Today's focus

[SMM analysis: a detailed account of the accumulation and discount of Guangdong copper after the National Day over the years] We expect that the high level of post-holiday inventory this year will appear at the end of October and the beginning of November, when the rising price is expected to have an obvious inflection point. However, it will be the delivery day soon after the holiday, and it is not expected that there will be a big discount, as the holder will deliver a large number of positions (at present, the total warehouse receipt is 33700 tons, the remaining warehouse capacity is 56300 tons, with sufficient warehouse capacity). However, it is expected that Shengshui will go down again after delivery. "check for details.

[SMM analysis: domestic copper consumption weakens, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.29% month-on-month in August 2020. China imported a total of 470100 tons of refined copper (refined copper cathodes with unwrought copper content > 99.9935% and other unwrought refined copper cathodes) in August 2020, a decrease of 15.29% month-on-month, an increase of 62.83% over the same period last year. China imported a total of 2.952 million tons from January to August, a cumulative increase of 37.66% over the same period last year. After entering the third quarter, domestic copper consumption weakened, while domestic refinery supply increased month-on-month, and copper supply was no longer tight in the second quarter. During the same period, overseas demand recovers, overseas explicit inventory drops significantly and the proportion of written-off warehouse receipts remains high., LME back structure strengthens. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: the EU is once again facing challenges in levying temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum profiles] under the influence of the epidemic this year, aluminum profile exports from January to July were 469800 tons, down 22.84 percent from the same period last year, of which 66700 tons were exported to 27 countries of the European Union. With the implementation of the EU's temporary anti-dumping duties, the export situation of Chinese aluminum profiles with a slight recovery is once again facing challenges. On the whole, the EU temporary anti-dumping duties will have a greater impact on the enterprises themselves, but have a limited impact on the entire domestic aluminum supply. "check the details.

[SMM survey: the holiday for lead-acid battery enterprises in the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is similar to that in previous years] according to SMM research, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the five provinces of SMM last week (September 21-September 25) was 72.72%, up only 0.21% from last Friday. It is understood that the terminal consumption of the lead-acid battery market is stable. In order to promote the pre-holiday stock of dealers, electric bicycles and automobile battery enterprises have implemented price reduction and promotion of batteries one after another, and dealers replenish the storage on demand. Battery enterprises also maintain the state of sales and fixed production. "check the details.

[SMM research: refinery technical transformation recycled lead operating rate increased to 55.8%] according to SMM research, last week (September 21-September 25) SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in the four provinces had a weekly operating rate of 55.8%, up 0.3% from last week. Among them, the operating rates of licensed smelting enterprises of recycled lead in Anhui and Jiangsu are 44.1% and 66.7% respectively, which are the same as last week, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the tightening of raw materials makes it difficult to increase the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises. "check the details.

SMM analysis: the fundamentals of Shanghai lead suddenly plummeted and became cloudy? From the perspective of lead fundamentals, the supporting force. On the supply side, in terms of primary lead, the production of domestic smelters is stable, the maintenance of smelters has been completed one after another, and production has resumed. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the price remains high, and the cost support of recycled lead is the main factor supporting the price of lead. On the consumer side, large lead-acid battery enterprises still maintain the rigid demand in the peak season, mainly for long order purchase, the transaction of bulk order is limited, and the downstream pre-festival reserve database has been basically completed. At present, there is no bright spot in the macro sentiment overlay fundamentals, and the short-term lead price volatility is expected to weaken. "check the details.

[SMM data: the social inventory of lead ingots in the downstream pre-holiday warehouse expanded] as of Friday, the total inventory of lead ingots in the five places of SMM reached 23200 tons, down 12200 tons from the previous week. Lead prices shot up and fell back last week, lead prices rose strongly at the beginning of the week, and shippers' sentiment was high. In addition to the expansion of the discount for refinery supply, the domestic lead in the trade market dropped from 30-50 yuan / ton to 50-100 yuan / ton. Downstream replenishment on demand, and the National Day holiday is approaching, downstream pick up goods, social inventory expansion "to view the details."

[SMM analysis: imports of zinc ore concentrated into Hong Kong increased month-on-month in August] according to the latest customs data, imports of zinc concentrate totaled 410700 tons (physical tons) in August 2020, an increase of 142400 tons (physical tons) over July, and an increase of 161000 tons (physical tons) over 2019. SMM believes that it is mainly due to the resumption of post-natal shipment of zinc mines in Peru, concentrated delivery from the end of July to August, and a large increase in domestic smelter output from August to September, and the obvious increase in demand for zinc mines. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: refined zinc imports rose 5.89% month-on-month in August. Imports of major trading partners are still dominant.] according to customs breakdown data, the top 5 countries of refined zinc imports in August 2020 are Kazakhstan (45.7%), South Korea (23.5%), Australia (14.8%), Iran (4.3%) and Peru (3.2%). Of these, 73.1% of Kazakhstan is zinc, while Iranian zinc is all zinc. In terms of import structure, the main trading partners account for 85.9% of imports, mainly because the brief opening of the import window is not obvious to import drainage, non-profit long single customs declaration is still the mainstream. SMM expects imports to be about 45-50, 000 tons in September, and imports are expected to increase slightly to around 5-55000 tons in October. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Shanghai Nickel has turned red! Nickel mine price is still strong nickel pig iron price willingness is not strong] SMM believes that due to the earlier weak performance of the US dollar and the willingness of the market to adjust, traders are emotionally short of commodities, and the current bullish force is relatively lacking. The sharp fall at the beginning of this week has also laid the tone of weak operation, and the recent low shock is mainly "check the details."

[SMM data: China's imports of nickel mines decreased by 23.6% month-on-month in August. Philippine shipments decreased significantly due to the weather.] according to customs data, in August 2020, China's total imports of nickel mines were 3.7458 million tons (a mixture of dry and wet customs data), a month-on-month decrease of 23.6%; a year-on-year drop of 37.5%. Of this total, 3.3841 million tons of nickel ore was imported into the Philippines (mixed with dry and wet customs data), down 23% from the previous month and 17.22% from the same period last year. Indonesia still has 80900 tons (wet and dry customs data) of nickel mines declared. Customs data the larger drop in nickel ore imports in August is mainly due to the weather impact of the Philippines and the pressure of domestic ports.

SMM Iron and Steel Research: how is the production of the iron and steel industry chain coming to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival? As the National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival are approaching, how will the holiday production of enterprises in the iron and steel industry chain be arranged? To this end, the SMM Iron and Steel team specially investigated more than 40 steel mills, traders and downstream enterprises. This survey found that most of the steel mills are in normal production, so the output remains stable; downstream enterprises adopt a shift system, and the holiday time is mostly concentrated in 0-4 days; trading enterprises have the longest holiday time, most of them are on holiday in accordance with legal holidays, and a few enterprises have a holiday time of less than 4 days. "check the details.

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (25th)] as of September 25, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 109.95 million tons, up 1.78 million tons from last week and down 750000 tons from the same period last year. Port inventories have increased for the fifth consecutive week. The average daily dredging volume of the port decreased by 34000 tons to 2.844 million tons compared with the previous period. "check the details."

[SMM investigation: double holiday production arrangement of electrolytic manganese industry] according to SMM, the overall operating rate of electrolytic manganese plants in the southern mainstream areas of China increased steadily to 56.3% in the third quarter, mainly due to the fact that strict control of the domestic epidemic situation has been effective since mid-late August to facilitate the resumption of work in various industries, and overseas steel mills have gradually ended their summer break to slightly restore the demand for electrolytic manganese as raw materials. Approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, SMM learned about the start-up plans of manganese factories in the Manganese Triangle, Guangxi and other domestic regions through research. By the end of September, there were 35-37 electrolytic manganese factories in the country. Most of the manufacturers showed that the production area basically maintained normal production during the National Day period, and most of them produced and delivered October futures. "check the details.

Due to the huge pressure on steel stocks and the decline in prices and profits in September, the operating rate of steel mills across the country has been in a state of decline in September. At the same time, the problem of environmental protection has always restricted the production of steel mills. All the assets of Tangshan Branch of Heshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. related to the relocation of the city have been closed, the blast furnace production capacity of Tianjin Tianfeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has been shut down on September 14, and all blast furnaces of Tianjin Sansan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. were officially withdrawn on September 17 and Laigang planned to overhaul the 501t electric furnace for 20 days on September 23. This week, according to a survey by the SMM ferrochrome department, the operating rate of the blast furnace in the fourth week of September was 88.5%, up 0.2% from the previous week, the first rise after four consecutive weeks of decline. The main reason is that some steel mills have finished overhauling and resuming production one after another this week. "check the details."

[SMM silicon inventory: increase in pre-festival port transaction volume Kunming centralized arrival silicon inventory] SMM statistics the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places totaled 72000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons over last week. Out of concern about the traffic restrictions caused by the epidemic, Yunnan silicon plants began to concentrate shipments to Kunming last week and concentrated delivery this week, coupled with an increase in pledged goods, and other reasons such as a significant increase in inventory in Kunming. The arrival and shipment of the two major ports of Huangpu and Tianjin have increased before the National Day, and the stock has not changed much. It is expected that the stock of metal silicon society will continue the trend of accumulation after the festival. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: pre-festival rare earth market prices are still weak] Last week, the domestic rare earth market continued to be in the doldrums, light rare earths and medium and heavy rare earths are all under pressure, prices are down, and trading has not improved. Light rare earths, this week praseodymium neodymium oxide demand and transactions are not prosperous, prices still showed a slight decline. Although the quotation of the separation plant is relatively strong, only a small reduction in the quotation to meet the purchase of the actual order, but the willingness of the market circulation is not strong, with the market, the price is on the low side. At present, metal factories are purchasing according to the single rigid demand, and even under the wait-and-see mood, there will be delayed purchasing behavior, and the price is under serious pressure. "check the details."

Important news of metals and industry

[copper weekly survey feedback: how to arrange the holiday production of copper processing enterprises in Shuangjie? According to the feedback of the survey sample, among the 32 survey samples, 13 enterprises will go to work normally, and another 19 enterprises will arrange holidays, that is, nearly 60% of the factories have holiday arrangements. And the average number of holiday days in 19 enterprises is 6 days. According to the stock feedback, due to the concentration of the holiday, 12 enterprises said that they would not do the stock preparation operation during the holiday, and the rest of the stock preparation period was concentrated in about 4 days. The overall stock preparation enthusiasm is not high, which is mainly subject to the pressure of orders and finished product inventory. Consistent with the spot market feedback "check details."

[SMM analysis: crude copper continued to concentrate in Hong Kong in August. Imports of copper concentrate and its ores (hereinafter referred to as copper concentrate) in August 2020 totaled 1.587 million tons (physical tons), a decrease of 11.6% from the previous month and 12.3% from the same period last year. A total of 142.437 million tons of copper concentrate were imported from January to August 2020, down 1.38% from the same period last year. Although the production and shipment of copper mines in Peru returned to normal in June, and the shipment to China was also reflected in the import of copper concentrate in August, among the other import source countries, due to the previous deployment of more shipments, the domestic supply of goods decreased after June. As a result, China's copper concentrate imports decreased in August compared with the previous month. "check the details.

SMM analysis: scrap copper goods, ticket shortage! Imports of copper ingots have attracted much attention] according to the latest customs data, copper scrap imports in August were 81027 tons, an increase of 7.87 percent over the previous month, and imports rebounded in the second month, in line with previous expectations. The cumulative import of copper scrap from January to August was 586758 tons, still a sharp decrease of 46.21% compared with the same period last year. With regard to the expected amount of copper scrap imported in September, according to SMM, the joint and several liability of the new solid waste law just implemented this month has led shipping companies to carry solid waste cautiously, and there are no small difficulties in transporting waste copper from Europe, the United States and other regions to China, which has restrained the scrap copper market and directly led to the extension of customs inspection time for imported waste. However, the transportation problem is mainly solved by suppliers, while domestic enterprises only need to have approval documents. In September, the 12th batch of approval documents issued more than 130,000 tons, alleviating the shortage of market approval documents in a short time. Taken together, scrap copper imports may continue to pick up in September, but the quantity should not be very optimistic. "check the details."

[SMM aluminum downstream weekly survey: aluminum downstream processing enterprises slightly increased during the National Day holiday, consumption growth is slow] this week, aluminum downstream leading enterprises started a slight decline, mainly from cable companies with poor orders. On the whole, the start-up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is similar to that expected, and the overall demand keeps growing slightly. Still to profile, cable enterprises as a drag, the only difference is that profile enterprises accumulate more orders, start decline time will be delayed. Orders for sheet, strip, foil and alloy ingots still increased slightly in the peak season as expected, mainly from automotive, architectural decoration, consumer electronics and other areas. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: base price plummets aluminum bar processing fees rebound follow-up rising space is limited] due to the Mid-Autumn Festival superimposed National Day holiday, coupled with new orders in September than expected, downstream profile enterprises stop work holiday time increased than in previous years, normal 1-3 days, slightly longer 4-5 days. In addition, the quantity and enthusiasm of pre-holiday stock are weak, increasing stock volume only after the base price fell sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, and purchasing on demand most of the rest of the time. It is unlikely that the consumer side will improve significantly in the short term. In the short term, the processing fee for aluminum bars will fluctuate in the opposite direction with the base price, and the willingness of the cardholders to ship at a positive price will affect the adjustment of the price, and the high point of processing fees in the fourth quarter is usually lower than that in the second quarter. At present, it is very difficult for Guangdong aluminum rod processing fee to exceed 600 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: imports of unwrought aluminum alloy still exceed 100000 tons in August will become the norm in nearly two years] according to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy in August 2020 were 145600 tons, an increase of 809.7 percent over the same period last year, and a decrease of 14.8 percent from the previous month. Imports totaled 783100 tons from January to August, an increase of 806.3 percent over the same period last year. The year-on-year increase in the number of imported aluminum alloy ingots in 2020 is due to China's restrictions on the import of waste aluminum. Aluminum alloy ingots have become disguised imports of waste aluminum to supplement China, while the outbreak of the epidemic has led to poor overseas demand. The oversupply of aluminum alloy ingots has intensified the import impact of aluminum alloy ingots The arrival of imported aluminum alloy ingots in August is mainly for June-July orders. after overseas demand has recovered to a certain extent in August, new import orders will be reduced, and the reduction will be fed back to the import data from September to November. "check details."

[SMM analysis: overseas demand for silicon metal slowly rebounded and exports increased 3 per cent in August compared with the previous month] Customs data show that exports of silicon metal in August 2020 were 46000 tons, up 3 per cent from the previous month and down 22.9 per cent from the same period last year. Exports totaled 377000 tons from January to August, down 20.3% from the same period last year. Compared with August, port warehouse shipments increased slightly in September, mainly in the southern port. Tianjin Port has poor warehouse turnover due to the reduction of production by large factories in the north and the epidemic in Xinjiang, and the export increase in September is expected to be mainly in the southern port. With the gradual recovery of overseas demand and the arrival of seasonal stock, exports are expected to reach 55-60,000 tons in September. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: the export of prebaked anodes reached 1.071 million tons from January to August and is expected to exceed 1.45 million tons in the whole year.] according to customs statistics, the total export volume of domestic prebaked anodes in August 2020 was 153200 tons, an increase of 21.78 percent over the previous month, and an increase of 131.7 percent over the same period last year. From January to August 2020, the total export volume of domestic prebaked anodes reached 1.0721 million tons, an increase of 40.14% over the same period last year. (based on the eight-digit customs code: 84541900 SMM excludes non-prebaked anode products.) the demand for overseas anodes is not decreasing, showing a trend of increasing year by year. SMM predicts that the national export of prebaked anodes will exceed 1.45 million tons in 2020. "check details.

[metal silicon rising trend flattening downstream on-demand procurement] Last week, the price of some brands of silicon increased slightly, and the price difference between various specifications for oxygen ventilation narrowed. The transaction price of oxygen 55 silicon in East China was around 11500 yuan / ton, and 44 yuan was around 11700 yuan / ton. The price of oxygen-free silicon is stable, and the price difference between oxygen-free silicon and oxygen-free silicon is 900 yuan / ton. At present, the focus of the market is on the trend of silicon price after the end of the long holiday. In October, the southwest production area still started smoothly during the flood season, and the overall operating rate in Xinjiang was higher than that in September due to the month-on-month increase in the resumption of production capacity of large factories. The start of construction in the lower reaches has not changed much, but due to the cautious attitude of some downstream stocks in the early stage, the procurement in October will be based on rigid demand. "check the details."

[SMM market analysis: high battery-grade nickel sulfate price temporarily stabilizes nickel bean autolysis economy] recently, although the fundamental situation is good for nickel price, the macro factors such as repeated epidemic situation abroad and the rise of US dollar index have great influence on nickel price, and nickel in the future continues to fall. Since September, the spot supply of battery-grade nickel sulfate has been in short supply, and the price has risen to the highest level since this year. Different from previous periods, the high price of battery-grade nickel sulfate is temporarily stable, which is less affected by the drop in nickel price. The market price is still maintained at 2.75-28000 yuan / ton, and the possible transaction price is 2.7-27800 yuan / ton (crystal; Accept price with account period), only a high price range. Before the fall of nickel, the price will be reduced by 200 yuan / ton. "check the details."

Macro focus

[ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner] Assistant Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang said at a press conference held by the State Information Office on the 27th that from January to August this year, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN reached 416.55 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.8 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 14.6 percent of China's total foreign trade. ASEAN has historically become China's largest trading partner, forming a good pattern in which China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partner.

Terminal information

[the "delivery license" for newly built commercial housing in Changsha will be fully implemented next year, and 4883 households have been realized.] according to the Changsha Housing and Construction Bureau, the "delivery license implementation Plan for newly built Commercial Housing in Changsha" was officially issued a few days ago. According to the Plan, starting from January 1, 2021, newly built commercial housing projects that have not yet applied for pre-sale permits in Furong District, Tianxin District, Yuelu District, Kaifu District and Yuhua District of Changsha City must be handed in and handed over licenses, which means that the policy will be fully promoted and implemented in the five districts.

[development and Reform Commission: to explore an infrastructure REITs road suitable for China's national conditions] at the annual meeting of the China REITs Forum held on September 27th, Han Zhifeng, deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that infrastructure REITs is a new creature, and the pilot project involves many subjects and requires the cooperation of all parties to clarify relevant laws and regulations, operation and management mechanisms and many other issues to ensure the smooth implementation of the pilot project. It is necessary to explore an infrastructure REITs road suitable for China's national conditions.