SMM Review and Forecast of Copper Concentrate Market in June

The SMM Copper Concentrate Index in June rose by $2.91/mt on the month to $90.78/mt. The SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) for the week ending June 30 was $91.53/mt.

Transactions in spot copper concentrate market picked up during the month. The traded TCs of spot clean copper concentrates between a mine and a smelter, scheduled for August, were above $88/mt. One trader and a smelter traded spot clean ore, scheduled for August, with TCs of $93-94/mt. Inquiries of buyers who were optimistic over the market for clean ore that was scheduled to be shipped in August and September stood at $95/mt, while the sellers offered at above $88/mt. The price coefficient of Cu 20% domestic ore stood at 88.5-89.5%.

SMM understood that Antofagasta and Chinese smelters finalised Cu 50% copper concentrate TC/RCs under long-term contracts for 2024 at $88/mt and $0.088/mt, up $12/mt and $0.012/mt respectively, from those 2022.

According to foreign media reports, the "armed protection period" of MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru will end in early July. SMM expects community road blockages and strike protests in Peru in the third quarter will raise disruptions to spot copper concentrate supply in China in the second half of the year.

Codelco's Andina Copper Mine (with output of 177,000 mt of copper content in 2022) resumed production after a brief outage caused by the floods in Chile. The key infrastructure equipment of the mine was not affected, though some roads in the mining area were washed away. The production of the El Teniente underground mine of Codelco (with an annual output of 405,000 mt of copper content in 2022) was not affected by the weather, but a technician died due to an electrical accident, which caused the mine to stop production and began to investigate the cause of the accident. According to SMM survey, before the electrical accident at the El Teniente underground mine, the logistics efficiency had been reduced due to water accumulation on the surface of the mine and traffic restrictions on the road.

Teck Resources’ Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project will make the first shipment of copper concentrate in the third quarter of the year. If Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 can produce and ship copper concentrate as scheduled in the fourth quarter of the year, China’s copper concentrate supply will increase, bolstering spot TCs further.

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