The strategy of the top ten brokerages: to be patient and moderate to grasp the pro-cyclical market under concussion.

There are only two trading days this week because of Labour Day short holiday. The A-share market fell slightly during the week, and there was a divergence between industries. The early growth category "core assets" led the decline, while the cycle and value style were dominant. It triggered a discussion on the pro-cyclical layout of the organization.

Open source securities: layout cycle, before it's too late

With the return of the value sector this week, the open source strategy team said that the current market "trading inflation" is growing, which is an opportunity for the cycle, but for the early high valuation sector will also continue to suppress. The dominance of cycle and value style will be the main line for some time in the future, and it is not too late, and it is still the best layout window rather than the end point.

From the perspective of transaction structure, traditional value plate and undervalued value plate are being widely excavated by northward investors, which may be closely related to the resonance of global value and cyclical style. At the same time, export data continues to increase, and manufacturing investment shows a pattern of "big is better than small". With the economic spread and the rebalancing of credit after the first quarter, the investment of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to pick up.

At present, it is in the process of distributing the incremental profits of the industrial chain to the upper reaches, and this process will probably continue, which means that the profit elasticity of the middle and upper reaches cycle is gradually strengthening and lasting for a long time. Cyclical stocks with low valuation in the past now have two major advantages of short-term upside and long-term company capacity value improvement, open source securities still recommend the following two main lines: (1) steel, aluminum, coal, chemical (chemical fiber, PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide); (2) banks (less than 1 times PB), construction, real estate.

Citic Construction Investment Co., Ltd.: the cycle accelerates the uplink and continuously recommends the banking sector.

The post-holiday market as a whole ushered in the adjustment, individual stocks in the two cities fell more and rose less, and the investment mood was more cautious. With the differentiation of the plate, steel, mining, non-ferrous metals and shipping supported by the rising prices of underlying commodities have become the main varieties to support the market. in addition, banks have still contributed to the stability of the Shanghai Composite Index. Citic Construction Investment Strategy team said that if production capacity remains stable, the price of cyclical products is expected to remain high and the base effect will gradually fade. If the imbalance between supply and demand persists, prices such as steel and coal may continue to rise, and the risk of production stagflation needs to be paid close attention to.

From a liquidity perspective, the central bank keeps liquidity stable, but needs to pay attention to the actions it may take to deal with inflation. Citic Construction will keep a close eye on the continued performance of commodities and cyclical sectors. From the perspective of risk control, continue to recommend the banking sector.

Huaan Securities: the three major factors aggravate the differentiation, and the concussive market continues to deduce.

Hua an strategy team analyzed that the central bank's recovery of short-term liquidity, the liberalization of intellectual property rights for vaccines and lower-than-expected consumption during the May Day holiday led to a 6% drop in the gem index in two trading days. But at present, the market does not have the conditions for a trend decline or a sustained sharp fall. The overall market pattern is still volatile. In the fluctuating market, we still need to look for opportunities for high prosperity, low valuation and recovery of post-epidemic consumption. Thematic investment opportunities continue to focus on "carbon neutralization" throughout the year.

Societe Generale Securities: harvest cycle, layout growth

Societe Generale strategy Wang Delun team said that at present, the dust has settled in the first quarter, the demand-driven earnings continue to rise, and the cyclical growth performance is good. The monetary policy is "reasonable and abundant", and the macro policy is continuous and stable. Looking back, if May brings disturbance to the short-term market because of preventing and defusing risks, it is a good opportunity for a better layout of cost-effective and high-quality companies.

The main line of industry configuration is harvest cycle and layout growth. Entering the performance window, on the one hand, bulk prices repeatedly hit record highs, and under tight supply, cyclical stocks can seize wave-band opportunities; on the other hand, after the performance release, the valuation of the growth sector has dropped significantly, the current valuation performance-to-price ratio is outstanding, and the fund overallocation ratio is low. can be laid out in advance.

In the subdivision of the industry, it is recommended to lay out the coal, copper, aluminum and lithium in the upstream raw materials; chemical fiber, MDI, titanium dioxide, coal chemical industry, pesticides, iron and steel, plasterboard, glass, hydropower, and professional engineering in construction in the middle reaches; new energy automobile chains, construction machinery, military integrated circuits, paper making and aviation in the middle reaches of industries; animal vaccines, spirits, beer and white electricity in downstream consumer goods; Passive components in TMT, video websites, smart car chains; banks in financial real estate.

Anxin strategy: patience is needed as a whole, and the cycle is moderately grasped.

Chen Guo team of Anxin Strategy said that at present, China's economic inflation risk is low, the policy environment is still friendly, there is no systemic risk, and the market will continue to be in a volatile pattern.

For A-shares, the increase in the price of upstream raw materials may have an impact on some mid-stream manufacturing profits, but due to the improvement of industry bargaining power and cost control power, the cost impact of general machinery, special equipment, high and low voltage equipment and other industries is expected to be reduced. At the same time, the gross profit margin of semiconductors, components and other sectors is more related to the economy, so there is no fear of rising raw material costs, the current high boom is expected to enhance the profitability of the sector.

Configuration suggests short-term grasp of commodity rising cycle plate opportunities, focusing on: coal, lithium ore, titanium dioxide, copper, aluminum, banks, waterproof materials, cement and so on. In the medium term, it is suggested that we should continue to take prosperity as the main axis, expand the variety to the second-tier varieties and small track leaders, and gradually increase the positions in electronics, medicine, Dianxin, machinery, light industry and other industries.

Guotai Junan: the concussion pattern remains the same, and the game balance is tilted to the denominator temporarily.

Guotai Junan strategy team believes that in the past earnings season, listed companies reported high profits in the first quarter, but the current top of inflation is uncertain, and the industry structure of profit advantage is still relatively vague from a medium-term perspective. The game focus to the denominator is the right choice. At the meeting of the Politburo in April, it again mentioned "no sharp turn" and added "stability expectations". On the other hand, the temporary slowdown of denominator constraints brings a new margin.

The possible marginal pressure on risk appetite in 2021 lies in domestic local financial risks, it said. It is necessary to guard against the impact of reducing leverage and preventing risks on the equity market in the second half of the year.

In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to take a trilogy: continue to enjoy carbon neutrality, pay close attention to manufacturing dividends, and lay out the growth of science and technology. At the industry level, we will continue to pay attention to carbon neutralization and the steel, non-ferrous and other industries under the influence of China and Australia. In addition, it is entering the middle stage of manufacturing, the starting point of scientific and technological growth, focusing on manufacturing under the logic of capital expenditure and the technological growth of final thinking of profit advantage. Key recommendations: 1) carbon neutralization theme; 2) Manufacturing: industrial equipment; 3) Science and Technology growth: new Energy, Electronics, Medicine.

Yue Kai Securities: pro-cyclical style back to dominance, be patient

The Yue Kai strategy team said that the pro-cyclical sector performed in the two trading days after the festival, mainly due to the recent repeated external environment, the drivers of the previous one-quarter report have been fully digested, and the high-valued technology sector is facing a relative increase in uncertainty. pro-cyclical business logic is back to dominate. Before the uncertainty of the liquidity inflection point falls to the ground, core assets that are more sensitive to interest rates or maintain volatility can focus on the sectors supported by prosperity or performance on the molecular side. In terms of configuration direction, investors are advised to be patient and pay attention to two main lines:

First, focus on underestimating pro-cyclical industries. In the context of sustained economic recovery, internal and external demand will achieve resonance, leading to a pick-up in demand. Superimposed production restrictions and improved environmental protection requirements have brought about a short-term gap between supply and demand and the expectation of rising steel prices, which is good for leading enterprises with low energy and strong carbon reduction capacity in the medium and long term. Follow-up sustainable focus on pro-cyclical industry structural investment opportunities. Second, the previous adjustment is relatively in place, while the annual report and quarterly report profits have increased significantly and the main line of sustainable cost-effective growth, such as advanced manufacturing, consumer electronics and so on.

Guosheng Securities: dealing with inflationary pressure from the structural level

Prices of commodities closely related to industrial production, including copper, aluminium, iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal, have risen sharply again since April. The Guosheng strategy team believes that rising inflation has once again become a major concern in the market and triggered recent structural adjustments. But at present, inflationary pressures have not caused a liquidity squeeze. There is no systemic risk in the market.

Therefore, it is suggested that we should continue to deal with inflationary pressure from the structural level in three directions. 1) steel, non-ferrous, coal and other upstream sectors related to rising commodity prices and PPI, which can hedge against the upward risk of inflation; 2) resist the upward pressure of inflation through the certainty of the boom and high growth in performance, such as new energy, semiconductors, chemicals and other sectors; 3) in the market turmoil, focus on low valuation, cost-effective banking, insurance and other sectors.

Soochow Securities: a pro-cyclical rebound, focusing on the rise in volume and price

The Soochow strategy team is optimistic about the fundamentals of the second quarter. First, the continued high export growth reflects a solid recovery in global demand; second, employment improves income after the epidemic, and consumption has the incentive to repair continuously. Third, high-frequency data show inventory digestion and production upward, also pointing to the marginal improvement of the real economy. In sharp contrast to the slowing down of the economic margin in the first quarter, the economy showed an improvement pattern in the second quarter.

However, downside risks remain because expectations of tighter liquidity at home and abroad have triggered volatility in global stock markets, and the pro-cycle has turned to the logic of rising both volume and price. The rise in commodities and stock prices in the previous round came more from the price rise in anticipation of a recovery. More evidence of demand for subsequent pro-cyclical increases. At present, the marginal demand at home and abroad is good, and the operation contradiction of pro-cyclical plate comes more from high performance and low position. There is a high increase in the performance of the pro-cyclical sector in the first quarter, but the position of public funds did not increase significantly in the first quarter, and the overall position is still at a low level in the past five years, which makes it easier to see short and short, and it is difficult to obtain the blessing of long-term valuation improvement.

The Soochow strategy team suggests paying attention to the rising volume and price branches of the cyclical plate: non-ferrous, chemical, iron and steel, coal, machinery, banking, and utilities.

Huaxi Securities: oversold rebound is coming to an end, it is recommended to wait carefully.

Huaxi strategy team believes that the oversold market rebound in May is coming to an end, so it is recommended to wait carefully. With the improvement of the overseas epidemic situation in May, the slow withdrawal of global central bank easing policy is the main direction; the acceleration of local bond issuance may disturb inter-bank liquidity. In the environment of reduced market risk appetite, the pressure to lift the ban on the sale of shares increases or affects the pace of A-share trend. At the same time, inflation concerns are difficult to ease in the short term, and market sentiment will take time to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: 1) industries that reported improved performance and benefited from the rebound in PPI in the first quarter, such as "chemical industry and extractive industry"; 2) industries with high dividend yield, such as "steel and banking"; and 3) the Politburo meeting emphasized the theme of accelerating development: "carbon neutralization".