SMM: since late November, the average price of electrolytic cobalt in China has risen one after another. According to the spot price of SMM, as of December 6, the average spot price of electrolytic cobalt was 449000 yuan / ton, rising to the highest level since November 2018. An increase of 35500 yuan / ton over November 23, equivalent to an one-day increase of more than 4400 yuan / ton in just eight trading days.
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With regard to the reasons for the recent rise in cobalt prices, Tianfeng Securities analysis said that on the one hand, the global production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow high, driving the market demand for cobalt; on the other hand, the continuing supply-side epidemic in Africa and the chaos of international shipping also led to a continuous decline in the import of cobalt raw materials to a certain extent.
For the future cobalt price trend, SMM believes that, taking into account the current electrolytic cobalt prices have risen to an all-time high since November 2018, intermediate goods inventory continues to be tight, prices continue to rise, domestic smelting enterprises due to high raw material costs, low willingness to prepare and inquiry, currently mainly consume inventory, so SMM expects future salt prices will rise slightly, electrolytic cobalt and intermediate prices will remain high. "View details
SMM's view on the future price of cobalt also coincides with that of many institutions. Huaan Securities said that the tight supply of cobalt resources is expected to rise because of the recent outbreak in South Africa, which has a significant impact on logistics in Africa, and the Congo, the main producer of cobalt, mostly needs to be exported through South Africa.
Guotai Junan Securities also said frankly that the epidemic in South Africa has repeatedly led to a shortage of cobalt supply for some time in the future, while considering the strong demand in Europe and the United States, cobalt stocks will continue to be consumed, the upward trend of cobalt prices is determined.
Huaan Securities believes that in the context of the expected warming of cobalt supply, superimposed by the domestic new energy vehicle boom, a sharp rise in production and sales support the growth of production and sales of ternary batteries, and cobalt prices are expected to show an upward trend in the future.
Galaxy Securities boldly predicts that the South African mutation novel coronavirus Omicron fermentation may affect the DRC-South Africa-China global cobalt raw material supply chain, and the domestic cobalt raw material inventory may remain tight until the first quarter of next year.
