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[SMM Metal Breakfast] how big is the impact on the copper supply side in Chile to extend the state of national disaster * the accelerated decline in zinc stocks has boosted the rebound in zinc prices
Sep 15,2020 07:20CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] US stocks rose across the board * what is the impact on the copper supply side of Chile to extend the state of national disaster * China's scrap copper imports will be reduced by 50% this year * India's Birla copper refinery will be overhauled for one month * the last futures exchange plans to launch international copper futures in the fourth quarter of last year * aluminum prices stabilize the price of cooked aluminum to maintain stability * Electrolytic aluminum to remove storage in the South China Sea and Gongyi region * Zinc stocks accelerate the rebound in zinc prices * August The output of ternary materials in China increased by 27% compared with the same period last year * the price difference between hot and cold reached the highest level in nearly 3 years * novel coronavirus epidemic made the Zambian mining sector even worse.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight quotation] the lead of the outer disk metal rose 1.72%. Gold recorded the biggest increase this month.

[macro outlook] Today, focus on the monthly rate of US industrial output in August

Today's focus

Sources said the OPEC + September meeting is unlikely to advocate further cuts in oil production.

Despite the fall in oil prices, allies such as Opec and Russia are unlikely to announce further restrictions on oil production this week and will extend production cuts in countries such as Iraq and Nigeria to make up for previous excess production, according to sources. OPEC and its allies have been cutting production since May to support oil prices after the outbreak led to a sharp drop in global demand. In the latest round of production cuts, OPEC cut production by 7.7 million b / d, or about 8 per cent of global demand, and asked Iraq and other countries to cut production in September to compensate for excess production in May-July. Three OPEC + sources said OPEC + could extend the compensation period to October and November to urge Iraq and other countries to meet production reduction targets. A meeting of OPEC's ministerial watchdog committee with non-OPEC oil producers is also unlikely to recommend a change in production targets, although Brent crude futures have fallen below $40 a barrel, according to five people familiar with the matter.

Wang Fenghai: the Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to launch international copper futures in the fourth quarter. Wang Fenghai, general manager of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, said on the 14th that the trading volume and positions of crude oil futures have increased steadily since the listing of crude oil futures. In the next step, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will further open wider to the outside world, comprehensively plan and orderly promote the listing of natural gas and oil products, accelerate the listing of crude oil futures options and crude oil futures ETF, and enrich risk management tools. In the next quarter, the Futures Exchange plans to launch international copper futures, and new varieties, including shipping index futures, are also under study.

[SMM summary review: Chile, the number one copper producer, extended the state of national disaster for another 90 days.) although the state of emergency in Chile has been repeatedly extended, Chile's copper mountain production was largely unaffected during the year, with Chile's cumulative copper production rising 1.86% to 3.3092 million tons from January to July compared with the same period last year. Codelco has previously said that the number of Covid-2019 infections in its mines has been greatly reduced and that copper production is less likely to be disrupted by the epidemic in the future, but the company's current mode of operation to prevent virus infection will continue for a year. Therefore, SMM believes that the extension of the state of emergency in Chile basically has no impact on the production or shipment of copper mines, and that the mining industry as a pillar of the Chilean economy will be effectively guaranteed. "View details

[China Nonferrous Metals Association Recycling Branch: 50 per cent reduction in scrap Copper imports this year] Wang Jiwei, vice chairman of (CMRA) of the recycled Metals Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association, said at the China International Copper Forum on Friday that China's scrap copper imports fell by 50 per cent this year. China, the world's largest metal consumer, imported 1.49 million tons of scrap copper in 2019. To date, China has approved a total of 743140 tons of scrap copper. "View details

[SMM: aluminum price stabilizes mature aluminum price maintains stable raw aluminum price continues to rise] in terms of waste aluminum prices, cooked aluminum prices maintain stability. Raw aluminum prices due to better demand, and for the later period of concern about the shortage of waste aluminum, domestic raw aluminum prices continue to rise, the current coastal areas raw aluminum prices rise more significantly, different regions have 100,000,200 yuan / ton increase, inland raw aluminum prices are relatively stable, but its follow-up may also exist. In addition, more recycled aluminum enterprises in the southern region reported lower inventory, in the case of suppliers hesitating to sell bullish, there is also a significant increase in the purchase price of 100,200 yuan / ton. "View details

[SMM data: the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the South China Sea and Gongyi area decreased by 15000 tons to 749000 tons compared with the previous week.] on September 14, when the South China Sea and Gongyi area went to the warehouse, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 15000 tons to 749000 tons compared with the previous week. "View details

[SMM data: Sept. 14 SMM Seven Zinc Ingot Social inventory] according to SMM, as of Monday, SMM Seven Zinc Ingot inventory totaled 154000 tons, down 4800 tons from last Friday and 17200 tons from last Monday. "View details

[SMM analysis: accelerated decline in zinc stocks boosts zinc prices rebound consumption will still drive depots during the peak season] on the supply side, although the current arrival of imported zinc has increased, smelter output has also increased month-on-month, but the short-term demand is greater, and the proportion of direct hair downstream of superimposed refineries has increased, resulting in a decline in inventory. On the demand side, zinc prices were once high and fell sharply in early September, and the decline in prices stimulated downstream replenishment demand, leading to a rapid decline in inventories. On the whole, ten peak seasons of gold, silver and silver are expected, and it is expected that consumption in the peak season in September will still drive to the treasury, providing strong support for zinc prices. "View details

[UK benchmark Mining Intelligence: battery nickel demand will rise to 1.4 million tons by 2030] Nickel is used to store energy in batteries as governments, businesses and consumers seek to reduce toxic gas emissions from fossil fuel vehicles. Battery nickel demand is expected to surge in the next few years. Demand for nickel batteries will rise from about 139000 tonnes this year (6 per cent of total nickel demand) to 1.4 million tonnes (30 per cent of total nickel demand) in 2030 as sales of electric vehicles soar, according to forecasts from the UK's benchmark mining intelligence company.

[the price of silicon without oxygen is weak and stable] yesterday, the price of silicon of all brands was basically stable, and the price of silicon without oxygen in East China was around 10600 yuan / ton. The silicon factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing and other unoxygenated silicon producing areas can ship goods, and the ex-factory price is mostly around 10000 yuan / ton, and the focus of the transaction is slightly lower than in the previous period. On the one hand, after the peak of concentrated hoarding, buyers are mainly purchasing with rigid demand, and the spot on the market increases; on the other hand, some traders are pessimistic about the future, so they are lower than silicon factories to deal with inventory, pulling down mainstream prices.

[SMM: August China's production of ternary materials increased by 27% compared with the same period last year] in August 2020, China's output of ternary materials increased by 19800 tons, up 6.6% from the previous month and 27% from the same period last year. Orders in the power market increased this month, of which the demand for high nickel basically returned to the level of the first quarter, mainly for the increase in overseas demand. The small power market gradually reduced in August, mainly because most battery companies have finished purchasing orders before October, and the follow-up market is unstable and the procurement volume has declined slightly. High nickel orders continued to rise in September, with good feedback from the power market. "View details

[SMM data: statistics on China's mobile phone shipments in August 2020] in August 2020, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 26.907 million units, down 12.9% from January to August last year. The total domestic mobile phone market shipments totaled 202 million units, down 19.5% from the same period last year. "View details

[SMM hot roll: cold rolling is gone with the wind! The price difference between hot and cold has reached a new high in nearly 3 years. According to SMM statistics, the price gap between hot and cold markets in eastern and southern China has expanded sharply since the end of August, soaring to more than 800yuan / ton at one point. As of today, the price difference between hot and cold in Shanghai is about 850 yuan per ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 830 tons. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[the novel coronavirus epidemic worsens the Zambian mining sector] Michael Phiri, a Zambian tax partner at KPMG, said that although the epidemic had a "negative and direct" impact on the gem industry, the impact of the copper mining industry was even greater. Increased demand has boosted international copper prices, which are currently trading at about $6750 a tonne. However, the country's smelting capacity has been exhausted, which, although it began before the novel coronavirus pandemic, has been exacerbated by the epidemic. "View details

[India's Birla copper smelter will be overhauled for one month] according to SMM, Birla Copper, India's largest copper smelter, will overhaul a production line for a period of one month, with a total capacity of 400000 tons per year.

[North American primary aluminum production increased 4.8% in August 2020 compared with the same period last year] US primary aluminum production continued to decline affected by Alcoa Intalco Aluminium Plant production reduction in August, while Canadian primary aluminum production continued to grow driven by resumption of production. Overall, North American primary aluminium production rose 1.2 per cent to 351000 tonnes in August from a month earlier, up 4.8 per cent from a year earlier. According to the latest data from the American Aluminium Association, US primary aluminum production in August 2020 was 81314 tons, down 13.6 per cent from the same period last year and 2.3 per cent from the previous month. The monthly daily output was 2623 tons, down from 2685 tons in July. Us primary aluminium production totaled 722800 tons from January to August, down 4.5 per cent from a year earlier. It is reported that the shutdown of 230000 tons of remaining production capacity of Alcoa Intalco aluminum plant has been completed.

[Guangxi Huacheng 2 million ton alumina project has been trial-produced] on September 10th, the production process of the 2 million-ton alumina project (Fangchenggang project of Guangxi Ecological Aluminum Industrial Base) of Guangxi Huacheng New Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Chinalco Group, has been opened and trial-produced. at present, the production processes are operating normally. In the next step, the enterprise will debug and optimize the equipment to ensure that the project can successfully achieve the goal of reaching production and exceeding production. It is reported that the 2 million-ton alumina project in Huacheng, Guangxi, started in October 2018, using low-temperature Bayer process to build two alumina production lines with an annual output of 1 million tons, supporting heating and other auxiliary facilities, with a total investment of 5.92 billion yuan.

[camel shares: the company's supporting Dongfeng Nissan 48V start-stop product was successfully mass produced in April this year.] recently, Camel said that with regard to the lithium power business, the company's supporting Dongfeng Nissan 48V start-stop product was successfully mass produced in April this year. In addition, 12V business, EV platform business and energy storage business are also being promoted; the company cooperates with Wuhan University of Technology to complete the key special research and development tasks of the incremental fuel cell system of the Provincial Department of Science and Technology and pass the acceptance.

[completion of acceptance of Tian Shengfu compound illegal disassembly of waste lead Battery in Yuquan Town Industrial Park of Jiayuguan City] A few days ago, Jiayuguan City Ecological Environment Bureau organized an acceptance meeting of Tian Shengfu Courtyard of Yuquan Town Industrial Park in Jiayuguan City for illegal disassembly of waste lead battery disposal project. The relevant responsible persons of the Municipal Public Security Bureau, the Municipal Procuratorate, the Municipal people's Court, the Municipal Audit Bureau, the Jiayuguan Ecological Environment Monitoring Center, and the disposal unit Anhui Huabing Renewable Resources Technology Co., Ltd., the person in charge of the site inspection unit Gansu Youlian testing Technical Service Co., Ltd., Tian Shengfu Courtyard land renters and invited experts participated in the acceptance.

[long-term Lithium Science Innovation Board IPO meeting on September 14] after queuing for more than four months, Hunan long-term Lithium Science Co., Ltd. will usher in Science and Technology Innovation Board's big exam on September 14. It is understood that long-term Lithium is a high-tech enterprise mainly engaged in the research, development, production and sales of cathode materials for high-efficiency batteries. Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO was accepted on May 6 this year, and then entered the inquiry stage on June 2.

[solvent DMC is difficult to find later prices continue to rise] September 14, Shandong Shi Dasheng Huadian pool-level DMC prices increased by 200 yuan, the same day quoted price of 11000 yuan / ton, reaching an all-time high. Electrolyte manufacturers generally feedback that the supply of solvent DMC is difficult to obtain, and the supply in the field is tight. At present, there is only one manufacturer of Shi Da Shenghua. The increase in lithium battery scheduling will continue to drive the demand for battery-level DMC, and the price will continue to rise in the future.

The world's largest silver ETF-iShares Silver Trust position decreased by 28.95 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position is 17292.19 tons.

[Brazil's Companhia do Vale do Rio Doce paid 250 million reais for dam break] Brazilian courts approved the agreement reached between the Attorney General's Office and Vale on September 14. The agreement stipulates that Vale, the responsible party, will have to pay 150 million reais (194 million yuan) to seven national parks in Minas Gerais state where the accident occurred, as a result of the biggest environmental tragedy in the country's history caused by the dam break in 2019. Another 100 million reais (130 million yuan) is used to clean up environmental pollution caused by the dam break in the state.

[announcement of domestic futures price adjustment for steel pipe and wire rod products of Baosteel shares in October 2020] according to the study and decision, the futures sales prices of steel pipe, bar and wire products of Baosteel shares in October 2020 are adjusted as follows (except for special instructions, the following prices are tax-free): first, billet, bar 1, this product: alloy die steel remains unchanged, carbon die steel is increased by 150 yuan / ton; Round steel and alloy round steel for automobiles and forgings will be increased by 100 yuan per ton and 200 yuan per ton respectively. 2. Baote long structural steel bar: each variety is increased by 177 yuan / ton. 3. Baote long stainless steel bar: 300 series increases 885 yuan / ton, 400 series increases 177 yuan / ton. Wire rod 1, main wire: spring steel, cold heading steel up to 100 yuan / ton, bearing steel, special steel wire up to 200 yuan / ton. 2. Baote long structural steel wire: the product that overlaps with the wire rod of this part refers to the wire rod of this part, and the non-overlapping product is increased by 100 yuan / ton. 3. Baote long stainless steel wire: 300 series increases 885 yuan / ton, 400 series increases 177 yuan / ton. 4. Castle Peak wire: cord products are increased by 150 yuan / ton, and other varieties are increased by 100 yuan / ton.

Macro focus

[banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: stable Operation and risk Control of the Banking and Insurance Industry] the relevant responsible person of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission introduced at the press briefing of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on September 14 that the current banking and insurance industry is running smoothly and the risk is controllable, and the main business and regulatory indicators are in a reasonable range. After continuous rectification, the problem of major violations of laws and regulations in the industry has been basically eliminated, the bubble tendency of real estate finance has been effectively curbed, and the risks in the field of network lending have continued to converge. In the next step, the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission will continue to innovate the ways and means of corporate governance supervision and improve the ability and level of corporate governance supervision.

[World Health Organization (WHO): global novel coronavirus confirmed cases exceed 28.91 million] according to real-time statistics of the World Health Organization, as of 15:28 (21:28) on September 14, central European time, the global report of COVID-19 's confirmed cases increased by 267257 over the previous day, and the number of global confirmed cases exceeded 28.91 million, reaching 28918900. Globally, the number of reported deaths exceeded 920000, reaching 922252, an increase of 4771 over the previous day.

[more than 6.54 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States] according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 18:00 on September 14 (6: 00 on the 15th), the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States had reached 6545948, with a total of 194367 deaths.

Us Treasury Secretary Nuchin: willing to negotiate the stimulus package without any conditions.

Market news: there was a second missile attack in Baghdad, targeting the outskirts of the US embassy in the center of the city. The US embassy in Baghdad has launched an air defense system in the Green Zone following reports of rocket attacks in the Baghdad area.

Overnight shibor was 1.6070%, up 14.30bp. 7-day shibor was 2.1610%, down 0.10 basis points. In three months, shibor was 2.6970%, rising and falling flat.

Terminal information

[Tesla launched battery recycling service Musk said 50, 000 yuan to replace new batteries] recently, Tesla officially announced that he plans to launch the battery recycling service, and that the recovered lithium-ion battery packs will be disposed of and recycled by designated factories. Promise that the waste batteries will not be disposed of in landfills. Prior to this, Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly said that Tesla's power battery life is about 300000-500000 km. If it needs to be replaced, the battery price varies according to different models, ranging from $3000 to $7000.

China Construction Machinery Industry Association: in August, the 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of 20939 excavators of various types, an increase of 51.3% over the same period last year. Domestic excavator sales have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% for five consecutive months. Total sales in the first eight months of this year accounted for 89.3% of total sales in 2019.

[Leyou New Energy Phase I project completed this month with a production capacity of 5000 tons] recently, the completion ceremony of Leyou New Energy Materials (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. with a total investment of 1 billion US dollars was held in Wuxi High-tech Zone. Leyou New Energy, founded on June 29th, 2018, is a new company jointly invested by LG Chemical and Huayou Cobalt. The production capacity of the project is planned to be 100000 tons, with an annual output value of 20 billion yuan. The first phase of the completed project can be used to produce power batteries for 600000 high-performance new energy vehicles with a charging mileage of 320km. At present, the construction of the project is smooth, and it is planned to start mass production with a capacity of 5000 tons this month, and it is expected to achieve the target of 45000 tons in the third quarter of next year. "View details

[founder Motor reached a framework agreement with Weilai subordinate companies] recently, Zhejiang founder Motor Co., Ltd. and Weiran (Nanjing) Power Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Weilai Automobile, reached a framework agreement on founder Motor to provide drive motor components of a project to Weiran Power at a certain price. The above agreement stipulates that the product provided by the company to Weiran Power is the company's first product with flat wire motor winding type, which has different improvements in power density and motor efficiency compared with the existing products. At the same time, the project is also one of the company's annual production of 350000 new energy-driven motors and electric drive integration projects. "View details

[brilliance BMW Power Battery Center Phase II was officially completed and put into production] A few days ago, brilliance BMW Power Battery Center Phase II was officially completed and put into production, becoming the first production base for BMW Group to produce BMW fifth-generation power batteries in the world. The new power battery system will be the first to be installed on the BMW iX3. Brilliance BMW Power Battery Center, which opened in 2017, is BMW's first battery center with full battery equipment outside Germany. Three years after its opening, the second phase, which is more technologically advanced, has been completed and put into production today, producing fifth-generation power batteries and doubling its production capacity. "View details

[350000 pure electric vehicles have been promoted in Beijing.] by the end of August 2020, Beijing had promoted more than 350000 pure electric vehicles, including 70600 in the public domain (including 12500 buses, 4500 sanitation vehicles and 9900 taxis), accounting for about 10 per cent of the country's total, according to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment.

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