Coal prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize this week.

Market forecast, the spring thermal coal market is generally not favored by the industry, especially after the heating period, the slow recovery of water and electricity, the decline of civil power load. If at this time, the recovery of industrial power consumption is slow, the daily consumption of power plants will be low, the coal market will remain loose, and coal prices will show a downward trend. However, this year, the situation is somewhat special. under the initiative of "celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot," many people choose to stay at work or even continue to work this year. After the Spring Festival, industrial enterprises will resume work and production will be accelerated in March, and the market will soon improve. The daily consumption of power plants has returned to a high level, boosting coal prices to rise.

In April, as the power plant units are overhauled, the daily consumption decreases, and the demand gradually weakens. In the first ten days, there was no significant increase in power plant procurement; the impact of superimposed policies and futures fell, users waited and saw a strong trend, and port coal prices were adjusted back. However, the author believes that the market in the middle and last ten days of April is not pessimistic. Under the background of economic recovery, the overall electricity demand remains strong, and some power plants store coal on the low side, and there is still a willingness to replenish the storage. At the same time, from the hydrological situation, this spring, hydropower generation is not optimistic, thermal power generation pressure is greater.

First, with the frequent occurrence of recent accidents and the intensification of safety and environmental protection inspections in major domestic producing areas, Shanxi and Shaanxi do not have much room to increase production in the short term; while Inner Mongolia has the potential to increase production, under the control of coal control tickets, the supply will still be tight in some periods of time. Second, the price of coal in the port falls, the shippers hang upside down, the enthusiasm of shipping weakens, and the spot stock of the port decreases; once the demand resumes and the number of ships arriving at the port increases, it will reappear the phenomenon that the supply of high-quality coal falls short of demand, driving up the price of coal. Third, the overseas supply of imported coal has been blocked and there has been no significant improvement; the addition of Ramadan in Indonesia has had an impact on production and shipping, with year-on-year or even negative month-on-month growth in imports. Fourth, in April, the Daqin line was overhauled and reduced part of the coastal supply. During the overhaul period of the Daqin line, if the demand for coal is poor and the shipping is low, then the overhaul will have little impact on the market and will not lead to a rise in coal prices; but if the demand picks up, the impact will increase after the maintenance begins. During this maintenance period, although the units in some power plants are overhauled, the load of the units in operation is not low, and there is still a demand for replenishment in the lower reaches.

Although there has been a temporary slowdown in the growth of downstream demand since last week, there has been a reduction in the number of coal ships arriving at the port, and users have purchased coal at a low price in the market. However, before the arrival of summer, there is still a concentrated demand for replenishment in power plants. Since yesterday, there has been an increase in the number of coal-pulling vehicles in northern Shanxi, marking a recovery in demand for coal. Superimposed Qinhuangdao Port inventory remains low, high-quality coal is still scarce, port coal prices are strongly supported; it is expected that this weekend, coal prices will stop falling and stabilize, coal prices in the producing area are expected to take the lead to stop falling and rebound.