High Lithium Ore Prices in Australia will Drive Lithium Prices Rebound, Reasons Prevent Output to Grow

Capchem disclosed its earnings forecast for the first three quarters. The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for the first three quarters of 2026 to be 1.53 billion to 1.58 billion yuan, up 104.53%-111.22% from the same period last year.

Lopal announced in an evening filing that its second-tier holding subsidiary Nanjing Lithium Source and Jiyao Tongxing signed a Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement. Under the agreement, provided that product settlement prices are competitive and delivery cycles, quality, and technology meet requirements, Nanjing Lithium Source and its affiliated producers will sell a combined 378,600-567,800 mt of LFP cathode materials to Jiyao Tongxing from 2026 to 2030, with specific sales volumes determined by orders. The specific unit price is subject to fluctuations in major raw material prices and will be determined monthly by both parties in accordance with the agreement terms.

This week, the battery industry chain showed divergent trends. Spot lithium ore was tight, but expectations of future supply growth weighed on prices. On October 12, the average spot price of lithium carbonate fell to 115,400 yuan/mt, down 6,950 yuan/mt in a single day. Futures declined with rising open interest, while social inventory continued to destock. Lithium hydroxide, cobalt salt, and nickel sulphate were under pressure, with cautious purchasing. Ternary cathode precursor, ternary cathode material, and LCO weakened along with raw materials. LFP orders were relatively strong, with high-quality production lines running near full capacity and finished product inventories declining. Iron phosphate operating rates were high, but resistance to price increases grew. Artificial graphite edged up, supported by costs and demand, while natural graphite operated at low levels. Separator was supported by NEV, energy storage, and export rush demand, with supply-demand conditions tight. Electrolyte rose due to lagged cost pass-through. Sodium-ion battery production and delivery were stable, while recycling-side inquiries recovered but transactions did not increase in volume. In news, CATL deepened cooperation with Seres. In the first three quarters, NEV production and sales both exceeded 12 million units. Export tax rebate policy adjustments and China-EU automotive trade consultations drew attention.