The global electric vehicle development scenery storage project planning continues to push forward.

I. New Energy vehicles

The number of new energy vehicles registered in six European countries increased month-on-month in September.

Under the general trend of stringent carbon emission requirements, the number of new energy vehicles registered in European countries has maintained a rising trend, and the penetration rate has continued to rise, and we are optimistic about the middle and upper reaches suppliers with stable and good supply capacity in the European market.

In September, Xilai and Xiaopeng delivered more than 10,000 new energy vehicles.

Domestic new power new energy vehicle delivery performance is excellent, Lai and Xiaopeng set a monthly delivery record, September delivery volume are more than 10,000, it is expected that the domestic new energy vehicle penetration rate is expected to further increase in September. With the promotion of policy support, the superimposed domestic new energy vehicle market has ushered in a peak sales season, and new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to grow.

Tesla's 21Q3 output and delivery continued to increase month-on-month.

Driven by Model 3, Model Y and other best-selling models, Tesla 21Q3 production and delivery continued to grow. With the continuous expansion of the scale of production capacity and the improvement of the richness of superimposed models, it is expected that the output and delivery volume of Tesla new energy vehicles will rise to a higher level.

Core ideas:

With the continuous improvement of the sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles, as well as the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, supply will drive the change of demand, the penetration of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and sales are expected to grow rapidly. Look at this:

1) leading high growth, high certainty opportunities, core supply chains with best-selling potential models such as Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Ningde Times, LG Chemical, New Power and Hongguang MINI EV;

2) subdivide the track leader, which has a significant technical / cost moat advantage in the industry competition;

3) long life, fast charging demand expansion, driving technical innovation, product iterative cathode materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links;

4) the development of high-end + economic polarization leads to the increase in the demand of high-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the continuous optimization of ternary cathode materials under the high-nickel trend;

5) the growth of sales leads to the increase of demand, and the diaphragm, copper foil and lithium hexafluorophosphate are expected to be tight;

6) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the related targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;

7) the second-tier target that benefits from the growth of industries and the continuous improvement of their competitiveness is expected to lead to the expansion of market share;

8) subdivision links with structural opportunities such as energy storage and two-wheelers, as well as continuous improvement of recharging facilities;

Beneficiary targets: Ningde Times, Tiannai Technology, Enjie shares, Xingyuan Materials, Jiayuan Technology, Zhongwei shares, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Zhenyu Technology, Rongbai Technology, Sinopec Technology, Nord shares, Pu Tailai, Paron Technology, Diansi Materials, Zhongke Electric, Funeng Technology, German Nano, Penghui Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Hongfa shares, Kodali, Trade and so on.

II. New energy sources

The total scale of indemnificatory grid-connected centralized wind power and photovoltaic projects in Inner Mongolia exceeds 10GW in 2021.

The continuous landing of wind power and photovoltaic projects will support the development of renewable energy in recent years. Recently, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jilin and other provinces have issued relevant documents on the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic projects, and the overall scale is relatively optimistic. We believe that the continuous landing of the planned project is expected to provide strong support for the development of renewable energy dominated by wind power and photovoltaic in recent years and during the 14th five-year Plan period.

Base-based, large-scale development + UHV project construction is expected to expand the space for the development of renewable energy. On October 8th, Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, which mentioned: to speed up the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases in the desert and Gobi desert. We believe that the base and large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic projects can effectively improve resource utilization and development efficiency, and the gradual promotion of the construction of UHV transmission channels can effectively solve the problem of renewable energy consumption. The scale of wind power and photovoltaic base development in the three northern regions is expected to increase significantly in the future.

Energy storage is expected to usher in development opportunities with the increase of the scale of renewable energy. The configuration of energy storage on the generation side can solve the problems of discontinuity and instability of renewable energy generation from the power supply side, reduce the abandonment rate of wind and light, and enhance the absorption capacity of renewable energy. The "guidance on accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" issued earlier has improved the policy mechanism from many aspects, and the wind power and photovoltaic construction projects introduced by many provinces this year require the allocation of energy storage. We believe that energy storage is expected to usher in development opportunities with the increase of the scale of renewable energy grid connection.

Core ideas:

(1) Photovoltaic

In the short term, the game pattern on the manufacturing side and the demand side of each link is gradually clear, and the domestic installed demand is expected to start in the second half of the year; in the medium to long term, carbon peak, carbon neutralization and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in 2030 will reach about 25%. Photovoltaic and other important roles in carbon emission reduction will be played in the future.

Distributed photovoltaic is an important part of the new installation demand of photovoltaic. With the gradual landing of the pilot work of distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city and district), on the one hand, it provides increment for the new installed scale of photovoltaic; on the other hand, suppliers with the advantages of channels or development resources are expected to benefit.

Pay attention to the relationship between supply and demand under market changes and the structural opportunities under technological changes, such as silicon, EVA resin, energy storage, photovoltaic inverter, photovoltaic film, carbon / carbon composite thermal field, tracking bracket, heterojunction battery, large size silicon wafer and battery wafer, etc.

Cost advantage and technology leadership are the foothold of photovoltaic product enterprises, the rapid rise of upstream prices will accelerate the clearing of the industry, the discourse power of the centralized link of market share will be enhanced, and attention should be paid to the alpha opportunities of the head enterprises. vertical integration manufacturers are expected to show product competitive advantage when prices fluctuate.

With the resolution of the subsidy gap and the subsequent new projects away from subsidy dependence, operators are expected to usher in a revaluation.

Beneficiary targets: Tongwei shares, Lianhong Xinke, Sunshine Power, Jinlang Technology, Zhengtai Electric Appliances, Longji shares, Jing O Technology, Trina Solar, Jinbo shares, Foster, CITIC Bo, Haiyou New Materials, Beijing Express, Aixu shares, Follett, Solar and so on.

(2) Wind power

In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve "carbon neutralization". We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry. In the short term, after the parity of onshore wind power, both the installed scale and the bidding volume have increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the trend of large-scale has promoted the decline of cost, the increase of scale and the enhancement of industry concentration. At present, the valuation of wind power plate is lower than that of photovoltaic plate and has configuration value.

Focus on the following investment opportunities: 1) the trend of large-scale wind turbines is clear, focusing on tower cylinders, bearings, fans, blades, castings, etc.; 2) paying attention to the competitive advantages of wind power spindle bearings and other key components manufacturers and the progress of domestic substitution; 3) paying attention to benefiting from offshore wind power related targets; 4) paying attention to benefiting from overseas incremental market space targets.

Beneficiary targets: Daijin heavy Industry, Tianshun Wind Energy, New Qiang Alliance, vast specialties, Yunda shares, Riyue shares, Sinopec Science and Technology, Jinfeng Technology, Mingyang Intelligence, Oriental Cable and so on.

Risk hints: the development of the new energy vehicle industry is not up to expectations; the installation of new energy and the improvement of power cuts are not up to expectations; the risk of a substantial decline in product prices; the risk of the development of the epidemic exceeding expectations.