The supply of coking coal has been tightened! The market is still dominated by concussion.

Tuesday (December 28) coking coal futures fell for two consecutive trading days, from the basis and the main contract spread, due to the continuous decline in the spot, resulting in the basis continued to converge, even due to steel mills resuming production expectations, the disk continued to rise after a small rise in coal warehouse orders. Recently, due to the decline in coal mine construction, the supply side of coking coal has been repaired from the fundamentals, and the fundamentals of coke stronger than coking coal have gradually changed.

Dayue Futures: pre-festival replenishment is expected to be the first to improve the demand for medium and high-grade ore.

The safety and environmental protection inspections of the main producing areas are still strict, affecting the continued tightening of coking coal market supply and good downstream demand, supporting the improvement of coking coal prices.

The bullish mood of the coke market is getting stronger, the demand for raw coal has increased, and some coke and steel enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing high-quality resources in winter storage. Generally speaking, it is expected that the coking coal will operate stably in the short term.

Guangfa Futures: Australian coal customs clearance accelerated, more coking coal temporarily left the market to wait and see.

Recently, due to the tightening of overproduction and safety inspection, and the completion of annual tasks in some large state-owned mines, coal mine production has been cut off and limited production, resulting in a further decline in coal mine output. However, the customs clearance of coal stranded in Hong Kong and Macao has been significantly accelerated, and the goods of some traders have also been released. The available time of Australian coal in Tangshan region is mostly 2-3 months.

As of December 24, the inventory of coking coal of all sample independent coking enterprises was 12.471 million tons, up 425600 tons from the previous month. The stock of coking coal produced by 247 steel mills was 9.7537 million tons, up 46500 tons from the previous month. The supply end of coking coal is expected to tighten strongly, the enthusiasm of coke enterprises to replenish the warehouse is higher, and there are more pre-sale orders in coal mines. The orders have basically been sold out before the end of the year, and it is difficult for some coking enterprises to take new orders.

The security situation in Shanxi is becoming more and more stringent, and the supply is further tightened towards the end of the year. However, recently, the clearance of Australian coal has been accelerated, and when the demand for finished materials is not good, the digestion time of Australian coal may be lengthened. On the whole, the fundamentals of coking coal have not changed fundamentally, but under the influence of short-term mood and weakness, it is recommended to leave the field and wait and see.

Zhejiang Merchants Futures: coking coal supply shrinks, spot rebounds

Long bargain, focus on 70000 support; long bargain, focus on 19000 support; multiple single holding; wait and see, focus on 138000 support.

Return to the ground step by step superimposed long process steel plant profits on the high side, steel plant iron ore raw materials replenishment, buy iron ore empty to hold; coke rose to the ground, flat spot, coke 05 contract wait and see, focus on pressure level 3300; coking coal supply contraction, spot rebound, empty coking profit position holding.

Hongye Futures: demand expectation weakens, Coking Coal Coke disk is greatly adjusted

The inspection of safety and environmental protection in the main producing areas has not been relaxed, the output of coal mines has declined slightly, and some coal mines have stopped and limited production when they have completed their annual tasks, the supply of coking coal market continues to shrink, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is good, and there is a strong support for coking coal prices. The bullish sentiment in the downstream coke market is strong, and the inventory of raw coal in the plant is low, the overall demand for raw coal is good, the supply of coking coal market is tight, and it is a little difficult for some coke and steel enterprises to replenish the stock of raw coal.

Some coke enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions once again raised the price of coke by 120 yuan / ton. The production of coke enterprises is relatively stable, the shipment is relatively smooth, most of the inventory in the factory remains low, and there is no inventory in some coke enterprises, and considering that some coke enterprises are disturbed by environmental protection or limited production expectations, coke supply may tend to be tight. Coke enterprises are willing to increase the price of coke. In the near future, under the disturbance of environmental protection and other factors, the coke supply may be reduced, and under the background that the double control of energy consumption is coming to an end and the blast furnace resumes production one after another, the demand for coke in steel mills has improved and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased.

Overall, combined with the current total inventory of coking coal and the rebound of short-disk freight of Mongolian coal, the price of coking coal may rebound in the short term, and coke is strongly supported by the cost of coking coal. At the close of trading in the afternoon Beijing time, the main coking coal fell 3.33% to 2166 yuan / ton.