The prices of black commodities such as steel have risen continuously.

Analysts remind us to look at it rationally and do a good job in risk control.

On May 10, the prices of black commodities such as steel rose sharply, and the main contracts for rebar, hot coil, wire rod and iron ore futures all closed at the daily limit, of which rebar and hot coil futures contracts hit the limit in early trading, setting a new high since listing. Analysts believe that the current market is in a state of excitement, which is directly related to the continuous rise in spot prices, further increase in demand, global monetary easing and other factors.

On the 10th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice saying that since trading on May 12 (that is, the night trading on May 11), the handling fee for open positions in rebar futures 2110 contracts has been adjusted to 1/10000 of the transaction amount, and the handling fee for hot coil futures 2110 contracts has been adjusted to 1/10000 of the transaction amount.

Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures, told the Futures Daily that the prices of rebar and hot rolls have risen sharply, mainly for the following reasons: first, the current macro level is still interpreting the inflation logic after last year's global "big release". Commodity prices in major sectors have risen sharply in an all-round way. Second, the theme of crude steel output removal at the industrial level has been continuously strengthened, and the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are organizing the national steel production capacity "looking back" and crude steel production reduction work; third, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a statement on indefinitely suspending all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue mechanism, Sino-Australian relations are tense, and there may be some uncertainty in the import of iron and steel-related raw materials. Fourth, foreign prices are high, the export of steel mills is better, and the export quotations of some steel mills have reached 1000 US dollars / ton, which gives a strong boost to domestic prices. Fifth, spot prices have risen recently. Spot prices of rebar in most markets have risen by 300 Mel 400 yuan / ton, Tangshan strip steel by 420 yuan / ton, and Tangshan billet by 280 yuan / ton. steel prices except billets have comprehensively broken through the all-time high in 2008, and many steel mills and traders have not been able to ship the goods.

"this year is a big bull market for iron and steel, and the balance sheet of supply and demand determines that steel prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall." Shi, head of the Shanghai Securities Futures Research Institute, said that steel demand this year is expected to increase by more than 3% year-on-year, driving steel consumption to increase by more than 30 million tons. Under the background of carbon neutralization, steel production has been effectively controlled, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly proposed to make steel production decline this year compared with the same period last year. Tangshan and other places have seen a significant decline in production due to production restrictions on environmental protection. The increase in demand has been accompanied by a decline in supply, and great changes have taken place in the balance sheet of supply and demand for iron and steel. In the context of loose liquidity, global commodities have risen sharply, and steel prices, as a representative variety of commodities, are naturally easy to rise and difficult to fall.

Li Boya, black business department of Yide Futures, believes that during the May Day holiday, the direct and indirect demand for foreign steel increased significantly, the mood of domestic terminal replenishment was driven, the actual terminal demand superimposed speculative hoarding and replenishment, and the panic buying atmosphere was thick. the spot market continues to rise, and prices will remain strong driven by short-term sentiment. However, after the rapid rise, the risk is also accumulating, reflected in the overall production continues to increase, hot coil production accumulation and so on, but in the current atmosphere these factors are easy to be ignored.

"the current market sentiment is still in a state of excitement, and it is expected that the short-term strength will still be difficult to change." Qiu Yuecheng said that the spot prices of rebar and hot coiling period have reached record highs, the acceptability of downstream users has weakened, and terminal demand may decline in the later stage. In addition, with rising prices, steel mills and traders have rich profits in the hands of resources, once there are changes in the market, the realization of profit resources will bring adjustment pressure to the market. He suggested that investors should be rational bullish and do a good job of risk control while participating.

Huatai Futures Research Institute black building materials research group also believes that it is necessary to look at the market rationally. Although steel prices have risen sharply, domestic steel prices are still among the lowest in the world. An important reason for the rise in steel prices this round is the strong recovery of foreign demand. In addition, the rise in raw material costs is also a driving factor for the rise in steel prices, so we need to pay attention to foreign order persistence, foreign prices, domestic downstream replenishment and other risk factors.