SMM News: Tesla Battery Day was finally held in the limelight, although Musk announced a series of new technologies, but in view of the previous market expectations are too high, Tesla shares fell sharply after trading on Tuesday.
Musk has long been campaigning for Battery Day, which he said in April was "one of the most exciting days in Tesla's history" and is expected to be put into production in 2020. The battery can drive Tesla's car for millions of miles, two to three times the life of an ordinary battery pack.
Because of the high expectations of the market for the event, especially the millions of miles of batteries that have been the focus of analysts for months, people have almost ignored that September 22nd is also the day for Tesla's shareholders' meeting.
On the same day, Tesla first held a shareholders' meeting. because of the impact of the epidemic, Tesla's shareholders' meeting was like an open-air movie scene, with all participants sitting in the car.
I immediately introduced the performance of the current model market, saying that Tesla's car shipments increased by 50% in 2019, and despite the very difficult environment, it is still likely to grow by 30% to 40% in 2020.
Tesla shipped 367500 vehicles last year, and according to Musk's above forecast, 477500 to 514500 vehicles will be shipped this year, roughly in line with Tesla's previously announced annual shipping forecast of 500000 vehicles.
After the shareholders' meeting, Tesla Battery Day is held. Tesla released a brand new "4680" battery, with a 16% increase in mileage, a five-fold increase in energy density and a six-fold increase in power output. Musk said the new battery is already being produced in a factory and will take a year to reach 10 gigawatt-hour capacity.
If all the innovations in production and chemical industry are realized, the battery life capacity will be increased by 54%, the cost will be reduced by 56%, and the investment in super factories will be reduced by 69%. About three years later, Tesla is confident of building a fully self-driving car that costs $25000, Musk said.
Tesla shares closed down more than 5 per cent on Tuesday and rose more than 5 per cent in after-hours trading as Mr Musk's speech continued.
But Mr Musk then said that some of the technology shown at the event was only "close to available" (close to working), until the end of Battery Day, where investors' highly anticipated million-mile batteries disappeared and Tesla's share price fell nearly 7 per cent.
Musk said that these technologies can indeed be used, but it is still not possible to produce on a large scale. Tesla has set up a pilot plant in California to solve the problems he still faces. "there is a clear road to success ahead, but there is still a lot of work to do to get there."
The following is how China Merchants Securities combs the daily key contents of Tesla's battery:
[overall situation of Tesla]
1. Sales guidelines for this year. Sales grew by 50% in 2019 and are expected to grow by 30-40% this year.
2. Future battery demand. 10TWh (10000GWh) battery production, including battery requirements for 3500GWh compact and medium-sized cars; 900GWh luxury cars and SUV;1100GWh pickups; 3000GWh semi;1500GWh compact cars and Robotaxi.
3. The changes brought about by the daily innovation of batteries. Battery day includes five parts, battery design, battery factory, cathode materials, negative materials, vehicle battery integration. If all five parts of the innovation can be realized, the battery life capacity will be increased by 54%, the cost will be reduced by 56%, and the investment in superfactories will be reduced by 69%. It will take 12-18 months to achieve some of the goals and about 3 years to fully achieve them.
4. Launch new models. About three years later, we are confident that we will be able to build a $25000 model with a battery life > 520km, and use these new technologies.
5. Cybertruck has received more than 600000 orders and is expected to sell 250000 to 300000 vehicles a year.
1. [battery Design]-electrodeless ear battery, 46800 battery, cost reduced by 14%
A) in the past, the company has completed an innovation with partners, upgrading from 18650 in 2008 to 21700 in 2017, with a 50% increase in energy density.
B) Electrodeless ear batteries will be used in the future. In the original battery structure, the current had to flow through the pole ear to reach the connector outside the battery unit. However, when the current must flow all the way along the cathode or anode to the ear and out of the battery unit, the resistance increases with the increase of the distance. In addition, since the polar ear is an additional part, the cost is increased. The use of electrodeless ear batteries will simplify the manufacturing process and reduce resistance.
C) use 46800 battery. Larger cylindrical batteries can reduce costs, and the biggest challenge is fast charging. The new battery has a length of 80mm and a diameter of 46mm, with a five-fold increase in energy and a 16% increase in battery life. The mass production site is in Fremont, California.
D) with the new battery, the cost can be reduced by 14%.
2. [battery factory]-dry electrode, production process optimization, production capacity target, cost reduction by 18%
A) the dry electrode process is adopted. There is already a wet electrode process, and the solvent can be recycled. The company will also use dry electrode technology, the company carries out a large number of experiments, and finally can achieve practical application. But it is not mature enough to expand production capacity crazily. The advantage is to simplify the process.
B) reduce investment in capacity. Can simplify the process as much as possible. The goal is to be able to accommodate 1TWh capacity in the current 150GWh factory space in the future, with a 75 per cent reduction in investment per GWh capacity.
C) production process optimization. Continuous processing output is the goal of the company's battery plant to maximize efficiency and output. One assembly line achieves 20GWH, and the single-line output increases seven times.
D) capacity targets. 2022 100GWh capacity, 2030 3TWh capacity. Among them, 100GWh in 2022 is completely self-produced capacity in addition to working with suppliers.
E) at this stage, the cost can be reduced by 18%.
3. [negative electrode material]-silicon negative electrode, the cost is reduced by 5%.
A) Silicon is very important because the earth is rich in resources and has better energy storage performance. People are reluctant to use silicon because its expansion reacts with the diaphragm to form a gel.
B) the company uses new materials to restrain silicon expansion, and uses film-coated materials to coat silicon first. after raw material treatment, the mileage can be increased by 20%.
C) the cost of silicon material in the company is very low, which can reach US $1.20 / KWh.
D) at this stage, the cost can be reduced by 5%.
4. [cathode material]-Cobalt-free, cost reduced by 12%
A) the positive electrode will eliminate the use of cobalt and rely on nickel Divided into three steps,
The first step is to use iron in the cathode material, which has a good cycle life and can be used in some passenger cars, including a new car, which is cost-effective.
The second part is nickel-manganese materials, such as 2pare 3ni and 1pg 3mn, which are used in major passenger cars and energy storage.
The third step to the absolute sense of high nickel, applied to pickups and trucks.
B) cathode material factories will be established in the United States, which can reduce transportation costs by 80%.
C) layout upstream resources and battery recycling to reduce costs.
D) at this stage, the cost can be reduced by 12%.
5. [battery integration]-cost reduction by 7%
Promote the design of the integrated structure of automobile body in the future. At the same time, the structure of pack needs to be optimized. In the design of the new battery pack, it is bonded in a better way to make the structure more compact. A better combination of the battery and the car body can reduce weight by 10% and may lead to a 14% increase in battery life. This link can reduce the cost by 7%.