SMM Network News: iron ore imports rebounded, the port accumulation, but also faced with high valuation repair, short-term empty.
In the case of a good recovery of shipments in Brazil, iron ore stocks are expected to accumulate to 123 million tons by the end of the year, with an accumulation of about 8 million tons. Port high-quality Australian powder inventory gradually increased, the current high-quality Australian powder inventory has increased to the same period last year level, the impact of substitution began to gradually appear, high-quality Australian powder prices have greater pressure. Port pressure and sea drift inventory is still high, has not begun to significantly alleviate, hidden inventory may begin to gradually manifest in the follow-up.
Last week, total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 2.592 million tons month-on-month, and foreign mine shipments are expected to pick up. The increment in the first half of the year mainly comes from Australia, showing a pattern of more Australia than Brazil; in the second half of the year, the increment mainly comes from Vale, and there is no increment in Australia as a whole, or the opposite pattern is shown in the first half of the year. Australian shipments are stable in early September. Since the beginning of July, Australian shipments have increased by 4.11 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the year-on-year shipments are still on the high side. It is expected that the average weekly shipments in Australia will increase too significantly in the following weeks. Brazilian Vale's shipments have increased by 4 million tons since the beginning of July compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has accelerated since September. Vale's production target for the second half of the year is to increase by 17.8 million tons, so shipments need to be maintained at the current high level in order to finally achieve the target. Non-mainstream mine shipments remain at a high level, and the subsequent arrival pressure of non-mainstream mines is expected to remain on the high side.
In terms of domestic demand, the situation of high steel supply and high inventory has not changed significantly, and the demand has rebounded less than expected, which has dealt a blow to market confidence. Last week's data showed that the real estate data was lower than expected, and the speed of going to the warehouse was very general, and the expectation of "Jinjiu" almost failed. Taken together, the demand for "Jinjiu" is much lower than expected, dragging down the entire black futures market. In terms of foreign demand, pig iron production recovers slowly, especially in Europe, while pig iron production in India recovers faster. Although the epidemic is relatively serious, on the whole, foreign demand is bound to gradually recover, relieving the current pressure of non-mainstream, including high imports of Brazilian mines.
From the core point of view, steel prices depend on changes in demand, short-term mainly oscillatory callback. Iron ore pressure is the greatest, imports are picking up, ports are accumulating, and at the same time they are facing high valuation repair and short-term emptiness. Short-term, iron ore 2101 double-top structure is obvious, short-term empty, callback target 750yuan / ton.