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[SMM Metal Breakfast] Powell summed up the main points of the press conference in September * the rebar is stepping into the weak concussion.
Sep 17,2020 07:16CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Powell's September press conference summary * Jiang Copper's new 220000-ton copper rod production line in North China has been completed and put into production * waste aluminum prices continue to rise * the open-pit coal industry plans to sell 887000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2020 * the United States removes aluminum tariffs on Canada * the price of nickel and iron is stable under the double support of raw material support and tight supply * the spot price of stainless steel is more stable than futures. Sales of car companies increased year-on-year in August * rebar entered a weak shock * the decline in iron ore widened to 5% * rare earth resources in Longgong, Angola increased to 4.47 million tons * Tesla's "Battery Day" conjecture
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[important] after the epidemic, the automobile industry chain should have a strong charge! It's the day after tomorrow that the bosses gather together and don't miss the opportunity!

[overnight market] domestic metals fell and US oil rose more than 5%, the biggest increase since early June.

[macro outlook] Today, focus on the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week from September 12 to September 12.

Today's focus

[summary of Powell's September press conference] 1. The Fed is ready to adjust its asset purchases when the time is right, and we are far from running out of ammunition. There is still a lot more (out of Ammo), can do. 2. More financial support from the federal government may be needed, and state and local governments are busy dealing with the decline in fiscal recovery; in the absence of follow-up rescue measures, I am afraid that the US economy will eventually be hurt, when the economy will face downside risks. 3. In the past two months (60 days), the US economy has recovered faster than expected, but it is not certain whether this situation will continue. The flexibility that the US economy has shown so far will be called the shutdown benefit policy. 4. Full employment is not a simple figure like the inflation target, it will cover information on employment participation and pay. Questioning the reliability of the PUA unemployment report, saying: the US labour market is clearly far from full employment. 5. Before COVID-19 vaccine is put on the market, some parts of the United States will continue to struggle. The Fed is studying some of the problems with (MSLP), the lending program for ordinary companies (as opposed to large Wall Street banking institutions and large companies), and will make some adjustments to MSLP to try to make MSLP more accessible to ordinary companies. 6. Regulation is still the main factor in maintaining financial stability. The Fed's bond purchases support market stability and do not believe that there is a close relationship between QE and financial stability.

[Sandfire Resources has been approved to start the first phase of the Montana copper project] Sandfire Resources America has been approved to carry out the first phase of its Montana copper mine, and last month it is reported that the company received a mining license issued by the country's environmental quality department. At present, Sandfire Resources America can start building roads and reservoirs, and the company will continue to apply for permits for underground tunnel construction as well as mining and mineral processing. The Montana copper mine, located near Sheep Creek, the main tributary of the Smith River, is part of the Black Butte Copper Project project and has previously been opposed by a number of groups and institutions, mainly because of disputes over the environmental impact of the construction of the mine.

[SMM: low inventory encounter downstream replenishment of waste aluminum prices continue to rise] in terms of waste aluminum prices, raw and cooked aluminum prices have risen to a certain extent, raw aluminum prices have increased more significantly. Mainly because the traditional recycled aluminum enterprises are worried about the shortage of waste aluminum in the later period, the price of raw aluminum in coastal areas has risen more obviously, different regions continue to maintain an increase of 100,000,200 yuan / ton, and the price of raw aluminum in inland areas is relatively stable, with a small supplementary increase. In addition, more recycled aluminum enterprises in the southern region reported lower inventory, in the case of suppliers hesitating to sell bullish, there is also an increase in the purchase price of 100,000,200 yuan / ton. "View details

[the United States removes aluminum tariffs on Canada] according to the official release of the US Trade Representative Office on the 15th local time, the United States expects aluminum imports from Canada to "fall back to normal levels" in the next few months of this year, so the United States will abolish aluminum import tariffs on Canada. "compared with January to July this year, the average monthly import of Canadian aluminum will be reduced by about 50%, so the United States has decided to revise its policy of imposing a 10% retaliatory tariff on Canadian aluminum," the US Trade Representative Office said in a statement. continue to implement a tariff-free policy. " However, the US trade representative office also said that if Canada's aluminum imports exceed the limit set by the trade representative office, it will impose another 10 per cent retaliatory tariff on imports that month.

SMM analysis: Shanghai nickel afternoon diving decline was close to 2% supply-side tight support logic will be loosened? SMM believes that the fundamental focus of nickel price is still on the nickel ore-nickel iron-stainless steel industry line. The price of nickel ore has risen all the way under the condition of considerable shortage of supply. The high price of Ferro nickel has been supported by both raw material support and tight supply. The mentality of high production in stainless steel plants has not been significantly reduced for the time being. This production line still has a strong support for nickel price. However, the fluctuation of macro factors has obviously disturbed the price of nickel in the short term. Today, the price of nickel seems to have fallen sharply due to the influence of capital sentiment in the afternoon. However, the US dollar index fell rapidly after the close of trading in Shanghai, and Lunni immediately went back to intraday highs, followed the Fed's interest rate resolution in the evening, and is expected to maintain loose liquidity. Short-term Shanghai Nickel may continue to fluctuate at 117000-120000 yuan / ton and Lunni 15100-15400 US dollars / ton. "View details

[SMM analysis: stainless steel futures prices have plummeted by more than 2% today. Spot prices are stable than futures.] stainless steel futures contracts have fallen a lot, but at present, the stainless steel spot market is in the mood repair after the downward trend, and the spot price performance is stable, so the discount for futures contracts is gradually expanding compared with the spot price, reaching as high as 1000 yuan / ton. In the past two days, the spot transaction situation has slightly improved compared with the continuous downward trend of prices last week, but the overall performance is general, and stainless steel prices are expected to remain stable in the follow-up. "View details

[SMM special topic: sales of car companies increased in August compared with the same period last year. "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season is worth looking forward to! On the whole, the sales performance of the whole car enterprises in August was good, especially the performance of the new power car companies. New power car companies are gradually becoming an important participating force in the new energy market. In terms of product planning, EE7, the fourth new car of Xilai Automobile, was exposed or mass produced in the fourth quarter of next year. Weima released its AVP autonomous parking technology jointly developed with Baidu, and unveiled the first new mass production model equipped with AVP autonomous parking technology, becoming the brand with the fastest landing and fastest mass production of L4 self-driving technology in the world. Ideal car will be the first to launch a full-size SUV, of the same class as Mercedes-Benz GLS in 2022. The car will use a new generation of add-on hybrid system, followed by the development of medium-sized and compact SUV to expand the product line. "View details

[southern rare earths announce the latest listing prices of gadolinium oxide and holmium have been lowered] recently, China Southern rare Earth Group Southern rare Earth International Trading Co., Ltd. announced the latest listing prices of medium and heavy rare earth oxides, and the prices of individual rare earth oxides have been reduced. In terms of price changes, the listing price of gadolinium oxide is 175000 yuan / ton, which is 3000 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous period. The listing price of holmium oxide is 425000 yuan / ton, which is 5000 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous period, and the prices of other varieties are the same as the previous period. Among them, samarium oxide is listed at 12000 yuan / ton, europium oxide is listed at 300000 yuan / ton, terbium oxide is listed at 4.95 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide is listed at 1.95 million yuan / ton, erbium oxide is listed at 170000 yuan / ton, ytterbium oxide is listed at 100000 yuan / ton, lutetium oxide is listed at 4.75 million yuan / ton. Yttrium oxide is listed at 22000 yuan / ton and scandium oxide at 9 million yuan / ton. "View details

[SMM thread: the basis is soaring, will the East China market be hit by the release of lock-up resources in Hangzhou? "Heart disease" still needs "demand" for medical treatment. Gold, silver and silver have arrived, and the expectation of the market for strong demand to support the reduction of storage has also entered the final verification period. As of today, Hangzhou thread inventory is 932000 tons, + 272000 tons compared with the same period last year. There is a long way to go to the warehouse, but according to the feedback of market traders, the recent demand situation has not surprised everyone, and the shortage of funds on the construction site is still an important factor restricting market transactions. In the context of high supply, the spot price of East China, which is burdened with high inventory pressure, may be difficult to maintain the current optimistic picture in the fourth quarter. "View details

[SMM analysis: expected to fail panic regenerated rebar into a weak shock] "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season is relatively high risk, if the follow-up demand can not break out, the follow-up price may be mainly a pullback. At present, it is expected that there will be some falsification of demand, coupled with the tightening of urban real estate, and compared with the first half of the year, the north will enter the heating season in mid-late November, the suppression of terminal demand will appear again, and it will be more difficult to go to the warehouse. However, in the short term, steel prices may be dominated by weak shocks. After all, cost support is still in place, cement shipments are rising, digging machine sales hit a new high in the same period, and fundamentals still have support. In the future, we will focus on the change of production and whether the inventory can decline effectively. "View details

[SMM News: the decline of iron ore widens to 5% and the futures price falls below the 800 mark! Recently, the black system showed a weak pattern of strong ore as a whole, and yesterday's real estate data was lower than expected, and the expectation of strong demand for steel failed, causing the market to worry about steel production in the later period, and the raw material end of iron ore fell under pressure. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[Antofagasta Chile Los Pelambres Copper Mine plans to use seawater] according to the investment proposal submitted by Antofagasta (Antofagasta) for its Chilean Los Pelambres copper mine, the mine may stop using water from the Choapa River and nearby wells and instead mainly use seawater from 2025. In this way, the amount of water available for its operation can be guaranteed to extend its operation beyond 2035, and the current environmental permit for the mine expires until 2035. "View details

[big project! This morning, Jiang Copper's new 220000-ton copper rod production line in North China was completed and put into production. Chen Yongyi, member of the standing Committee of the District CPC Committee and director of the United Front work Department of the District CPC Committee, and Hu Xuechun, deputy director of the district, attended the ceremony for the completion and commissioning of the 220000-ton copper rod production line and the opening ceremony of the QME designated settlement warehouse. According to reports, Jiang Copper's new 220000-ton copper rod production line in North China is an intelligent manufacturing system based on the industrial Internet, which can automatically monitor the process parameters of copper rod production process online, dynamically control raw material inventory, product sales and other business data, and view futures information online to realize a new intelligent manufacturing mode of copper rod processing industry. At the same time, the designated settlement warehouse established by the (QME) trading platform of Shenzhen Qianhai Joint Trading Center will realize the new mode of "near-acquisition and far-selling, take-as-you-go, and sell-as-you-go" mode for upstream and downstream enterprises of copper products, which can greatly improve the efficiency of the use of products. "View details

[open-pit coal industry plans to sell 887000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2020] the open-pit coal industry said on the interactive platform that the company holds a 51% stake in Inner Mongolia Huo Coal Hongjun Aluminum Power Co., Ltd., and the price of aluminum products is on the rise recently. at present, everything is normal in production and operation. The company plans to sell 887000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2020, of which 454500 tons are actually sold from January to June 2020.

[Australian Aluminum is on the brink of life and death] Australia's aluminium smelters are being excluded from the global market because of high energy costs, unless they can find a way to generate cheaper electricity, according to the head of an international aluminium producer. Or face closure. "any aluminum producer will take a very serious look at the viability of their factories," said Miles Prosser, director of the (IAI) of the International Aluminum Association. "if you look at comparisons of global electricity prices, which are key determinants of smelter competitiveness, Australia is currently at a fairly high level."

[inner Mongolia Jing'an Nonferrous Nickel Iron Alloy Project has completed an investment of 582 million yuan] the Inner Mongolia Jing'an Nonferrous Nickel Base Alloy New material Construction Project has a total investment of 15 billion yuan to build 36 fully enclosed submerged arc furnaces. The project plans to complete an investment of 2 billion yuan in 2020 and has completed an investment of 582 million yuan this year. "View details

[Yangjiang Hongwang Phase II precision stainless steel plate and strip project with an annual output of 500000 tons is about to start online commissioning] according to Yangjiang sources, the construction of the second phase of Yangjiang Hongwang cold rolling project is speeding up. It is reported that the main project of the Yangjiang Hongwang Phase II project, which was originally scheduled to be put into production next year, has been basically completed, has entered the stage of equipment installation and commissioning, and is scheduled to be formally put into production within this year. "View details

[Ningde Times will invest in Neo Lithium to help develop Argentine mines] it is reported that Ningde Times will buy more than 10 million shares of Neo Lithium, making it the company's third largest shareholder. Ningde Times will also have a seat on Neo Lithium's board of directors and serve as a member of the company's technical committee, which will help Neo draft a feasibility study for its Tres Quebradas lithium project in the province of Catamarca in northern Argentina. The company hopes the project will initially produce 20,000 tons of lithium. The deal is expected to be completed later this year with Chinese government approval. BlackRock will continue to be the largest shareholder in Neo Lithium.

[the global forklift battery market grew at a compound annual rate of 7 per cent in 2020-24] Technavio, an international market research institute, recently released a report saying that the global forklift battery market is expected to grow by US $1.8 billion between 2020 and 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 7 per cent during the period.

The world's largest silver ETF--iShares Silver Trust position fell by 55.01t compared with the previous day, and the current position is 17324.03 tonnes.

10.391 billion yuan! Jing'ao plans to expand the integrated production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and components] according to the announcement issued by Jingao Science and Technology on September 15, the company plans to invest 10.391 billion yuan to expand the integrated production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries, modules and so on.

[Baotou promotes the upgrading of the rare earth industry] in recent years, Baotou City has made full use of the advantages of rare earth resources and industrial foundation to vigorously promote the rare earth industry to become bigger, better and stronger. In the high-purity rare earth metal base in the core area of the Inner Mongolia rare Earth New Materials Industrial Park, three of the first five rare earth metal enterprises have been in trial production, and the remaining two are under intense construction and are expected to be completed by the end of this year. After all the projects in the park are put into production, the production capacity of rare earth metals will reach 30,000 tons, making it the largest rare earth metal production base in China, which is of great significance to the file upgrading of our city's rare earth industry.

[rare earth resources in Longgonro, Angola increased to 4.47 million tons] Pensana rare earth company (Pensana Rare Earths) updated the resources of its Longgonro (Longonjo) rare earth project in Angola. After the recent 8000 meters of intensive drilling, the ore resources of the Longgonuo rare earth project have risen to 313 million tons, with a rare earth oxide grade of 1.43%, of which the praseodymium and neodymium content is 0.32%, that is, the rare earth oxide content is 4.47 million tons. Among them, praseodymium and neodymium metal is 990000 tons. Compared with the resources announced last time, the amount of praseodymium-neodymium metal increased by 35%. 70% of the resources have been upgraded to the proven and presumed level.

[blast furnace fire accident in a steel plant in Tangshan] A fire accident occurred in a 1080m ³blast furnace of DH Steel in Tangshan on the morning of September 16th. It is reported that the failure of its gravity dedusting part caused an accident, and there were no casualties for the time being. Since the beginning of this week, market sentiment has weakened, the news triggered market expectations for blast furnace maintenance, negative raw materials, mineral prices led the decline.

[Chile launches anti-dumping investigation against Chinese steel bars] on September 11, the Chilean National Import Price distortion investigation Commission issued an anti-dumping investigation against steel rods originally produced in China used to manufacture conventional grinding balls less than 4 inches in diameter, upon the application of the Chilean company Compa â í a Sider ú rgica Huachipato S.A., Chile has launched an anti-dumping investigation against steel rods originally produced in China for the manufacture of conventional grinding balls with a diameter of less than 4 inches.

Macro focus

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, state president, and chairman of the Central military Commission, recently gave important instructions on doing a good job in the United front work of the private economy in the new era. since the reform and opening up, especially since the 18th CPC National Congress, the United front work of the private economy has been continuously strengthened and improved, playing an important role in serving the central work of the party and the state. The non-public economy is an important part of the socialist market economy, and it is of great significance to promote the healthy development of the non-public economy and the healthy growth of people in the non-public economy. Xi Jinping stressed: it is necessary to adhere to the "two unwavering" and regard it as an important task to unite and guide people in the private economy.

[World Health Organization (WHO): global cumulative number of novel coronavirus confirmed cases reached 29444198] according to the latest data from World Health Organization (WHO) 's website, as of 16:36 (22:36) central European time on the 16th, the number of global confirmed cases increased by 252680 over the previous day to 29444198, and the number of deaths increased by 4520 to 931321.

[OECD Chief Economist: the world is experiencing its biggest recession since World War II] the world is experiencing its biggest recession since World War II, said Laurence Boehner, chief economist of the OECD. China, on the other hand, has benefited from increased government investment in infrastructure and related policy support, which has led to a rapid economic recovery. Boehner also said that at present, the biggest problem in the global economy is uncertainty, of which the biggest factor is the COVID-19 epidemic. Boehner called on governments to establish continuous, lasting and effective economic recovery strategies to continue fiscal, monetary and structural policies to support consumers and businesses, while strengthening global cooperation and restoring confidence is the key to accelerating the recovery of the world economy.

[more than 6.62 million new cases confirmed by COVID-19 in the United States] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 17:30 US Eastern time on the 16th (5:30 on the 17th), the cumulative number of cases confirmed by COVID-19 in the United States reached 6621523, with a total of 196485 deaths. In the past 24 hours, there have been 26047 new confirmed cases and 984 new deaths in the United States.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell: in a tight job market, wages will rise, the labor force participation rate will rise, and inflation is within the target framework. It is believed that a fairly low unemployment rate can be achieved while avoiding a worrying surge in inflation. Employment maximization needs to pay attention to many indicators, as well as whether the job market environment is in line with our judgment.

Terminal information

[China Automobile Association: the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased 14.8% in August compared with the same period last year] on September 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that automobile production and sales increased steadily in August this year. The added value of the automobile industry still maintained a momentum of rapid growth compared with the same period last year. In August, the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 14.8 percent over the same period last year, which was 9.2 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises above the national scale in the same period, and continued to be the main driving force for industrial growth. From January to August, the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 2.8 percent over the same period last year, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of January-July, and 2.4 percentage points higher than the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises nationwide in the same period.

Tesla's "Battery Day" big guess: what big tricks Musk will use to shock the world? It has been confirmed that Tesla will release financial data on the same day, as well as the status and future plans of superfactories in Shanghai and Berlin, but these are clearly not what Iron Man calls "exciting events." What really excites the market is the battery itself: can Tesla launch the promise of a million-mile battery? Can the energy density of the battery be greatly increased by silicon nanowire technology or dry electrode technology? Or is it possible to reduce the cost of battery production through the Roadrunner project? "View details

[Tesla is building the world's largest supercharging station] Tesla is building a new large charging station in California. According to the form submitted by Tesla to the planning department, the supercharging station will have 56 charging piles, which will become Tesla's largest supercharging station in the world. "View details

[Xi'an is soliciting opinions on gradually relaxing vehicle traffic restrictions] recently, the Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Commerce drafted the "detailed rules for the implementation of Xi'an on promoting Market consumption and actively responding to the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic situation (draft for soliciting opinions)" to solicit opinions from the public. It is proposed to extend the policy of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles and exemption from purchase tax until the end of 2022, increase the replacement of new energy buses, and abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of second-hand vehicles. At the same time, relax the vehicle traffic restrictions, in the case of the implementation of the sixth national emissions, gradually reduce the number of urban vehicle traffic restrictions, and implement traffic restrictions in different periods and regions. In addition, it also includes encouraging new models of automobile sales and strengthening financial support for automobile consumption.

[Sichuan: more than 200000 charging piles for new energy vehicles built in 3 years] A few days ago, the General Office of the Sichuan Provincial people's Government issued the Sichuan Provincial Action Plan for accelerating the Construction of New Infrastructure (2020-2022) (hereinafter referred to as "the plan"). It is clearly proposed to "speed up the construction of a new infrastructure system for the future". Among them, increasing the construction of new energy vehicle charging piles and carrying out vehicle-road coordination pilot demonstration are also mentioned. Sichuan may further speed up in new energy vehicles and intelligent network connection. "View details

Related market

[IEA cut its 2020 oil production forecast again to 91.7 million b / d] the International Energy Agency ((IEA)) on Tuesday lowered its oil demand forecast for 2020, citing caution about the pace of economic recovery brought about by the pandemic.

[international Energy Agency: July OECD oil inventory record] crude oil reserves in developed countries hit an all-time high in July, indicating that demand has weakened due to the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, the International Energy Agency ((International Energy Agency)) said on Tuesday.

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