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Domineering! OPEC+ meeting tightens restrictions on production reduction "cheating country" Saudi Arabia warns short sellers against rising international oil prices and soymeal by nearly 3%
Sep 18,2020 08:58CST
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: on the evening of September 17th in Beijing, (JMMC), the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC+, held a meeting. OPEC+ said it had no intention of further restricting supply, but stressed full compliance with production agreements and monitoring of "cheating countries" to compensate for excess production. In addition, Abdulaziz, the Saudi energy minister, called out bears and warned oil speculators not to go against OPEC+ and that OPEC+ could "proactively" adjust production cuts in 2021 if necessary without having to wait until the next conference. International oil prices closed higher, as of the early morning close this morning, WTI crude oil is up 1.95%, Jing Brent crude oil is up 2.05%.

It is worth noting that last night, most of the agricultural futures on the outer disk closed up, of which American soybean meal rose 2.79% and American sugar rose 2.11%. Analysts believe that the double interest factors of lower expectations of US bean production and strong demand in China are the main reasons for the recent rise in bean futures prices. However, at a time when the two positive factors of falling per unit yield and strong US bean exports are gradually digested by the market, there are signs of stagflation in short-term soybean meal prices, and subsequent increases need to be driven by new contradictions. the future can focus on the increase in new exports (October), the recovery of feed demand and the cultivation of new soybeans in Brazil (November), as well as the continued progress of Sino-US trade relations.

On Thursday, domestic commodity futures closed mixed. Agricultural products rose strongly, oil and oil continued to rise, soybean oil 2101 contract rose 5.09% so far this week, palm oil 2101 contract rose 6.06% this week, rapeseed 2101 contract rose 3.24% so far this week. Corn, sugar and red dates are strong. Black led the decline, with iron ore falling nearly 3 per cent and thermal coal diving by more than 1 per cent. Non-ferrous metals plummeted, with Shanghai Nickel and Shanghai Silver down more than 2%, and Shanghai Tin and Shanghai Zinc down more than 1%. Crude oil futures rebounded, up more than 1%.

The domestic futures market is "green, manure, red and thin", with oil and oil leading the rise.

Yesterday, the domestic futures market oil oil continued to rise. Xie Wen, an analyst of futures agricultural products at CUHK, told Futures Daily that from a fundamental point of view, Malaysian inventories are lower than expected, export data in September are good, and La Nina expectations are likely to occur in autumn, and market worries about the supply side have increased. The domestic epidemic situation is stable, with the advent of Shuangjie, the demand is more exuberant, the market to do more oil power is strong.

"the spot price of domestic soybean oil has risen continuously, with prices ranging from 150 per cent to 250 yuan per ton. Excessively high basis differences may lead to a certain delay in moving goods, but in the near future, downstream buyers still have reserve demand, coupled with the low tradable inventory of soybean oil, and the state of high base difference in soybean oil may continue in the short term. U. S. soybean prices hit a new high, good domestic soybean oil prices, domestic soybean oil high base difference state continues, soybean oil prices may continue to be strong. In view of the fact that soybean oil has run to the high point of the stage, pay attention to the high risk in operation. " Xie Wen said.

Malaysian palm oil exports fell 11.31 per cent to 1.58 million tonnes in August from 1.78 million tonnes last month. By country, exports to China rose 2.21 per cent month-on-month to 295000 tons, exports to India fell 27.56 per cent to 329900 tons, and exports to the European Union fell 7.49 per cent to 159100 tons. Xie Wen believes that after last month's strong exports, it is certain that there will be a month-on-month decline in export volume this month, but this time the export data are higher than market expectations, and the buying volume of China and the European Union is relatively stable. India's purchases have declined due to the decline in demand for replenishment and the impact of the epidemic. In the later stage, India experienced an explosive replenishment in July, although it declined in August, but the order of magnitude is still relatively objective, and September purchases may return to a relatively strong state. Judging from high-frequency data, SGS data show that Malaysian palm oil exports rose 25.6 per cent month-on-month to 467400 tons from September 1 to 10, of which exports to India will double that of last month. On the whole, the global epidemic is still not under control, and once the epidemic improves, there is still room for demand to rise in the future.

In terms of rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed crushing capacity is at a low level, and there are 240000 tons in coastal rapeseed oil depots, down 46 per cent from the same period last year. At present, it is profitable for Canada to import rapeseed oil, but in view of the poor entry of imported rapeseed oil in August, the actual import volume of rapeseed oil is not good. Rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply problems still support the price of rapeseed oil. The spot turnover of rapeseed oil is light, and the base difference quotation is stable. Looking forward to the future, Xie Wen believes that the rising prices of soybean oil and palm oil boost the price of rapeseed oil, which is more likely to follow other oil prices in the short term.

Iron ore leads down black commodities

Black commodities as a whole fell sharply this week, with the previous strong iron ore falling the most, the main contract down about 7% so far this week, threaded hot rolls down nearly 3%, and coke about 1.5%.

Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, told Futures Daily that there were three main reasons for the sharp drop in black commodity prices this week: first, the new real estate construction and infrastructure data in August were lower than expected. The expectation of an improvement in steel demand during the peak season was basically falsified, dealing a big blow to market confidence. Second, iron ore shipments have increased significantly, the arrival and port inventories have also increased significantly, and the total and structural supply of iron ore have been significantly alleviated; third, the apparent demand and destocking of rebar are still not satisfactory. high output and high inventory obviously suppress the price, at the same time, the low profit of raw materials makes the pricing of raw materials need to be revalued.

In terms of iron ore supply, it is generally abundant. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, China imported 100.36 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in August, down 10.9 percent from the previous month. From January to August, China imported 759.915 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. According to Mysteel statistics, from the beginning of the year to September 4, the arrival volume of imported mines in the six northern ports was 391.871 million tons, an increase of 55.805 million tons over the same period last year and an increase of 16.61 percent over the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, iron ore imports and arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply is generally abundant.

According to statistics, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 163 steel mills was 70.72 percent, 0.27 percentage points lower than last week, and capacity utilization was 78.43 percent, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. Tangshan continued to limit production over the weekend due to air quality. Steel mill output fell 107800 tons to 3.7154 million tons month-on-month at the beginning of September, showing signs of a decline. After July, blast furnace profits have been significantly compressed, but the change of blast furnace capacity utilization is not obvious, the overall remains high, strong demand is the core factor to support iron ore prices.

As of Sept. 4, Mysteel China 45 MTR ore stocks totaled 113.7399 million tons, up 635100 tons from last week. Total port inventories accumulated slightly for three consecutive weeks, still the lowest in the same period in nearly three years. From a sub-regional point of view, inventories in East China and South China have increased. Among them, due to the slight improvement in port pressure in East China, the overall unloading capacity has increased, so the inventory growth is larger. In addition, there has been a decline in inventory and dredging ports along the Yangtze River and in the northeast, mainly due to the arrival of typhoons and the closure of some ports, affecting the berthing and unloading of ships and the pick-up of steel mills.

Affected by Tangshan's production restrictions and increased overhaul in some steel mills with low profits, the operating rate of domestic blast furnaces has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the high output of hot metal has dropped somewhat. At present, the overall supply and demand of iron ore are at a high level, but the margin has weakened, the total amount of iron ore has not been lacking, and the variety structure has also been repaired. From the valuation point of view, the current absolute price and profit of iron ore is too high, in the case of weaker finished material prices and low profits, the spot price of iron ore has basically peaked, and it is expected that the iron ore disk will also run mainly with weak oscillations. Qiu Yuecheng said.

Li Hairong, an iron ore researcher at Zhonghui Futures, believes that since the implementation of the Tangshan production restriction policy, obvious changes have taken place in the structure of iron ore varieties, the proportion of high-grade ore and lump ore has increased, powder prices have weakened compared with the previous period, and port inventories have accumulated slightly, and the support for futures prices has been weakened. At the present stage, under the condition of weak iron ore prices, the high discount of futures and the low number of available days of the port are still powerful factors to support the price. Pay attention to control the risk and do not pursue short blindly.

OPEC+ meeting to strengthen restrictions on production reduction "cheating countries", oil prices will rise?

On the evening of September 17th in Beijing, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) held a meeting. After several hours of meeting, OPEC+ issued a statement in the early hours of September 18, although it had no intention to further restrict supply, but stressed that it should fully abide by the production reduction agreement and supervise "cheating countries" to compensate for previous overproduction. Affected by the positive impact of the OPEC+ meeting, WTI crude oil futures, Brent crude oil futures closed higher.

In addition, Abdulaziz, the Saudi energy minister, called out bears and warned oil speculators not to go against OPEC+ and that OPEC+ could "proactively" adjust production cuts in 2021 if necessary without having to wait until the next conference.

At present, the supply of crude oil is lower than the demand. Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the current supply is 1.5 million b / d-2 million b / d less than demand, but the recovery rate of global crude oil demand is slowing, and crude oil demand is expected to fully recover in the second quarter of 2021.

At the same time, the OPEC+ warned that the outbreak could continue to dampen demand. The OPEC+ technical team warned that severe outbreaks in some countries could dampen oil demand despite initial signs of economic recovery and declining oil stocks.

Dong Chao, a crude oil analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures, told Futures Daily that there are two reasons for supporting the rise in crude oil: one is the hurricane factor. This week, under the influence of Hurricane Sally, the United States shut down 27.48 percent of oil production and about 29.7 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, losing 400000 barrels of capacity per day. Hurricane Sally will only affect capacity, not refinery demand. At the same time, under the influence of La Nina, hurricanes in the United States will increase significantly this year, which is expected to be the most active hurricane season since 2005. There is currently a new depression forming in the southwest of the Gulf of Mexico, which may have a lasting impact on production. Second, the Fed sent a dove signal that it would keep interest rates unchanged until 2023. The bull market in commodities and stock markets is mainly driven by the constant injection of water by central banks, and the dovish comments have given crude oil bulls more confidence.

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