SMM Review of Domestic PV Market during National Day Holiday

SHANGHAI, Oct 9 (SMM) - The domestic photovoltaic (PV) market remained stable as a whole during the National Day holiday (October 1-7). The holiday coincides with the new round of monthly order negotiations for polysilicon. With the continuous disclosure of monthly order prices, the polysilicon prices stabilised gradually. As such, the prices across the downstream sectors stabilised as well on top of cost pressure. In the future, the growth of polysilicon supply is expected to be significant, hence the market is generally bearish on future prices of polysilicon as well as its downstream products.

Polysilicon: During the National Day, the upstream and downstream of polysilicon carried on the negotiations and signing of October long-term orders. Based on the market prices disclosed at the end of September, the price of orders signed during the holiday did not changed much, and mostly stood between 306-310 yuan/kg. Looking forward to the follow-up market, the current polysilicon supply growth is expected to be palpable, and the downstream also says no loudly to high-priced resources. With the absence of sufficient upside momentum, follow-up polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable as a whole. 

Silicon wafer: During the National Day holiday, the domestic wafer market showed no much changes. Since the polysilicon prices remained stable, it is difficult for the prices of silicon wafers to rise significantly. The mainstream transaction prices of monocrystalline silicon wafer M10 stood at 7.57 yuan/piece, and that of monocrystalline silicon wafer G12 was 10.03 yuan/piece. Wafer prices stabilised amid expected significant increase in domestic silicon wafer production in October as well as considerable cost pressure facing downstream players. After the holiday, due to the market's bearish view on polysilicon prices, silicon wafer manufacturers lack confidence in raising wafer prices. It is expected that silicon wafer prices will still remain stable in the short term.

Solar cell: During the National Day holiday, the cell companies built enough raw material stocks. At the same time, because the prices of silicon wafer and polysilicon did not increase significantly, the prices of cells remained stable as a sure bet. The mainstream transaction prices of monocrystalline PERC cell M10 stood at 1.31 yuan/W, and that of G12 was 1.31 yuan/W. According to SMM understanding, due to the expected increase in the operating rates of module companies in October, the procurement of solar cell will be active, and large-size cells are still in short supply. It is expected that the prices of solar cells of 182mm and 210mm specification will inch up.

Modules: During the National Day holiday, the module market remained stable. The peak season for domestic installations is approaching, and the overall operating rate of modules has increased. However, the module prices did not rise significantly with terminal power stations forcing down the prices. The mainstream transaction price of single-sided 182mm monocrystalline PERC module stood at 2 yuan/W, single-sided 210mm monocrystalline PERC module 1.99 yuan/W, double-sided 182mm monocrystalline PERC module 2.02 yuan/W, and double-sided 210mm monocrystalline PERC module 2.02 yuan/W. Looking forward to the near future, the downstream is about to usher in the peak season, and the demand for modules is expected to explode in stages. At the same time, with the continuous increase in the prices of solar cells, the module prices will rise as well.

PV glass: During the week-long holiday, the prices of PV glass did not change with the manufacturers maintaining stable production. The transactions dropped to some extent due to restricted transportation, and the manufacturers saw higher in-plant finished products inventory. On the first day after the holiday, market inquiries increased. But the prices for October have not yet been confirmed, which will be released in the following few days. SMM predicts that PV glass prices will rise in October under the dual influence of busy module production scheduling on the demand side and the high fuel prices on the cost side. 

EVA: During the National Day holiday, the prices of EVA granules and films remained stable and stood at 22,500-23,000 yuan/mt and 27,000-28,000 yuan/mt respectively. In terms of supply, Ningbo Formosa’s EVA equipment is still in the process of renovation, and other companies' PV-grade EVA granules are with intensive production schedules. It is expected that the overall output of EVA granules in October will be basically flat over that in September. After the festival, the prices of EVA granules and films are likely to extend the stability with pressure.