[SMM analysis] the aluminum price may be repeated after the negative release.

SMM9 March 24 News: the trend of Lun Aluminum fell yesterday, the lower low hit 1751.5 US dollars / ton, mainly to short positions, technical breakers fell. Overnight, Synchronize, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum 2010, fell, with the futures price as low as 13760. Although shanghai aluminum fell 4% in early morning trading compared with the 4% decline in night trading, it is now fluctuating in a low range.

Macro news, Federal Reserve Powell continues to express cautious optimism about the economy, and believes that economic activity and the job market are steadily recovering. Expectations of US economic easing were dashed, with the dollar index climbing to a nearly two-month high and non-ferrous metals falling under pressure. On the other hand, in a speech to Parliament, British Prime Minister Johnson announced stricter restrictions on the recent deterioration of the novel coronavirus epidemic, which could last for six months. Panic is also bad for aluminum prices.

From a fundamental point of view, the supply side, according to SMM research data, with the gradual recovery of new and resumption production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, there is pressure on the supply side in the fourth quarter, and aluminum supply is short-term in the long term. Downstream consumer side, according to SMM research in September aluminum strip, aluminum foil mild to improve, aluminum profiles as a whole than the same, but the building profile warmer than originally expected, alloy plate steadily improved, aluminum cable consumption flat. However, now Badi aluminum ingots total 740000 tons, inventory has always been relatively low.

On the whole, apart from the macro epidemic in Europe, the sharp rebound in the dollar index to suppress aluminum prices, and the delay in fundamental consumption, new capacity has been identified as negative factors, there are no other major negative factors for the time being. After the release of sentiment, aluminum prices are not expected to fall smoothly under the current current structure and inventory conditions, and there are still repeated possibilities in the future. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of capital flow and the impact of macro news on the market.