Macro Roundup (Jul 25)

SHANGHAI, Jul 25 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last Friday and what is expected today.

The U.S. dollar shrugged off early weakness to edge higher against a basket of currencies on Friday after data showed U.S. business activity shrank for the first time in nearly two years in July as a services slowdown outweighed manufacturing growth.

S&P Global on Friday said its preliminary - or “flash” - U.S. Composite PMI Output Index had tumbled far more than expected to 47.5 this month from a final reading of 52.3 in June.

With a reading below 50 indicating business activity had contracted, it is a development likely to feed into a vocal debate over whether the U.S. economy is back in - or near - a recession after rebounding sharply from the downturn in early 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The dollar found some support from safe-haven flows late on Friday, as investors’ appetite for riskier assets diminished with U.S. indexes selling off on some weak earnings reports.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was 0.1% higher at 106.73. For the week the index was down 1.2%.

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Sunday night, coming off a positive week for the major averages, as traders brace for the busiest week of corporate earnings, as well as insights into further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 45 points, or 0.14%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.11% and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.01%, respectively.

On Friday, the major averages fell on the back of weaker-than-expected earnings from Snap that sent tech shares tumbling. The Dow lost 137.61 points, or 0.43%. The S&P 500 declined 0.93% to 3,961.63, while the Nasdaq Composite traded 1.87% lower at 11,834.11.

Still, all three benchmarks closed the week higher, with the Dow up 2%. The S&P 500 advanced about 2.6%, and the Nasdaq capped the week up 3.3%.

Oil prices fell on Friday on a weakening global demand outlook and the resumption of some Libyan crude oil output.

Brent crude futures settled 0.64% lower at $103.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.71% to $94.70.

The global economy looks increasingly likely to be heading into a serious slowdown, just as central banks aggressively reverse ultra-loose monetary policy adopted during the pandemic to support growth, data showed on Friday.

Gold headed for its first weekly gain in six on Friday as a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar’s decline bolstered non-yielding bullion’s safe-haven appeal as economic risks persisted.

Spot gold was up 0.29% to $1,723.34 per ounce and on track for a more than 1% weekly rise, following a strong rebound from more than a one-year low of $1,680.25 on Thursday.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $1,727.4.

The rebound was helped by a retreat in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields.

The Stoxx 600 closed 0.4% higher provisionally, with travel and leisure stocks climbing 2.4% as most sectors and major bourses finished in positive territory. The pan-European benchmark also had a good week overall, climbing almost 3%.