This year and next year is the peak year of shipbuilding steel demand in China.

In 2021, the total amount of shipbuilding steel in China is about 9.8 million tons, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year. It is expected that China's shipbuilding steel demand will maintain steady growth in the next five years, and will exceed 11 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year growth rate of 12%, and there is limited room for price decline.

2021: demand rebounds significantly, supply first suppresses, then rises, prices fluctuate, industrial cooperation strengthens.

Increasing demand for shipbuilding steel

In 2021, the international shipping market is picking up, the demand for container shipping is strong, and the global new shipbuilding market is active. China's shipping enterprises have accepted orders for new ships of 67.07 million deadweight tons, an increase of 131.8% over the same period last year. Among them, orders for all kinds of container ships are 27.38 million deadweight tons, accounting for 60.9% of the world total, and orders for green power ships account for about 24.4% of China's new ship orders. Driven by a sharp increase in new ship orders, the demand for shipbuilding steel rebounded significantly. According to preliminary statistics, the total amount of shipbuilding steel in China is about 9.8 million tons in 2021, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the demand for plates was 8.2 million tons, an increase of 2.5 percent over the same period last year; the demand for profiles was 900000 tons, an increase of 12.5 percent over the same period last year; and the demand for other varieties was 700000 tons, basically the same as the previous year.

Steel enterprises increase ship plate production

In 2021, the output of shipbuilding plates in China's iron and steel enterprises first suppressed and then increased. Shipbuilding plate production in January 2021 was 690000 tons (down 21.5% from a year earlier) and recovered rapidly from the second quarter to 760000 tons in November (up 7% from a year earlier). Backbone iron and steel enterprises continue to increase production efforts to meet the needs of shipyards. From a quarterly point of view, the average monthly output of shipbuilding boards in the first quarter of 2021 is 710000 tons, and the average monthly output in the second, third and fourth quarters is about 800000 tons.

In 2021, the number of iron and steel enterprises producing shipbuilding plates increased by 5 over the previous year, and 17 iron and steel enterprises produced 7.59 million tons of shipbuilding plates, including 4.63 million tons of high strength plates. Xiangtan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Minmetals Yingkou medium Plate, Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. are in the leading position, with shipbuilding plate output exceeding 1 million tons. For two consecutive years, the shipbuilding plate output of Shangang has increased by more than 50% compared with the same period last year. Liugang, Tangzhong Plate, E Steel, Handan Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel and other five enterprises have re-started the shipbuilding board production line in order to meet the needs of shipbuilding enterprises.

Continuous promotion of industrial application of high-end steel

In 2021, China's backbone iron and steel enterprises continue to promote the industrial application of steel for ships and marine engineering equipment. The Yinshan section steel of Laigang Group realizes batch production for the series of low temperature resistant marine steel of Arctic LNG (LNG)-2 project, and the world's first dual fuel super large crude oil tanker (VLCC) of Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is successfully completed, and the world's first dual fuel VLCC C LNG cryogenic storage tank built by Angang 9Ni Steel is successfully delivered. Egang won the supply right of 15000 tons of main structural steel plate for the first deepwater drilling rig construction project of more than 300m in China; the highest grade 250mm thickness marine engineering FH36 developed by Wugang of Hegang has passed the test certification of 5 classification societies, and the certified thickness and specifications have filled the domestic blank; Nangang marine high anti-crack toughness extra-thick steel plate has been evaluated by China Iron and Steel Association and successfully promoted to the market.

The price of shipbuilding board soars

The surge in prices has become a key word in the shipbuilding board market in 2021. The sharp rise in iron ore prices has pushed up the price of shipbuilding plates. In May 2021, the average prices of 6mm shipbuilding plates and 20mm shipbuilding plates reached 7136 yuan / ton and 6636 yuan / ton respectively, reaching a 10-year high. Although iron ore prices fluctuated to US $118 / ton at the end of 2021, down 27.2% from the beginning of the year, shipbuilding board prices did not decline significantly due to the impact of domestic supply and demand. At the end of December 2021, the average prices of 6mm and 20mm shipbuilding plates in China were 6010 yuan / ton and 5610 yuan / ton respectively, up 13.7% and 14.3% respectively over the beginning of the year.

In order to ensure the stability and safety of the shipbuilding board industry chain, the China Shipbuilding Industry Association cooperates closely with the China Iron and Steel Industry Association to actively build upstream and downstream supply and demand docking platforms, guide and encourage shipbuilding enterprises to sign long-term supply agreements with steel enterprises, ensure supply and stabilize prices, organize training courses on plate futures, and improve the risk hedging ability of shipbuilding enterprises. The group standard of "quality Classification of Steel for ship and Marine Engineering (2021 Edition)" will be revised and published to promote the formation of a collection and mining mechanism of high quality and high price, guide the healthy and healthy development of the market, and carry out in-depth exchanges and cooperation between upstream and downstream. We will continue to promote the research and development and industrialization of new marine steel products.

2022: the "steel demand" growth of high-end and new ships has an obvious peak, and there is limited room for the decline of ship plate prices in a year.

At the end of December 2021, China's hand-held ship orders reached 95.84 million deadweight tons, an increase of 34.8% over the same period last year, reaching a five-year high; the production guarantee factor of shipbuilding enterprises (the average amount of hand-held orders / completion in the past three years) is about 2.6 years. Most enterprises' production tasks are scheduled to 2024, and a few enterprises' production tasks have been arranged to 2025. In addition, the demand brought about by the traditional offshore oil and gas industry, the construction of offshore wind farms, the development of far-reaching marine aquaculture equipment and green energy strategy will also continue to exist. It is expected that in the next five years, the demand for steel in China's shipbuilding industry will maintain a steady growth, and will exceed 11 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year growth rate of 12%.

At present, with the explosive growth of these emerging markets, the far-reaching marine aquaculture equipment dominated by marine pastures, the marine oil and gas development dominated by green environmental protection upgrading, and the rapid development of new energy industries dominated by land and offshore wind power, will bring new demand for steel. Take offshore wind power as an example, China has surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world's first offshore wind power market, with a total installed capacity of 10.48 megawatts. The world's largest piling ship "Yihanjin pile 1" has been put into trial operation and the latest offshore wind power installation equipment such as "Fulang" floating wind power platform has been successfully developed and put into use, which has laid a solid foundation for the large-scale development of far-reaching offshore wind power in China. According to incomplete statistics, the demand for steel for offshore wind power towers and jackets and steel for far-reaching marine aquaculture equipment has increased by an average of about 200000 to 300000 tons per year.

In addition, in 2021, China's shipping enterprises continued to increase their international market share in the field of high-tech and high value-added ships, accepting orders for 69 super-large container ships of 15000TEU and above; undertaking 576000 deadweight tons of automobile carriers, accounting for 76.6 percent of the global total; and accepting orders for chemical tankers of 1.284 million deadweight tons, accounting for 72.7 percent of the global total. Orders for marine auxiliary ships and multi-purpose ships account for 64.7% and 63.3% of the global total, respectively. It is expected that in 2022, the proportion of large container ships, automobile ships, chemical tankers and LPG carriers will gradually increase, and the demand for crack arrest steel, Inwa steel, duplex stainless steel and high strength steel will maintain rapid growth.

The peak year of shipbuilding steel will be from 2022 to 2023, and the demand for various types of medium and heavy plates will remain high. although the prices of raw materials such as iron ore are expected to continue to fall, it is expected that there is limited room for shipbuilding plate prices to decline throughout the year.