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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the 12th batch of scrap copper and aluminum scrap is announced * Cobalt storage may continue to be slightly bearish in the short term.
Sep 18,2020 07:20CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] 12th batch of scrap copper, Batch volume of scrap aluminum scrap announced * weekly decline in domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory * Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park and 2.03 million tons of green aluminum project put into production * consolidation near Shanghai lead Wanwu * obvious disturbance of short-term macro factors of Shanghai nickel * domestic demand of steel in India has picked up and improved the import of manganese raw materials in the third quarter * cobalt collection and storage may continue to be slightly bearish in the short term * August sales of new energy passenger cars Analysis * Steel price shock downward * Thread removal such as "drawing" heavy resistance to price increase * Vale's future iron ore production capacity may reach 450 million tons / year
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[live broadcast] how do auto parts companies watch big shots against the wind on Fly?

[macro outlook] Today, we focus on the preliminary value of the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in September.

[overnight quotation] the outer disk metal Pu Dilun fell 1.1%, US stocks fell across the board, and oil prices rose more than 2%.

Today's focus

[the 12th batch of scrap copper and aluminum scrap is announced] according to the 12th batch of imported scrap aluminum just announced, its quantity is only 121000 tons. Generally speaking, the approval of waste aluminum in the first quarter is usually in 3-4 batches, and the quantity of a certain batch is the largest, so it is expected that the approval of Q4 waste aluminum will be only 13-150000 tons, and the cumulative import approval of 1-12 batches of about 60% of Q3 is only 818000 tons. Domestic waste aluminum supply is still in shortage. "View details

[SMM analysis: Q4 import waste aluminum is reduced by 40% compared with the previous month. Domestic waste aluminum supply is still in short supply.] according to the data of China solid waste Chemicals Management Network, the 12th batch of imported waste aluminum approvals is only 121000 tons. Generally speaking, the approval of waste aluminum is usually in 3-4 batches in the first quarter, and the quantity of a certain batch is the largest, so it is expected that the approval of waste aluminum of Q4 will be only 13-150000 tons, and the cumulative import approval of 1-12 batches of about 60% of Q3 is only 818000 tons. combined with existing customs data and previous surplus batches. "check details.

[SMM data: the weekly inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 24000 tons to 740000 tons] on September 17, the weekly inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 24000 tons to 740000 tons, with the South China Sea and Gongyi contributing mainly to the decline, mainly due to the lack of arrival and the maintenance of warehouse delivery; the weekly inventory in Wuxi and Shanghai was tired, mainly due to the increase in arrival. "View details

[SMM analysis: Shanghai lead Wanwu consolidation is difficult to break through the tight encirclement? Overall, the lower part of lead is supported by the cost of recycled lead, while the lack of bright spots on the consumer side shows a lack of upward momentum. It is expected that short-term lead prices will remain volatile, and further attention should be paid to the impact of the new solid waste law on the production of recycled lead. "View details

[SMM brief comment: Shanghai Nickel opening diving led the decline in non-ferrous short-term macro factors disturbance] SMM believes that spot fundamentals fluctuate less, a small amount of purchases are made downstream on demand, and the fundamental focus is still biased towards the nickel ore-nickel iron-stainless steel industry line. The price of nickel ore has risen all the way in the case of a considerable shortage of supply, the high price of Ferro nickel has been supported by raw material support and tight supply, and the mentality of high production in stainless steel plants has not been significantly reduced for the time being, and this production line still has a strong support for nickel price. however, at present, the fluctuation of macro factors has a more obvious disturbance to the nickel price in the short term. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 114000-120000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 14500-15400 US dollars / ton. "View details

[SMM analysis: India's steel domestic demand picked up somewhat and manganese raw material imports improved in the third quarter] although India's steel exports decreased significantly in August compared with the previous period, domestic demand picked up somewhat. According to SMM statistics, the overall import of manganese, the raw material needed for steelmaking in India, increased by 27% month-on-month in July to 1301 tons. In addition, according to SMM statistics, India's main metal manganese imports decreased sharply by 50.19% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. At present, domestic demand is gradually improving, which may lead to a positive import of raw materials in the third quarter. "View details

[SMM analysis: cobalt storage may continue to be slightly bearish in the short term] combined with future expectations, the storage support for cobalt prices is still there, reserves may be insufficient in the short term, domestic electrolytic cobalt stocks are high, and cobalt prices are slightly bearish; after the price falls, the State Reserve may collect and store again, which is also possible. Therefore, SMM believes that, combined with the demand for battery materials in the fourth quarter and the arrival of cobalt raw materials in Hong Kong, the collection and storage of cobalt prices are still in place, and cobalt prices may fall, but the space is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fall to 25-260000 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter. "View details

[SMM analysis: August sales analysis of new energy passenger vehicles: the number of insured vehicles in August was 93000, Tesla returned to the first place] according to the insured data of new energy passenger vehicles, the number of insured vehicles in August was 93000, up 2.7% from the previous month. Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles were 75000, accounting for 80.4%, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 18000, accounting for 19.6%. "View details

[thread inventory report of the third week of September: there is a lot of resistance to the increase in prices in the third week of September.] inventory elimination has accelerated this week, but under the high yield, the average weekly decline since entering the "Golden Nine" has only been maintained at 80, 000 tons. it is far less than the 416000 tons in the same period last year, and the total stock has increased by more than 50% year-on-year. And at present, electric furnace plants and blast furnace plants still have small profits, and the space for output decline is very limited, and it is difficult for terminal demand to break out centrally under the influence of funds and other factors, high inventory will probably become the norm of the market in the later stage. the space above the rebar price is firmly suppressed by inventory. But fortunately, on the one hand, the current fundamental month-on-month performance is still improving, on the other hand, the cost side still has a certain support for prices, coupled with the National Day before the release of a certain demand for replenishment, so the price downside space is also relatively limited in the short term. "View details

[SMM analysis: real estate is expected to weaken steel prices fluctuate down] this week, a number of economic data were released centrally, causing sharp fluctuations in the market. Although the growth rate of investment data was OK, the area of new housing construction decreased by 3.6%, and the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared with January to July. Combined with the central policy tone of "housing speculation" and recent measures to tighten real estate policy in many places, real estate demand is expected to weaken in the later period, leading to a sharp decline in the market. However, demand is still there in the short-term peak season, and cement prices in major areas are still strong. According to the statistics of the Hong Kong Federation of passengers, the average daily retail sales in the second week of September were 43000, an increase of 39% over the same period last year and 6% month-on-month, indicating that there is still some support on the demand side. Therefore, the downward trend of the market may not be smooth, and there may be momentum for a rebound in the short term. "View details

[SMM special topic: Chongqing Iron and Steel changes ownership China Baowu "Baowu Series" steel enterprises add another member] on September 16, Chongqing Iron and Steel issued a "suggestive announcement on the change of shareholders' rights and interests and the change of actual controllers". The announcement shows that the actual controller of the company has been changed from Siyuanhe Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd. to China Baowu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. This equity change is the transfer of the partnership rights and interests of the Siyuan he Industrial Development Fund to Desheng Group by Siyuan he Investment, the former actual controller of the company. at the same time, the Siyuan he Industrial Development Fund was dissolved and 75% of the equity of Longevity Steel was distributed non-cash to China Baowu and Desheng Group in proportion to the actual contribution. Baowu of China acquired 40% equity of Longevity Steel and reached an action agreement with Zhanxin Fund to obtain the control of Longevity Steel. As a result, 2096981600 shares of the company are indirectly controlled, accounting for 23.51% of the total share capital of the company. Baowu of China has become the actual controller of the company. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[copper production at the first Quantum: Cobre Panama Mine is expected to decline this year to maintain its full-year production target] first Quantum (First Quantum Minerals) said on Wednesday that its business was no longer expected to be disrupted by the epidemic, given that protective measures had been put in place. The, Cobre Panama mine affected by the outbreak was closed in early April and there has been no confirmed case of novel coronavirus in the mine since May. After that, it resumed normal operation in early July and achieved full capacity operation ahead of schedule in August. "View details

[Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park and 2.03 million tons of Green Aluminum Project put into production] at 10:00 on September 17, Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park and 2.03 million tons of Green Aluminum Project production ceremony was held in Yanshan County, Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province. this marks that the 2.03 million-ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity transfer project of Yunnan Hongtai New Materials Co., Ltd. has officially entered the production stage. "View details

[hot-dip galvanizing sales of medium color galvanizing industry hit a new high] by the end of August, the total sales of zinc alloy was 67000 tons. According to the schedule, the sales task was over schedule and reached a new record.

[Atlantic Nickel will invest US $335 million in the Brazilian nickel sulphide project] it has been reported recently that the private mining company Atlantic Nickel has announced plans to launch an underground nickel sulphide project in northeastern Brazil at a capital cost of US $335 million, starting in 2026. The company, owned by Appian Capital Advistory, a UK private equity fund, has issued a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for its Santa Rita nickel-copper-cobalt mine, one of the largest open-pit nickel sulphide mines in the world. "View details

[Ukraine's imports of nickel ore increased 30 per cent year-on-year from January to August] according to Ukrainian local media reports, Ukraine's imports of nickel ore and concentrate increased by 30 per cent to 1.12 million tons from January to August 2020 compared with the same period in 2019. According to statistics released by the Ukrainian General Administration of Customs, imports of nickel ore increased by 31.2% to US $55.706 million. Ukraine did not export or re-export these products from January to August 2020, while it supplied 7999 tons of nickel ore to Greece at a price of US $322000 in the same period in 2019.

Recently, Vale announced that it would terminate the operation of Ferro-manganese at the Vale Mangan ê s factory in the city of Sim à esFilho, Bahia. [Vale: will terminate the business of ferromanganese alloy in Sim à esFilho, Bahia state]. Over the past decade, Vale Mangan ê s has tried all possible alternatives to keep the business sustainable and competitive in the market. "View details

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position is down 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the current position is 1246.99 tons.

The world's largest silver ETF--iShares Silver Trust position decreased by 55 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position is 17269.03 tons.

[Heraeus: global platinum market is expected to have a surplus of more than 1 million ounces this year] according to Heraeus precious metals, a top platinum group metal smelter, due to the impact of the epidemic, the global platinum market is expected to have a surplus of more than 1 million ounces this year, and platinum demand may be the slowest to recover after the epidemic. Platinum is relatively cheap and has attracted new interest from investors this year. Platinum ETF positions reached a record 3.6 million ounces in August after falling to 3 million ounces in April, and platinum ETF positions have increased by 272000 ounces so far this year. "View details

Fujian Xinlu Tungsten products Deep processing Project was officially put into production yesterday! Yesterday, the commissioning ceremony of the tungsten products deep processing project of Fujian Xinlu Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. was held in Yanshi Town, Xinluo District. Li Jiancheng, secretary of the municipal party committee, Zheng Zhen, chairman of Fujian Metallurgical (holding) Co., Ltd., Huang Changgeng, chairman of Xiamen Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd., and major responsible comrades such as urban leaders and leaders of the management committee of Xiamen Dragon Cooperation Zone attended and witnessed the formal commissioning of the project. "View details

[steel bar production rose 3.7 per cent from January to August] according to the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic steel production in August was 24.133 million tons, an increase of 9.2 per cent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to August was 171.534 million tons, an increase of 3.7 per cent over the same period last year. In August, domestic wire rod production was 14.656 million tons, an increase of 7 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to August was 106.258 million tons, an increase of 3.4 percent over the same period last year. In August, domestic cold-rolled sheet production was 3.269 million tons, an increase of 5.3 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to August was 23.938 million tons, an increase of 0.7 percent over the same period last year. In August, China produced 15.778 million tons of medium, thick and wide steel strip, an increase of 19.2 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to August was 110.32 million tons, an increase of 8.6 percent over the same period last year.

[China Iron and Steel Association: steel prices in the domestic market continued to rise in August] in August, steel demand in the domestic market continued to improve, and steel prices continued to rise, but due to the rapid release of iron and steel production capacity, the pressure on the supply side increased, and the increase in steel prices narrowed somewhat. "View details

[Vale: future iron ore production capacity may reach 450 million tons per year] Vale said on Wednesday that it plans to increase iron ore production capacity to 400m tons per year and could even reach 450 million tons per year in the future. however, the company did not specify a specific time. At present, the company has an iron ore production capacity of 318 million tons per year, and in 2018, the company produced 385 million tons of iron ore. Vale aims to produce 3-330 million tons of iron ore this year.

Macro focus

[World Health Organization (WHO): global cumulative number of novel coronavirus confirmed cases reached 29737453] according to the latest data from World Health Organization (WHO) 's website, as of 15:35 (21:35) central European time on the 17th, the number of global confirmed cases increased by 292307 over the previous day to 29737453, and the number of deaths increased by 6057 to 937391.

[World Health Organization (WHO) 's European Office: the spread of novel coronavirus's infection in Europe is shocking] World Health Organization (WHO) 's European office held a press conference in Denmark on September 17, local time. Hans, director of the European Office, said that novel coronavirus's spread in Europe is very grim and shocking. "the situation before us is very serious," he said. The number of cases reported each week now exceeds the number of cases reported when the outbreak in Europe first peaked in March this year. Last week, more than 300000 cases were reported each week in the area. More than half of European countries have reported more than 10% more cases in the past two weeks. Of these, the number of new cases reported by seven countries more than tripled over the same period. "

[more than 6.66 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, as of 17:00 eastern time on 17 September, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 6.66 million, reaching 6662256, and a total of 197397 deaths.

[the Fed is considering extending restrictions on bank dividends and share buybacks] the Fed is considering extending restrictions on bank dividends and share buybacks until the end of 2020 and will decide whether to extend them in the next two weeks. The restriction was scheduled to expire at the end of the third quarter. If the limit is extended to the end of this year, banks may be disappointed. The agency had previously said that share buybacks could resume in the fourth quarter of this year, if allowed by regulators. The Fed also released two hypothetical scenarios for stress tests on Wall Street banks, which bear some resemblance to the economic losses caused by COVID-19 's epidemic. The latest balance sheets of banks that have reflected the impact of the epidemic will be assessed.

Terminal information

[general Motors adopts Tesla strategy to promote the development of electric vehicles] on September 17, General Motors adopted a Tesla strategy to promote the development of electric vehicles. According to foreign media, GM will officially announce at a media conference that it has designed and planned to produce five interchangeable drive units and three engines.

[LG Chemical formally spun off its battery business in December] LG Chemical said on Sept. 17 that it plans to split its battery business into an independent new company, which will be wholly owned by LG Chemical, and aims to strengthen its expertise and market dominance by focusing on the battery business.

[national expert Group on New Energy vehicle Innovation Project: it is not recommended to establish a fuel ban schedule] on September 16, the "2020 Global New Energy vehicle supply chain Innovation Conference" co-sponsored by Nanjing Municipal Government and China Electric vehicle Association opened. Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy vehicle Innovation Project expert Group, revealed at the meeting that the 2.0 version of the "Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology" organized by the Institute of Automotive Engineering has been reviewed by experts and is expected to be officially released soon. Wang Binggang also said that the expert group does not recommend the establishment of a timetable for a ban on combustion, does not advocate the slogan of a ban on combustion in China, and that energy-efficient vehicles and new energy vehicles should be developed at the same time in the next 15 years. The expert group believes that in the next 15 years, China's traditional cars should be fully transformed to hybrid power, and it may be more in line with the national conditions to replace the fuel ban schedule with a fully electric-driven plan.

[GM adopts Tesla strategy to promote the development of electric vehicles] General Motors has adopted Tesla strategy to promote the development of electric vehicles. GM is about to announce at a media conference that it has designed and plans to produce five interchangeable drive units and three engines of its own. Last week, Adam Kwakowski, GM's executive chief engineer of global electric propulsion, said GM would be better able to integrate these components with other cars by designing an internal electric drive system. But this strategy is very similar to that adopted by Tesla, who designs and produces most of Tesla's electric car parts internally.

Related market

[9800 new enterprises related to solid waste treatment in China in the first half of the year] since September, China's new solid waste law has been formally implemented. The newly revised solid waste law puts forward more stringent requirements for garbage classification, excessive packaging, plastic pollution treatment and so on. According to the data, there are 54000 enterprises related to solid waste treatment in China. Jiangsu Province ranks first with 6500, while Guangdong and Fujian rank second or third. The number of related enterprises increased by 13500 in 2019, an increase of 4.4 times over the figure of five years ago. In the first half of this year, 9800 new enterprises were registered, an increase of 63.3 per cent over the same period last year. In addition, solid waste treatment-related enterprises with a registered capital of more than 10 million account for 42 per cent.

[the seventh largest semiconductor closed test project in the world settled in Yantai] on the afternoon of September 16, Yantai held a strategic docking meeting and cooperation project signing activity with Zhongguancun Rongxin Financial Information Industry Alliance. The seventh largest semiconductor closed test project and intelligent technology M & A fund project in the world were settled in Yantai. It is reported that this signed semiconductor high-end closed test project. Zhilu Capital wholly acquired Singapore United Technology, the seventh largest integrated circuit closed testing company and the third largest automotive electronic packaging and testing company in the world, and introduced the world's leading automotive gauge-level and wafer-level packaging technology into Yantai. build a world-class closed test base and R & D center in Yantai Development Zone.

[Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council: promoting the fair opening of oil and gas infrastructure to enterprises of all forms of ownership and supporting private enterprises to participate in the construction of major railway projects] the meeting proposed to further create a level playing field for the development of private enterprises. It is necessary to promote the fair opening of oil and gas infrastructure to enterprises of all forms of ownership, and support private enterprises to participate in the construction of major railway projects.

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