Short-term SHFE Tin Likely to Stay Low with Closure of the Import Window

SHANGHAI, Jun 8 (SMM) - With the improvement of the pandemic, the enterprises resume work in an orderly manner. And driven by such positive market sentiment, the metals market warmed up. But SHFE tin contract has been sluggish recently with expanding losses this week. The contract hit a low at 247,720 yuan/mt since September 2021 last night, and once recorded losses of 2.4%. LME tin, however, showed a totally different landscape, and moved all the way up in the past few days. As of 10:47 am Beijing time, SHFE tin dropped 0.84% while LME tin gained 0.42%.

In the spot market, SMM #1 tin was reported at 256,500 yuan/mt on average, down 0.48% from yesterday. Spot premiums were still the mainstream in the market on June 7, with non-deliverable and deliverable brands quoted against SHFE 2207 and 2206 contracts respectively. Imported refined tin was mostly offered in discounts of 3,000-1,500 yuan/mt. The price spread among domestic brands narrowed, but the spread between Guangdong and Shanghai was still palpable. Non-deliverable brands prices were still low.

According to SMM analysis, domestic warrants changed little on the fundamentals, and are likely to rise with muted shipment in the spot market and upcoming delivery of SHFE 2206. LME inventory se slightly, and that in North America posted small accumulation. The import window remained closed as LME tin outperformed SHFE contract. SMM believes that SHFE tin is very likely to remain low in the near term.