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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the processing fee of fine scrap copper rod has been greatly reduced * most of the domestic and foreign metal markets are floating red * galvanized stable die-casting orders are steadily rising.
Sep 21,2020 07:10CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Import loss expands electrolytic copper export reappearance * alumina supply and demand gap expands in the short term may usher in a small rising dawn * the second round of central environmental protection inspectors-lead industry chain covers from Zhejiang to Hunan * fundamentals do not have significant negative zinc prices or can touch the former high zinc prices rise downstream procurement reduce galvanizing stable die casting orders steadily rise tin wide range shocks in Shanghai period under pressure within weeks Pre-festival stock is expected to rise slightly * Wanbao Minerals' Pombi project in Congo Gold produces the first batch of cathode copper * Jinchuan Group Nickel smelter top blowing furnace successful ignition oven * European Union announced the list of key mineral resources in version 2020
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[overnight market] most of the metals at home and abroad are red, the US dollar is slightly red, and the average gold price of Mei Oil has risen for the second week in a row.

"[macro outlook] focus on the nightly Chicago Fed National activity Index in August.

Today's focus

[summit special report] how do auto parts companies look at big shots against the wind on Fly under the epidemic?

[provisions on the list of unreliable entities promulgated by the Ministry of Commerce] the State establishes a list system of unreliable entities and takes corresponding measures against the following acts of foreign entities in international economy, trade and related activities: (1) endangering China's national sovereignty, security and development interests; (2) to discontinue normal transactions with Chinese enterprises, other organizations or individuals in violation of normal market trading principles, or to take discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises, other organizations or individuals, seriously harming the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, other organizations or individuals. "View details

In order to curb the frequent occurrence of illegal discharge, dumping and disposal of hazardous waste and ensure the health and safety of the people, from July to November 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Public Security and the Supreme people's Procuratorate jointly organized nationwide activities to crack down on environmental crimes of hazardous waste. In order to summarize and refine the experiences and practices that are effective and can be used for reference, deeply analyze the key points and difficulties in the process of handling environmental crimes of hazardous wastes, and give full play to the exemplary and guiding role of typical cases, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment organized and collected six typical cases of cracking down on environmental crimes committed by hazardous wastes. "View details

[SMM analysis: import loss expands the reappearance of electrolytic copper export] in contrast, the pattern of weak inside and strong outside leads to a substantial loss on imports. In the past two weeks, the loss has been basically maintained at more than 700 yuan / ton, with the maximum reaching the level of 1,000 yuan. Customs declaration import demand is very weak under the huge losses, and the inventory in the bonded area has risen to 276500 tons in seven weeks in a row. In addition, SMM has learned that some domestic smelters have turned to export profits, and most of the goods have arrived in bonded warehouses, but they have not yet found a large number of offshore cases, and it can also be observed that the quantity of domestic copper in the foreign trade market has increased recently. "View details

[SMM analysis: processing fees for fine copper rods are significantly narrowed.] although copper prices have not fallen sharply recently, the price gap between refined copper and scrap has narrowed significantly in the near future (since the end of August, the supply of scrap copper has become tight, and the price of scrap copper is strong, which is the main reason for narrowing the price gap of fine waste). Affected by this, the price difference between electrolytic copper rod and scrap copper rod has obviously narrowed. According to our statistics, the price difference between them in Guangdong has narrowed to 1050 yuan / ton, the smallest price difference since June 20. "View details

[SMM Analysis: investigation report on Electrolytic Aluminum in Yunnan Province in September] on the whole, the initial discharge speed of new production capacity in Yunnan is mostly in line with expectations, the advantage of new electrolytic aluminum in the local area is prominent, the government gives preferential policies on electricity price, and the rising speed of downstream aluminum demand in southwest China is relatively fast, and the transportation cost from Yunnan smelter to consumption place is relatively low; in addition, the integration of hydropower and aluminum will become the key development trend of the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China in the future. However, the medium-and long-term hidden worries can not be ignored, such as 1) whether the electricity load matching and electricity price in the province can be carried out according to the contract, and whether the electricity is sufficient in the dry season; 2) part of the new production capacity is located in the mountainous areas, and the problem of traffic capacity can not be ignored and needs to be solved urgently. SMM will continue to follow up. "View details

[SMM analysis: alumina supply and demand gap widening short-term may usher in a small rising dawn] this Friday, SMM alumina region weighted price of 2333 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous Friday. This week, the northern and southwestern regions have not heard of large-scale transactions, electrolytic aluminum plants are less willing to purchase, still mainly wait-and-see. Port quotations continue to be strong, trade inquiries have increased, but the size of transactions is still limited. The overall price of the market was flat last week, and there was no bright spot in the transaction. Overseas, one US dollar per ton of FOB269 shipped from Western Australia to China's main ports in October, one US dollar per ton of FOB270 from Western Australia in late October, and one CIF289.5 US dollar per ton from Western Australia to China's main ports with a freight rate of 18.50 US dollars per ton. "View details

[SMM analysis: the second round of central environmental protection inspectors-lead industry chain covers from Zhejiang to Hunan] recently, in addition to the three provinces and cities where the central inspectors are stationed this time, other provinces and cities have also begun provincial inspectors one after another. For example, the first eco-environmental protection inspection team of Hunan Province carried out eco-environmental protection inspectors in Zhuzhou City from September 15 to September 29. On September 19, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province, held a mobilization and deployment meeting to cooperate with the provincial eco-environmental protection inspectors "looking back" to make arrangements for the relevant cooperation work during the "looking back" period of provincial eco-environmental protection inspectors. Hunan and Hubei are also the main distribution provinces of primary lead, recycled lead and lead battery enterprises. "View details

[SMM analysis: fundamentals are not significantly negative zinc prices or can touch the previous high] looking at China, due to the continuous low quoted prices of imported mines, the tightening logic of mineral supply boosting the price logic, and the early release of winter storage demand is also aggravating this tense atmosphere, the pessimistic expectation of zinc supply in the fourth quarter has gradually replaced consumption as the new price anchor, and this medium-term logic has not changed. In the short term, on the one hand, the Shanghai Zinc 2010 contract far exceeds the excess position in the same period in previous years, with warehouse receipts falling to about 19000 tons as of Friday, which is too low. At the same time, the price difference between far and near Synchronize expands the risk of corroboration. At the same time, the import window has successively reached the margin of profit and loss, and imported zinc may inflow and replenish. Coupled with the fact that the violent fall in zinc prices last week has already formed a certain overdraft on consumption, the release of reserve demand before the National Day may be restricted by the fact that the price is lower than expected, that is, the high point of going to the warehouse within the month has already appeared. "View details

[SMM analysis: September peak season consumption doubt Tianjin zinc ingot spot transaction is poor] this week (9.14-18) Tianjin market spot situation: this week, Tianjin Cash Zinc mainstream ordinary brand contract for Shanghai zinc 2010 rose to around 330yuan / ton, Zijin to 2010 contract quoted water 280yuan / ton to rise water 360yuan / ton, the Tianjin stock market maintained a rise of about 80 yuan / ton compared with the Shanghai stock market. Zinc prices continued to rebound at the beginning of this week, after downstream enterprises made low-price replenishment last week, the willingness to receive goods at the beginning of the week was general, and the rising water was the same as last week; in the middle of the week, zinc prices rose sharply due to a sharp rise in rising water in the Shanghai area. some long order receiving traders bid for shipment, but the transaction at high price is poor. Near the weekend, zinc prices rose strongly, downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines, and the willingness to receive the goods was poor. They did not see the replenishment demand before the National Day, and the market lowered the price of rising water, among which the ordinary brand reported 230-260 yuan per ton in October. Zijin reported that the water rose about 280-300 yuan / ton in October. "View details

[SMM analysis: zinc 2010 contract position is still a historically high structural opportunity or there is still room] National Day is approaching, zinc 2010 contract operation has also entered the countdown, the week-long National Day holiday has shortened the contract running time, only 13 working days zinc 2010 contract will also enter the delivery process from today, due to the short operating cycle needs to focus on the position status. According to SMM statistics, there are still 74626 positions in 2010 contracts, which is a high value in the past six years, and there is a certain risk. "View details

[SMM survey: zinc prices rise downstream purchase reduction galvanized stable die-casting orders steadily rising] galvanized plate: raw material procurement slightly reduced. The overall order is flat. Inventory of finished products declined slightly. Die-casting plate: the purchase of raw materials at a low price is slightly reduced. Overall orders increased steadily this week. Maintain normal inventory of finished products. "View details

[SMM analysis: lower profits depress the production enthusiasm of galvanizing enterprises] on the spot side, hot rolls also continue the trend of accumulating stocks, ranging from 105300 tons to 2.8308 million tons in the week, indicating that consumption in the peak season in September was lower than expected under the condition of high output in steel mills. However, due to the suspension of steel rolling production in Tangshan area for 10 days on the 20th, and then the implementation of the production restriction policy, traders bid for shipments, and the spot price fell only slightly, while the price of galvanized tube products fell even more than that of the raw material end. Superimposed zinc price is still in the rising channel, the overall price trend is strong, to a certain extent, the backlog of production profits of downstream enterprises, some enterprises have been in a state of production losses, suppressing the production enthusiasm of enterprises. "View details

SMM analysis: can the high price of battery-grade nickel sulfate maintain the shortage of supply and demand in the future? SMM believes that the supply of battery-grade nickel sulfate will gradually return to a loose state in October, and the price of battery-grade nickel sulfate is already high, which is expected to fall slowly in the later period, but to a limited extent. Recently, the price of nickel is in a state of repair correction in the short term, fluctuating in the range of 11.5-118000 yuan / ton. The advantage of nickel bean autolysis compared with the purchased battery grade nickel sulfate gradually appears, and the price of battery grade nickel sulfate is checked and balanced. some precursor factories and materials factories have purchased nickel bean autolysis in the past two weeks. In addition, traders who have been hoarding goods for many months began to ship goods last week, and the transaction price is the mainstream spot trading price of bulk orders in the current market, which can alleviate the shortage of supply in the battery-grade nickel sulfate market in September. "View details

[SMM analysis: tin wide range shock stock in Shanghai is expected to rise slightly during the week.] in the medium to long term, after the US election is approaching in October, the trade contradiction between China and the United States may become more intense, which is undoubtedly a potential threat to the tin industry, which is highly dependent on exports downstream. And after October, Myanmar Rain Water is expected to gradually reduce, raw mine and transport problems will be alleviated, but the epidemic is still a destabilizing factor. There was some pressure above tin prices in October and throughout the fourth quarter. Tin prices in September still have an upward momentum in the short term, and bulls need to be cautious about their positions after mid-October. "View details

[SMM data: bidding prices of metal manganese in steel mills at home and abroad rose significantly from September to October] according to SMM, in mid-September, some steel mills at home and abroad have determined the quantity and price of metal manganese purchased in October. Since September, the spot factory price of electrolytic manganese, including tax, has been maintained around 10400-10500 yuan / ton. Although the steel factory still has a low price, in the short-term manganese factory production and delivery orders, the cost prices of raw material sulfuric acid and diselenide have increased. Support the increase in the value of electrolytic manganese, in addition, the manufacturers' price sentiment has not decreased, so the manganese price is temporarily stable in the later stage. "View details

[cobalt salt spot price review] Cobalt sulfate prices fell slightly this week (9.14-18). The purchase quantity of cobalt sulfate demand inquiry order increases, the supplier's willingness to ship is enhanced, and the low-price transaction volume is increasing. Cobalt chloride transactions this week sporadic, demand providers feedback National Day procurement is basically over, a few transaction prices or slightly lower. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM this week is 5.3-56000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 6. 4-66000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

[SMM bismuth market] the bismuth market price is still slightly higher this week, the overall market situation has not changed much compared with last week, and the supply of bismuth ingots is still tight. At present, bismuth ingot production in Hunan has been affected by environmental supervision, and it is expected that the supply of bismuth ingot manufacturers in Hunan before the end of the month may be difficult to change the current tight supply situation. By the end of this week, the mainstream price of SMM bismuth ingots was 41500-42500 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous period.

Important news of metals and industry

[Fitch raised its 2020 copper price forecast] Fitch raised its 2020 copper price forecast to $6000 / tonne from $5900 / tonne in March. Market sentiment is still expected to fluctuate as investors react to the release of the latest economic indicators, COVID-19 's news and the results of the upcoming US presidential election in November 2020. The company expects copper prices to remain high in the long run due to continued shortages in the copper market due to increased demand from the power, construction and automotive industries.

[preliminary construction of the Montana copper mine] the Ministry of Environmental quality issued a mining license for the first phase of the project last month. The permit allows Sandfire Resources America to build roads and cushions and to build small reservoirs. The company continues to apply for permits for underground tunnels to eventually mine and process copper ore.

[Wanbao Minerals produces the first cathode copper in the Pompey project in Congo gold] the Pumpi copper-cobalt mine is a partnership asset, with Wanbao holding 75 per cent, Managem Group 20 per cent and the Congolese state 5 per cent. The goal of the Pumpi copper and cobalt project is to produce 40, 000 tons of copper and 5000 tons of cobalt per year.

[copper enterprises listed] on the evening of September 15, Shanxi A-share listed company Nanfeng Chemical suddenly issued a suspension planning asset restructuring announcement, saying that the company was planning to acquire a controlling stake in Northern Copper from Zhongtiaoshan Group by issuing shares and paying cash, while at the same time buying out the company's original business and raising supporting funds, which meant that Northern Copper gave up IPO and went public with a "backdoor" listing.

Zouping new material industry accelerates its rise! Fine alumina production capacity will reach 1 million tons this year] on September 17, 2020 (the third) chemical alumina and downstream market seminar was held in Zouping. More than 300 people from all over the country, including industry experts, leaders of industry organizations, leaders of relevant industrial parks and enterprises, have gathered by the Daixi River to jointly promote the high-quality development of the fine alumina industry. In recent years, relying on the aluminum industry resources planted for many years, Zouping City has continuously deepened its cooperation with domestic and foreign strategic partners, and is committed to creating the core area of the world's high-end aluminum industry base. "View details

[group standard "process Design Standard for recycled Aluminum Plant" approved and released] recently, the "process Design Standard for recycled Aluminum Plant" (T/CNIA 0067-2020), which was jointly drafted by 12 units, including China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Color Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Hebei Lizhong Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., has been officially released and has been implemented since September 1st. "View details

[Ruiger Metal plans to build an annual production capacity of 300000 tons of recycled aluminum project in Wenxi County, Shanxi Province] it is reported that Shanghai Ruige Metal New Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Reg Metal") plans to invest in the construction of an annual production capacity of 300000 tons of recycled aluminum project in Wenxi County, Shanxi Province. Data show that since April 2020, the production and sales of magnesium alloy and aluminum alloy products have been booming, reaching the best level in the same period in history. Ruiger Metal is located in Pei she Township, Wenxi County, Shanxi Province and Beihai Economic Development Zone, Binzhou City, Shandong Province. "View details

[Argentina Aluar Aluminum plans to resume production of 460000 tons of electrolytic aluminum] Argentina Aluar Aluminum Company recently said that after half a year of production reduction operation, the company is considering resuming production. Affected by the epidemic, the aluminum plant announced a 50% reduction in production at the end of March this year. The company says the speed of the resumption will depend on the safety and sustainability of the production environment. Aluar is a raw aluminum producer in Argentina with an annual production capacity of 460000 tons, of which 75 per cent is used for export, with export markets concentrated in the United States and Brazil.

Recently, Yunxi Wenshan Zinc and Indium smelting Co., Ltd. (as of June 25, China Enfei Engineering and Technology Co., Ltd. completed the engineering design and core technical equipment research and development of Yunxi Wenshan 100000 tons of zinc / year, 60 tons of indium / year smelting technical transformation project to achieve 60490.2 tons of zinc ingots. The actual production capacity reached 109.7% of the designed capacity, the highest since it was put into production. "View details

[Jinchuan Group Nickel smelter Top blowing Furnace successfully ignited] recently, the top blowing furnace of Jinchuan Group Nickel smelter was successfully ignited, marking the full completion of the 40-day continuous overhaul of the top blowing furnace system. The continuous overhaul of the top blowing furnace system in the nickel smelter began on August 14th, involving more than 1000 maintenance projects and 256technical transformation and upgrading projects.

[Jinchuan Group: implementing the annual production and operation target of "six guarantees and six stability" Jinchuan News reported that in accordance with the requirements of the provincial party committee and provincial government to "maintain the economy and promote growth", Jinchuan Group completed the overhaul of the whole system in the third quarter and fully entered the full production of nickel, copper, cobalt, precious and non-ferrous metal processing products in the fourth quarter.

[Guoxuan Hi-Tech Lithium Iron Phosphate Energy Breakthrough + JTM Module Innovation "upwards] on Sept. 17, at the" Global New Energy vehicle Industry chain Innovation Conference "sponsored by the China Electric vehicle Association, Xu Xingwu, senior vice president of Hefei Guoxuan Hi-Tech Power Energy Co., Ltd., said," Volkswagen plans to put 1.5 million pure electric vehicles on the Chinese market by 2025, which will require battery 100GWh. The top priority of Guoxuan is to do this piece to the extreme and do the best, because this is the market on the doorstep of home. From 10% to 20%, 30%, up to 50% is a lot, then the position of Guoxuan can continue to go up. " "View details

[Guizhou will build 800 green mines this year and withdraw from all substandard mines in 2025] recently, the Guizhou Provincial Natural Resources Department issued the "implementation opinions and assessment measures for comprehensively promoting the construction of green mines." The measures stipulate that by 2020, a new green mine construction model with saving and efficient, beautiful environment and harmonious mining land will be basically formed. By 2025, green exploration will be carried out in an all-round way, and all mines will meet the construction standards of green mines. The main bodies that do not meet the standards of green exploration and green mines gradually withdraw from the market.

[EU announces key mineral resources list 2020] the European Union released the latest revised list of key mineral resources on September 3, 2020. a total of 30 minerals of great economic and strategic value to the European Union have been included in the EU 2020 critical resources list),. The EU has routinely updated its list of key mineral resources every three years since it first published its list in 2008; the most recent update was in 2017. Compared with 2017, helium is deleted and lithium, strontium, titanium and bauxite are added to the list. "View details

Macro focus

Safe: in August, banks settled foreign exchange of 1.1062 trillion yuan, sold foreign exchange of 1.1328 trillion yuan, and had a deficit of 26.5 billion yuan; from January to August, banks settled foreign exchange of 8.3337 trillion yuan, sold foreign exchange of 8.6386 trillion yuan, and accumulated a deficit of 304.9 billion yuan.

The central bank and other six ministries and commissions: support domestic banks and non-bank payment institutions to cooperate in providing cross-border RMB receipt and payment services to market entities such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement and trade, and comprehensive foreign trade services on the premise of compliance with the law. We will relax restrictions on the use of RMB income from some capital accounts and increase the flexibility and autonomy in the use of funds by foreign-funded enterprises. Abolish the restrictions on domestic reinvestment of RMB capital of non-investment foreign-invested enterprises.

Shanghai Stock Exchange: the Shanghai Composite Total income Index will be officially released on October 9, which comprehensively reflects the overall performance of stock prices and dividends of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and provides more dimensional market observation tools. The existing Shanghai Composite Index is a price index, which reflects the overall performance of the share prices of listed companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but does not reflect the dividend situation of listed companies.

The Baltic dry index rose 0.15% to 1296.

Borrelli, vice president of the European Commission and "foreign minister", said that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in the form of a presidential memorandum on May 8, 2018, and has since stopped participating in any activities related to the agreement. Therefore, the United States cannot be regarded as a participant in the Iran nuclear agreement and cannot activate the "rapid resumption of sanctions" mechanism in UN Security Council Resolution 2231. In view of this, the commitment to lift sanctions against Iraq under the Iran nuclear agreement continues to apply.

Israeli Prime Minister's Office and Ministry of Health: the nationwide "city closure" measures came into effect 14:00 on 18 September. This is the second time that Israel has implemented this measure after the nationwide "city closure" was implemented from March to May this year. At present, nearly 7000 police officers and soldiers have been deployed across the country to carry out the task of "sealing off the city."

Terminal information

[GE wins order for 87 MW wind turbines in Morocco] GE Renewable Energy said it had won supply contracts from EDF's EDF RE and Mitsui's Mitsui&Co to provide equipment for Morocco's 87 MW Taza onshore wind farm. "View details

[European car sales plunged 18% in August or continued until the end of the year] in the month, European car sales plunged nearly 1/5, dashing hopes for the auto industry to recover from the epidemic, and the market may even remain depressed until the end of the year. In August, new car sales in the European passenger car market fell 17.6 per cent from a year earlier to 884394, according to (ACEA), the European automakers' association. The decline widened again from the previous month (- 3.7 per cent), ending a narrowing trend for three consecutive months. "View details

[August 70 city house price growth stable in the first half of September 35 city real estate sales decline] August real estate sales rose steadily. The month-on-month growth rate of house prices in 70 cities is relatively stable, with the year-on-year growth rate slightly reduced to 4.7%, while the month-on-month growth rate slightly increased to 0.6%. Even though the base rose in the same period last year, the growth rate of national land production and sales continued to rise to 13.7%. The highest growth rate since July 17, which also led to the elimination of real estate inventories, and the growth rate of the area of real estate for sale across the country fell to 0.5% in August. Affected by the high base in the same period last year, the growth rate of 35 urban land production and sales in the first half of September was 2.3% lower than that in August. Recently, the speed of land acquisition by real estate enterprises has slowed down. The growth rate of national land purchase area expanded to-7.6% in August, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities also declined significantly last week.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: together with relevant departments, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to solidly promote the management of low-speed electric vehicles and speed up the formulation of standards for low-speed electric vehicles. we will further improve the specific management measures for the production, sales, taxes and fees, insurance and use management, and after-sales service of low-speed electric vehicles, and improve the management system of low-speed electric vehicles.

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