Macro Roundup (Aug 9)

SHANGHAI, Aug 9 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar firmed slightly against the yen on Monday, building on the strong gains made at the end of last week after surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data lifted expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening.

The greenback was last 0.1% higher at 135.155 yen, and earlier rose to 135.585 yen, its highest since July 28, after surging 1.57% in the previous session for its biggest single-day gain since June 17.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts, stood at 106.54, not far off from a Friday peak of 106.93, also the strongest since July 28.

Traders currently see a 70.5% probability the Fed continues the pace of 75 basis-point interest-rate increases for its next policy decision on Sept. 21, from about 41% before the strong payrolls data on Friday raised worries that wage growth would fuel inflationary pressures.

The focus this week will be on the U.S. consumer price index due Wednesday, and whether it can cement the odds for super-sized rate rises. Analysts polled by Reuters expect annual inflation eased to 8.7% in July from 9.1% previously.

U.S. stock futures rose slightly on Monday night after Wall Street weighed the outlook for chip stocks, and looked ahead to more earnings results and inflation data that will determine the pace of future interest rate hikes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 33 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.11% and 0.11%, respectively.

During Monday’s regular trading, the S&P 500 slipped 0.12%. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.10%. The Dow gained 29.07 points to close 0.09% higher.

Oil prices rose 1.5% on Monday, hovering near their lowest levels in months in volatile trading as positive economic data from China and the United States fed hopes for demand despite nagging fears of a recession.

Brent crude futures ended the day at $96.65 for a gain of 1.8%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 1.97% higher at $90.76 per barrel.

Last week, fears that a recession could dent energy demand pushed front-month Brent prices down 13.7% to their lowest since February. It was Brent’s biggest weekly drop since April 2020, and WTI lost 9.7%.

Gold prices rose on Monday following a pullback in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while investor focus shifted to U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike plan.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $1,788.39 per ounce. U.S. gold futures also settled up 0.8% at %1,804.8.

The dollar index fell 0.2%, making gold more appealing to other currency holders. U.S. Treasury yields also slipped.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed up 0.8%, with retail stocks adding 2.5% to lead gains as almost all sectors and major bourses climbed into positive territory.