SMM6 March 22: in the online market live conference hosted by SMM, SMM analyst Hou Jinchen published what kind of mystery behind the rise of rare earth permanent magnet industry? During the live broadcast of the theme, the meeting mainly introduced the current situation of the rare earth permanent magnet material industry, as well as the supply and demand situation of the high-performance NdFeB market, and finally returned to the market, introduced and summarized the development trend of the rare earth permanent magnet material industry.
Present situation of rare Earth permanent Magnet material Industry
Rare earth permanent magnets are divided into three categories, among which sintered NdFeB belongs to the third generation rare earth permanent magnets. NdFeB downstream has a wide range of applications, including automotive industry, energy-saving household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial motors and others.
The production of NdFeB magnetic materials in the world is concentrated in China and Japan, and the output of sintered NdFeB is the largest.
According to the China rare Earth Industry Association, the total output of rare earth magnetic materials in 2019 was about 180000 tons, and Ningbo contributed about 38.9% of the total production of rare earth permanent magnet materials. Zhejiang, Shanxi, Shandong, Inner Mongolia. According to the intrinsic coercivity, NdFeB magnetic products are usually divided into seven categories: n series, M series, H series, SH series, UH series, EH series and TH series. Zhejiang, which has the largest label, accounts for about 38.7%, less than 40%.
In addition, rare earth permanent magnets have different shapes and belong to non-standard products.
Neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet material is a permanent magnet material based on intermetallic compound Re2 alloy 14B. The main components are rare earth element neodymium (Nd) 29% Mel 32.5%, iron (Fe) 63.9% Mel 68.7%, non-metallic element boron (B) 1.1% Mel 1.2%. In order to obtain some neodymium with different properties, dysprosium (Dy), praseodymium (Pr) and other rare earth metals such as dysprosium (Co) and praseodymium (Al) can be used to replace part of neodymium. The boron content is small, but it plays an important role in the formation of tetragonal crystal structure intermetallic compounds, so that the compounds have high saturation magnetization, high uniaxial anisotropy and high Curie temperature. The maximum magnetic energy product (BH) max and the remanent Br, intrinsic coercivity HcJ, magnetic induction coercivity HcB are required and distinguished according to the different grades of the intrinsic coercivity HcJ.
In recent years, the demand for wind power generation and new energy vehicles has increased rapidly, which puts forward higher requirements for the coercivity and temperature stability of NdFeB permanent magnet materials, which are required to work above 200 ℃. Increasing the amount of dysprosium can significantly improve the coercivity and temperature stability of the materials.
The traditional element addition method is added in the melting process, that is, Dy is melted together with Nd, Fe, B and other elements. In the final magnet, there is Dy distribution in both the grain boundary and the main phase in the grain. However, some studies have shown that Dy at the grain boundary plays the most significant role in improving the coercivity.
Japan first put forward the concept of "grain boundary diffusion". They adopted a special process to make Dy exist only in the grain boundary but not into the grain, which not only improved the properties of NdFeB materials, but also greatly reduced the total amount of Dy elements and reduced the cost of materials.
There are two ways to reduce the amount of dysprosium by NdFeB: grain refinement and grain boundary diffusion. Through crystal grain refinement, the content of dysprosium is expected to be reduced by about 1-2%, and the content of dysprosium is expected to be reduced by about 2-3% by grain boundary diffusion method. Taken together, it can be reduced by about 5%.
In 2020, exports of rare earth permanent magnets exceeded 40,000 tons, with 88% of permanent magnets and articles prepared to make permanent magnets after magnetization.
Supply and demand of high performance NdFeB market
In 2018, the global NdFeB blank output is 185000 tons, and the high-performance NdFeB blank output accounts for 26%. China's NdFeB blank output is 157000 tons, with high-performance NdFeB blank accounting for 26%.
Rare earth industry association data show that: at present, both the global market and the domestic market, rare earth permanent magnet materials show a low-end supply oversupply, high-end supply shortage. Take NdFeB magnetic blank as an example, according to the data of China rare Earth Industry Association, the global output of NdFeB blank is 185000 tons in 2018, of which the output of high-performance NdFeB blank is only 48000 tons, accounting for about 26%. China's NdFeB blank production of 157000 tons, of which high-performance NdFeB blank production is only 23000 tons, accounting for about 15%.
In order to encourage the development of high-performance permanent magnet materials industry, export tariffs were abolished in 2010. Neodymium-iron-boron alloy quick-solidified permanent magnet materials are classified as "other ferroalloys" in the tariff before 2010, and a 20% export tariff is levied. Considering that there are great differences between this product and ordinary ferroalloy in production process, product performance and use, the product is magnetized into permanent magnet after processing, which is mainly used in computer, communication products, electronic equipment and other high-tech fields. In order to support the development of China's high-performance permanent magnet industry and further refine the tariff classification of NdFeB alloy permanent magnetic materials, the tariff item of "NdFeB alloy quick-solidified permanent magnetic sheet" was added in the 2010 tariff implementation plan, and its export tariff of 20% was abolished. At present, the export of four types of rare earth permanent magnet materials related products are not tariff, and do not involve export quotas.
Development trend of rare Earth permanent Magnet material Industry
From the perspective of exports to major trading partners, a large number of China's rare earth permanent magnet products have been exported to Europe, the United States and East Asia, most of which are developed countries with a high level of science and technology. Taking the export data in 2020 as an example, the top five countries are Germany (15%), the United States (14%), South Korea (10%), Vietnam and Thailand.
Affected by the trade conflict between China and the United States from 2018 to 2019, the export volume of magnetic materials in China has declined. As mentioned earlier, China has the unique advantage of rare earth resources in the development of rare earth permanent magnet materials, which promotes the rapid development of China's rare earth permanent magnet material industry in recent years, relying on the advantage of low cost and low pricing occupies most of the market share in the world. however, this has also led to a certain degree of overcapacity, forming a buyer's market. Under this market background, in the process of bidding and selling of Chinese rare earth permanent magnet material enterprises in the international market, the buyer suppresses the price by comparison, and there is also a bidding situation among domestic enterprises, which finally leads to the transaction price on the low side and may even be lower than the cost price, resulting in damage to the interests of the enterprise. Competitive export also exists in lanthanum and cerium products. Previously, it was thought that China was also subject to great restrictions on patents. According to the Ministry of Commerce, because Hitachi Metal has applied for a NdFeB patent in the United States, Chinese enterprises can only have their patent authorization. in order to export products to the United States market without Hitachi metal patent authorization of Chinese rare earth permanent magnet products can not be exported to the United States and other designated countries. However, according to industry insiders, at present, many patents have expired, and the main question is whether they can make products that meet customer requirements.
At present, the downstream demand of rare earth permanent magnets continues to increase. Cars are the largest consumer downstream of high-performance NdFeB, accounting for as much as 50%. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for cars has continued to rise, driving the demand for rare earth permanent magnets. In addition, the output of industrial robots and elevators in China is expected to continue to rise. There are broad prospects for the development of the elevator industry in the future, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, from the perspective of building stock, urbanization and aging promote the renewal and installation of elevators in existing buildings; second, from the perspective of building increment, elevators have become standard for new houses. In terms of air conditioning, global warming brings great prospects for the European air conditioning market. The air-conditioning penetration rate is 90% in the United States, 89% in Japan and 60% in China, while it is only 4% in Europe. According to data from the International Energy Organization, there will be 110 million air conditioners installed in Europe in 2019, and that number will reach 275 million by 2050.
In terms of electric power, at present, with the sustained and stable development of China's economy and the steady progress of industrial process, the demand for electric power is bound to increase day by day. Therefore, China's medium-and long-term power demand situation is optimistic, and the power industry will continue to maintain a high level of prosperity. In addition, with the increasing awareness of environmental protection, in the context of the growing global demand for energy, the promotion and application of clean energy has become an inevitable trend. The main ways of power generation in China are thermal power generation, hydroelectric power generation, wind power generation, nuclear power generation and solar power generation. In recent years, the wind power industry has developed rapidly. In the first half of 2021, China's installed wind power capacity grew at a year-on-year growth rate of 26.6%, ranking first in the year-on-year growth rate.
In terms of wind power, according to the data of the National Energy Administration, affected by the decline of wind power subsidies, there is a wave of rush to install, and the domestic installed capacity of wind power in 2020 is 71.7 GW (gigawatts). In recent years, as the construction technology of onshore wind power in China has become more and more mature, coupled with the broader offshore wind power resources, the national wind power development policy is gradually inclined to offshore power generation. During the period from the Twelfth five-year Plan to the 14th five-year Plan, with the implementation of relevant policies, offshore wind power in China has developed rapidly, and offshore wind power projects in coastal provinces and cities have landed rapidly.