Sharper Opinion Divergence on Lithium Carbonate Prices

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices drifted lower compared with the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened lower at 157,000 yuan/mt today, then fluctuated downward after the open. In the morning session, it traded weakly around the 156,000-157,000 yuan range, with an intraday high of 157,800 yuan/mt. Near midday, it quickly dropped to 153,200 yuan/mt, hitting a new intraday low. Around midday, prices seesawed repeatedly in the 154,000-156,000 yuan range. In the afternoon, bulls briefly pushed prices up but failed to break above the average price line. Prices weakened again in late trading, eventually closing down 3.2% at 154,800 yuan/mt, with open interest falling by 9,123 lots. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchased on dips as needed. At 155,000 yuan/mt and below, downstream spot order purchase willingness continued to recover. On the supply side, as prices drifted lower, willingness to sell spot orders remained weak, with some lithium chemical plants holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active.

[SMM Analysis: August Battery-Grade Lithium Sulphide Production Analysis: Will Q4 See a Surge?] In August, China's lithium sulphide production was 7.79 mt, up 3.6% MoM and up 143% YoY. Will lithium sulphide production surge in Q4? Based on downstream demand, this is currently relatively unlikely, but a mild volume expansion will continue. Average monthly production is expected to reach the 9-10 mt range, edging up from Q3 rather than jumping explosively.

SMM September 2: Albemarle completed a new round of bidding for spodumene concentrate from its Wodgina operation today. The tender volume was 15,840 dry metric tonnes, with a ±10% quantity tolerance. The final transaction price was reported at US$2,307/dmt CIF China, normalized to 6% Li₂O. The cargo is priced on a CIF Zhenjiang Port, China basis, excluding VAT. Payment terms are cash in advance, with payment required to be received by September 8.