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Dialogue thread | take advantage of the potential to pursue
Sep 27,2020 08:07CST
translation
Source:Yide futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: in the face of this week's market, the heart is as calm as a lake, because almost everything has been expected in the past. Taking advantage of the opportunity to chase should be the best interpretation of this week, and so far is a precise positioning of this week's lows that I can think of. Is each trader satisfied with his or her answer paper? The main air force has performed like a fish in water this week, advancing and retreating freely.

Thread main 2101 contract this week deduced a shadow 8: 00, shadow 23:00, entity 74 points Zhouyin line, closed at 3522 points, down 81 points from the previous week, a weekly decline of 2.25%. The air force took advantage of the victory in pursuit worthy of the name. The overall trading volume has decreased relatively, and the position has only increased by 600 hands. It fulfilled last week's forecast of a five-wave decline in the daily line, and the low of 3500 also fulfilled our consistent understanding of the integer level. How will it be interpreted in the future?

The change of long and short positions this week seems to give us some inspiration: the top three main forces of the bears were all cashing in a small amount of profits; although the first main position of the bulls was "deployed" this week, but according to the market, although it has increased and reduced its positions during the long period, it is still at a loss, but it finally maintained last week's long position. Through such changes, it shows that the Yongan seat is expected to rebound.

Position changes so that the market has the expectation of a rebound, the market trend indicates what kind of situation? First of all, I will sort it out from the time-sharing chart. This is this week's panoramic 15-minute trend chart, the first bid K kill actually had a clue in the previous midnight, the volume can be extremely shrinking, the EMA has completely intertwined signs, prices are relatively stagnant, all give a perfect explanation. In particular, the opening of the direct jump low, it gives sharp traders a direct opportunity to enter the market; it also gives slightly dull traders a chance to bounce back again. With subsequent highs of 3567 and 3560, the latter just hit the time-sharing position of MA60, and traders who learn to wait should have no problem.

As for the time-sharing lows of 3503, 3500 and 3505, do they have any signs of stopping the decline? from our expectations and the current structure of the market, we can try to intervene. 3511 points after the relative volume to hit a new low, the recovery probe Yang Xing, and there is a relative quantity can be magnified, combined with our once integer level of testability, but also an obvious daily line five waves kill structure, these are worth trying to rebound in the decline. Especially on Friday night, when you increase your position and try 3500 points again, there is an obvious characteristic of shrinking, and your stop loss is at a new low when it breaks 3500 points. Such an obvious time-sharing triple bottom, combined with the deviation of the indicators below, tentatively intervening in protective short orders, or reducing some high short orders are the relatively correct answers to the trade. When it forms a positive K, you will find that the position of the downward increase has been reduced by almost 2/3. The main force has almost swept away the low-level empty list that has been improved.

Back to the daily line structure, it piled up five daily K lines this week, little by little towards MA120, and also approaching the 3400 points on the upper edge of the first dimension of the contract. We don't have to guess whether it will eventually reach 3400 o'clock.

This week's close did not stand firm at 5 antennas a day, which is one of the criteria for bulls not entering the market. But when we challenged 3500 points on the daily line for the third time on Friday night, we chose protective multiple entry and partial empty orders, just as we placed empty orders near 3800. The market is coming out little by little, and we have been trying to make a planned deal in advance. Such a relatively low order, our stop loss must be set at 3498 points with a volume break, and we can boldly try to continue to increase the short order, perhaps another low 3400 point may be realized. Because the market is round, just like the points we are experiencing now are the positions we have walked upward. But how long the current rebound can last needs to be closely watched next Monday.

When the market is as promised, the cognition I can give is: treat it according to the rebound. The forward resistance of 3560 points can only be overlooked by breaking through the volume. It takes advantage of the potential to pursue the target or not, we do not need to jump to conclusions, only follow the market is the last word.

As far as the current spot background is concerned, rebar shows a situation of double increase in supply and demand, and weekly output continues to pick up, increasing by 38300 tons month-on-month, but the output is mainly running smoothly under low profits, and the recent news of production restrictions has been spread frequently, and the supply pressure has improved. At the same time, the marginal demand for rebar has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 77500 tons month-on-month, setting a new stage high; the terminal procurement volume has also increased, and the demand for construction steel due to tight funds is expected to be released after the National Day, and the follow-up demand is still increasing. Thanks to the marginal improvement of fundamentals, the inventory reduction has expanded, with a month-on-month drop of 192900 tons, but it is still on the high side compared with the same period last year, and the pressure of inventory elimination still exists. The sharp decline in steel prices in the "Golden Nine" has better released the risk, while production restrictions in steel mills are conducive to alleviating supply pressure, coupled with the increment of terminal demand, rebar fundamentals will be marginal better, pre-festival prudent operation will be the main, focusing on tracking the implementation of production restrictions.

Futures interact and influence each other, but as traders, we must take the market as the benchmark, only a thorough understanding of the pulse of the market, we can gain anything. Finally, I wish every trader friend a happy Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day.

Rebar
steel
construction

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