Industry point of view | analysts debate whether automakers can withstand the high rhodium price?

On March 12, the benchmark price of rhodium remained high, down about 15% from its record high a week ago, but still reaching $25000 an ounce. The unique metal used in car catalysts has sparked a heated debate among analysts: how much longer can carmakers tolerate such a high price? Automakers may choose an alternative, in particular by increasing the load of platinum and / or palladium to replace part of the rhodium.

The range of rhodium prices for Platts New York traders fell to $22000 to $29000 an ounce from $26850 to $29200 the previous week, according to estimates on March 11. Rohit Savant, head of precious metals research at CPM Group, said automakers can afford high rhodium prices in the short term. But if prices continue to rise, automakers may cut back on consumption, that is, by reducing the unit content of rhodium gold.

Saving refers to reducing the amount of materials used for a certain purpose through technological improvement. In the case of automotive catalysts, it refers to the use of platinum group metals (rhodium, platinum or palladium) with lower loading in a single catalyst to achieve an approximate effect.

Savant added that automakers may also use selective reduction catalysts, "which have been commercialized and are used in many large vehicles."

"although this catalyst is expensive and troublesome to install, due to the high price of rhodium, it will be possible for automakers to use the catalyst in more cars," he said. "

Different emissions

Savant noted that platinum and palladium could not replace rhodium for automotive catalysts because the emissions from the treatment of the first two platinum group metals were different from those of rhodium.

"only rhodium can reduce nitrogen oxide emissions, and nitrogen oxide emissions are the focus of the new emission standards," he said. "

Similarly, Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia, Stone X Group, also said: "in principle, platinum and palladium cannot replace rhodium because the conversion of nitrogen oxides to nitrogen is a reduction process, while platinum and palladium are basically used as oxidation catalysts in the reprocessing system. But I heard that [South African platinum group metal producer] Sibanye proposed that it would be okay to use palladium instead of rhodium. "

Henrik Marx, head of global trading for Heraeus Precious Metals, one of the world's largest platinum group refiners, said the R & D department of automotive catalyst manufacturers had been debating the topic of replacing rhodium gold for decades.

"this replacement of metal may have been fully demonstrated." "but personally, I don't think such a replacement can be done easily, not to mention that it has to be verified by the automaker," Marx said. "

Trevor Raymond, research director of the World Platinum Investment Association, said that automotive catalysts need to be customized according to automotive engines. Recent replacement

As to whether automakers have recently replaced platinum, palladium or rhodium, Raymond said automakers did not disclose the amount of platinum group metals they use on specific models. Catalyst manufacturers such as Zhuang Xin Wanfeng, BASF and Umico, although they know the amount of these metals in cars like the back of their hand, are bound by confidentiality agreements and are tight-lipped in this regard. No one can know. " Raymond said. "but we can find clues in the results announced by Sibanye-Stillwater. They believe that the replacement dose of platinum will increase by 1.5 million ounces per year by 2025. In addition to getting such a substantial figure, there are many rumors that indicate that this trend is developing rapidly. Now some confidential information has flowed out. " In March 2020, BASF, a chemical manufacturer, partnered with South African platinum group metal producers Sibanye-Stillwater and Impala Platinum to launch a new trimetal catalyst that can replace part of palladium with platinum in light gasoline vehicles while meeting emission standards.