Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / [SMM Metal Breakfast] demand for aluminum in the lower reaches of the peak season increases slowly * the news of cobalt collection and storage may delay the decline of cobalt prices * the domestic rare earth market continued to be under pressure last week.
[SMM Metal Breakfast] demand for aluminum in the lower reaches of the peak season increases slowly * the news of cobalt collection and storage may delay the decline of cobalt prices * the domestic rare earth market continued to be under pressure last week.
Sep 14,2020 07:42CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] inventories in the national mainstream copper market declined month-on-month last week * India plans to restrict copper imports from China, Aluminum * recycled aluminum alloy prices enter the uplink channel * start-up rate of aluminum profiles increases steadily in August * follow-up lead price trend from the perspective of waste battery recycling * galvanized peak season is expected * recent nickel price shock consolidation is expected * stainless steel is expected to have a limited decline in the later period * cobalt collection and storage news is implemented or slow down the process of cobalt price decline * the route of high nickel and low cobalt is still the future development trend * the domestic rare earth market continued last week. Short-term gold prices are intertwined * Mining production in South Africa fell 9.1% in July compared with the same period last year.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[market on Friday] Metal Zinc surged 3.11% on Friday, crude oil hit a three-month low

Today's focus

[SMM data: national mainstream copper market inventories fell 4400 tons last week.] as of last Friday, SMM national mainstream copper regional market inventories totaled 323900 tons, down 4400 tons from last week. Among them, copper stocks in Shanghai fell by 10800 tons to 211000 tons from the previous month; copper inventories in Jiangsu increased by 2000 tons to 30700 tons; and copper inventories in Guangdong increased by 4400 tons to 82200 tons. "View details

[SMM analysis: the price of recycled alloys enters the uplink channel with both supply and demand] in August, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry rose to 53.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The unexpected increase in construction compared with the previous month is due, on the one hand, to the closure of imported aluminum alloy windows in early August, reducing the impact of imported aluminum alloy ingots and increasing the market share of domestic sources; second, due to the shortening of the start time affected by the epidemic this year, the off-season is not too light. Due to the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Jinjiu Silver Ten", the market share of import sources has decreased. It is expected that the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry will continue to increase in July, and the increase will depend on the recovery of demand, growing to about 55%. "View details

[SMM analysis: the summer off-season is not weak. The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased steadily in August.] according to SMM research, the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises was around 62.68% in August, slightly higher than in July. According to the size of enterprises, the operating rate of large enterprises is 65.14%, that of medium-sized enterprises is 56.11%, and that of small enterprises is 43.74%. In August, the start-up rate of enterprises of all sizes increased or decreased, of which the start-up rate of large-scale enterprises increased slightly by about 1%. The start-up rate of medium-sized enterprises dropped slightly, and the start-up rate of small enterprises decreased by about 4%, and the start-up of enterprises of all sizes was better than that of the same period last year. According to the type of enterprises, the operating rate of industrial profile enterprises is 64.61%, an increase of more than 2% from the previous month, and the average operating rate of construction profile enterprises is 62.32%, slightly higher than the previous year. The operating rate of construction and industrial profiles is also on the rise over the same period last year. "View details

[SMM aluminum downstream weekly survey: peak season aluminum downstream demand slowly increase automobile replacement of real estate demand growth bright spot] last week, aluminum downstream enterprises started a slight increase of 0.3%. Compared with the week before last week, the situation of aluminum downstream enterprises has not changed much. Order recovery is relatively fast still aluminum plate, strip and foil, primary, recycled alloy enterprises, related orders mainly from automotive, construction, electronics, packaging and other aspects, aluminum profile and cable enterprises did not see a significant increase in orders, relatively pessimistic. The demand for building materials is mainly affected by the policy level. The tightening of real estate regulation and the lower-than-expected progress of some infrastructure projects have reduced the number of new orders for building materials enterprises, but they still maintain a relatively high operating rate due to the accumulation of orders in the early stage. In terms of cables, there is still no volume in the national network bidding, and there is uncertainty about the growth of demand. "View details

[SMM analysis: follow-up lead price trend from the perspective of waste battery recycling] in September, expectations of overseas economic recovery were not fulfilled, and lead stocks further accumulated during the period. As of September 10, LME lead stocks reached 131750 tons, an increase of 13800 tons over the same period last month. Domestic fundamentals, consumption performance is general, lead ingots have accumulated stock, lead prices have plummeted, falling below 15500 and 15000 levels one after another. "View details

[SMM analysis: the peak galvanizing season is expected to be affected by Daqiuzhuang in September or the same as in August] according to the enterprise's production scheduling plan, the galvanizing operation rate is expected to be 99.89% in September, down 0.04% from the previous month. Mainly due to environmental rectification and reform in North China, consumption in Tianjin is affected, among which the impact of large enterprises is relatively small, but small and medium-sized enterprises need to reduce production to meet environmental standards, which is expected to affect about half a month. In other areas, under the production of terminal projects one after another, it is expected that there will be an increase in order consumption. "View details

[SMM view: Shanghai Nickel V-shaped recovery part of the decline is expected to be dominated by recent nickel price volatility consolidation] SMM believes that macro factors have triggered market panic, affecting not only safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, but also basic metals. From a fundamental point of view, the peak of stainless steel prices and increased profit pressure are the factors restricting the upward rise of nickel prices, but they are not the decisive factors in the near future. spot nickel prices are strong, and nickel pig iron has little room to fall. There is still a gap between the supply and demand of primary nickel in the third quarter, so the decline in nickel prices may not be a long-term trend. at present, macro sentiment and bears have the upper hand, making it difficult for nickel prices to rebound quickly. It is expected that the near-term nickel price in the current position near the shock consolidation is mainly, or can look forward to later repair. "View details

[SMM analysis: stainless steel contract stabilized and expected a limited decline in the later period] SMM believes that stainless steel has fallen for two consecutive weeks, down nearly 1300 yuan / ton, on the one hand, because the previous stainless steel price is at a higher level, the market is expected to rise is limited, the early capital profit is closed, on the other hand, macro sentiment forms pressure on stainless steel. However, at present, the first line of 14100 yuan / ton is close to the current production cost of stainless steel raw materials, and the space to fall under the support of the cost is limited, and after the spot market of stainless steel follows the price adjustment of steel mills, the price is weak and stable, and the decline of stainless steel contract is expected to be limited in the later stage. Follow-up attention to the support of 14000 yuan / ton under stainless steel. "View details

[SMM analysis: cobalt purchase and storage news to implement or delay the decline of cobalt prices] SMM believes that the domestic spot price of electrolytic cobalt may rise slightly to 27.5-285000 yuan / ton in the short term. After rapid digestion of the market, the demand for electrolytic cobalt downstream is low. Although the marginal demand for downstream power demand for battery materials is still increasing, the inventory of the battery factory is relatively high in the fourth quarter, and the downstream 3C end is gradually entering the procurement off-season. The downward trend of cobalt prices is still obvious, but the price center is higher than the unstocked expectations. SMM will continue to closely monitor the collection process and report it in a timely manner. "View details

[SMM analysis: Ningde era high nickel demand next year can reach 33GWh high nickel low cobalt route is still the future development trend] Ningde era did not give up the high nickel route, focusing on the development of Sanyuan 811 and high voltage 523 NCM811 CTP in 2020. At present, the energy density of nickel 55 ternary single crystal high voltage material battery can achieve 230wg/kg (nickel 83 ternary is 240wh/kg), and the battery cost is reduced by 15% by CTP. With the recovery of domestic and overseas markets, CATL's demand for ternary materials rose, returning to first-quarter levels in August, and high nickel orders will continue to rise from September to December this year. "View details

[SMM Analysis: last week the domestic rare earth market continued to be under pressure] Last week, the domestic rare earth market continued to be under pressure, the prices of mainstream rare earth products were still falling, the listing prices of rare earths in the north turned downward from the previous month, and the market as a whole was still in a period of consolidation. "View details

[SMM special topic: short-term gold price long-term interweaving industry insiders are still optimistic about the long-term trend) since mid-August, the international gold price trend has begun to stabilize, on the one hand, Russian President Putin announced in early August that Russia's first novel coronavirus vaccine had been approved by the Ministry of Health and the failure of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States at that time triggered a sharp fall in precious metals. On the other hand, the US dollar continued to decline, coupled with the number of outbreaks in the United States, Europe, India and other countries continued to hit record highs to support gold prices. After the global gold price surged to a multi-year high in early August and then fell back short-term, the futures price for nearly a month has hovered between $1900 and $2000 an ounce. Even in the event of a long-short standoff, the market still has rising expectations for precious metals. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[tropical Storm Sally formed BHP Billiton and others began to evacuate in the Gulf of Mexico] according to the latest news from foreign media, oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico evacuated offshore facilities on Saturday because the tropical storm brewing off the coast of Florida is expected to escalate into a hurricane and threaten this golden oil region. Chevron (Chevron Corp) and Murphy Oil Company (Murphy Oil Corp) began evacuating workers from offshore oil and gas platforms on Saturday. Royal Dutch Shell, BHP Billiton, BP and Hess said they were monitoring the storm and were prepared to take action if necessary. "View details

[a gold mine collapse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may kill at least 50 people] A gold mine near Kamitujia in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed on the afternoon of September 11, local time, killing at least 50 people. It is reported that many mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that are not regulated by law are operated by bare hands, so similar accidents occur frequently, killing dozens of people every year.

[industry figures: copper processing fees are expected to fall to their lowest level in 10 years next year] traders and analysts say benchmark processing costs for copper concentrates are likely to fall for the sixth consecutive year next year and fall to their lowest level since 2011 of about $60 a tonne. this is due to a rebound in demand for refined copper, although supply is expected to recover. Miners pay a processing and refining fee (TC/RCs) to the smelter to process the copper concentrate into refined copper, thus offsetting the cost of the ore itself. The cost usually falls when the supply of copper concentrate is tight and smelters have to accept lower fees to obtain raw materials. Colin Hamilton, general manager of commodities research at BMO, said processing and refining fees for next year would be $60 per tonne and 6 cents per pound, and "slightly downward". In 2020, the benchmark is set at $62 per ton and 6.2 cents per pound.

[construction of Kakoula copper mine in Democratic Congo is progressing smoothly] Canadian mining company (Ivanhoe Mines) announced on Tuesday that an independent final feasibility study confirmed that its Kakoula (Kakula) project assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could become the second largest copper mine in the world. "View details

[India plans to restrict imports of copper and aluminum from China] India is planning to tighten regulation of copper and aluminum imports while formulating policies to curb exports from China and other Asian countries to protect domestic producers, Indian officials said. Government sources said officials in New Delhi were expected to soon require importers to register with the authorities, a first step towards tightening controls that would require separate shipments of two metals to apply for permits.

[Australian Metro Mining increased bauxite shipments in August] (Metro Mining Limited) of Australia Metro Mining Co., Ltd. announced its production and sales results for August 2020 on September 8th. Although Metro Mining began to decline in August in preparation for the suspension of production at the Hill bauxite mine (Bauxite Hills) during the rainy season in 2020, freight costs exceeded budget and returned to pre-July levels. The mine's operating results this year show that the Hill Bauxite Mine can easily operate with an annual capacity of 4 million tons with existing plants and equipment.

[Canada will start levying 3.6 billion retaliatory tariffs on the United States next week.] according to Canadian media reports on September 12, the Canadian government will respond to the Trump administration's move to impose tariffs on Canadian aluminum again, with the total amount of retaliatory taxes on aluminum tariffs in the United States reaching 3.6 billion. A list of specific tariff reversals will be released soon. Canadian Ambassador to the United States Kersten Hillman said in an interview on Friday that countermeasures are about to be implemented and will remain in effect until the United States removes tariffs on Canada. The preliminary counter-list includes many products from swing states in the United States. There are predictions that the Trump administration may lower tariffs before the election.

[manganese X Energy Company: optimizing the manganese extraction process for EV and energy storage advanced battery materials] recently, Manganese X Energy Company (Manganese X Energy) said that it has completed the first stage of production using mineral materials, with a purity of more than 99.95% manganese sulfate and low contents of alkali and alkali metals. This is a revolutionary achievement that demonstrates the resources it can meet electric vehicles and other requirements. "View details

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position is down 4.96t from the previous day, and the current position is 1248 tonnes. The world's largest silver ETF-iShares Silver Trust position decreased by 52.11 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position is 17321.14 tons.

[South Africa's mining production fell 9.1 per cent in July from a year earlier] South Africa's mining production fell 9.1 per cent in July from a year earlier, with the biggest negative contribution being other non-metallic minerals and chromium ores. Other non-metallic minerals fell by-2.8 percentage points, total production decreased by 44.9%, and chromium ore decreased by 32.5%, or-1.4%. (Nedbank), a bank of Ned, expects mining to remain weak for the rest of the time, but the lock-up level is likely to be much higher than when mining plummeted by 51.3 per cent in May.

[here comes the cobalt-free battery! It is learned that recently, Honeycomb Energy successfully completed the first test sample car of cobalt-free battery, and officially carried out road testing. It is reported that the cobalt-free battery loaded for the first time is the 115Ah product launched by Honeycomb Energy at the online press conference on May 18, with an energy density ≥ 235 Whhand kg and 2500 cycles; this loading matches the VDA355 module. "View details

[the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. Brazilian steel prices have risen by about 20% since June] at the end of the epidemic, Brazilian steel demand was stronger than expected, coupled with the large-scale temporary closure of crude steel production capacity. The long-lasting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed prices up by a total of about 20% since June. After a sharp drop in apparent steel consumption as a result of the epidemic, major Brazilian steelmakers are boldly predicting that demand will shrink by at least 30 per cent this year. "View details

[China Iron and Steel Association: social inventory Monitoring of Steel in early September 2020] in early September, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 20 cities was 12.43 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 0.6% over the previous decade, and a decrease of 7.78 million tons or 38.5% from the peak in early March. Inventory increased by 5.61 million tons or 82.3% over the beginning of the year.

Macro focus

[Xiao Gang: building China's overseas Investment Rights and interests Protection system] Xiao Gang, a senior researcher of CF40, attended the first China Financial 40-member "Qujiang Forum" and issued the Qujiang report "Building China's overseas Investment Rights and interests Protection system". Xiao Gang said that with the continuous expansion of the scale of China's foreign investment, the importance and urgency of protecting the rights and interests of overseas investment has become increasingly prominent. In recent years, China's overseas investment protection work has achieved remarkable results. at the same time, it should also be noted that the integrity, systematicness and cooperation of China's overseas investment rights and interests protection system is not enough. it can not fully adapt to the new situation of the development of China's foreign investment at present and in the future.

Autumn and winter is the season of high incidence of respiratory diseases. According to the latest guidelines of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, there are three kinds of influenza vaccines approved for market in China: trivalent inactivated vaccine, which can be used for people aged 6 months and above; trivalent live attenuated vaccine for people aged 3-17 years; and tetravalent inactivated vaccine, which can be used for people aged 3 years and above.

[the latest trend of the global epidemic: the cumulative total number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 28.9 million] according to Worldometers world real-time statistics, as of 06:10 on September 13, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 28.9 million, reaching 28904211, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 923000, reaching 923626. COVID-19 of the United States has the largest number of confirmed cases in the world, with more than 6.67 million cases, reaching 6671026 cases, and a total of more than 197000 deaths, reaching 197977 cases.

[the latest epidemic situation in the United States: the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 6.67 million] Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 06:10 on 13 September, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 6.67 million, reaching 6671026, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 197000, reaching 197977.

[94372 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India have maintained more than 50, 000 confirmed cases for 46 consecutive days.] according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Health of India, as of 8: 00 a.m. local time (10:30) on September 13, a total of 94372 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in India in the past 24 hours, and the number of new cases in a single day has remained at more than 50, 000 for 46 consecutive days. At present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has risen to 4754356. There were 1114 new deaths, a total of 78586 deaths, and a total of 3702595 cured and discharged from hospital.

Terminal information

[China Automobile Association: the top 10 car brands sold a total of 297000 vehicles in August, accounting for 36% of the total sales] according to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2020, the top 10 car brands by sales are: Xuanyi, Lang Yi, Yinglang, Suiteng, Bora, Carola, Civic, Dihao, Lei Ling and Accord. Compared with last month, sales of Carola, Civic and Accord declined, while other brands increased, especially Yinglong and Suiteng. In August, the above ten brands sold a total of 297000 cars, accounting for 36.16% of the total car sales.

[Tesla plans to ship Chinese-made cars to Europe and Asia] Tesla plans to ship cars produced by his Shanghai super factory to other markets in Asia and Europe, according to people familiar with the matter. The Chinese-made Tesla Model 3, which is intended to be delivered abroad, is likely to start mass production in the fourth quarter, with target markets including Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Europe, where customers will have to wait for Tesla to deliver cars from California. It is reported that the program may start at the end of this year or early next year.

[Mercedes-Benz, Toyota or lock Fudi BYD "blade battery" capacity will reach 33GWh] with BYD's "semi-official" disclosure of "customer No. 1" recently visited two Fudi factories in Chongqing and Xi'an, the independent BYD battery production business sector at the beginning of this year has once again attracted the attention of the industry. After combing, the reporter found that a number of clues point to the "customer No. 1" to the German luxury brand Mercedes-Benz, which has a long cooperative relationship with BYD; at the same time, Toyota, which has reached a cooperation with BYD, may also lock the cooperation of the battery business in the "blade battery". Neither BYD nor the parties involved responded positively to the news, but the information suggests that Fudi is accelerating the expansion of its "blade battery" capacity due to demand for its own products, including BYD Han, as well as potential external orders. Among them, Fudi Changsha plant is conducting a large-scale recruitment to advance the production date originally scheduled for the second quarter of next year to mid-December this year. "View details

[Wynn shares: the order value of Tesla in the first half of the year is about 46.4775 million yuan] Wynn shares said on the interactive platform: the company's subsidiaries mainly supply Tesla with automotive plastic parts. at present, it has been a stable supply for Tesla. The order amount of Tesla in the first half of 2020 is about 46.4775 million yuan.

[Foster: plans to invest 1.02 billion yuan to expand the production capacity of photovoltaic film and photovoltaic backplane] on September 8, Foster announced that the company plans to further expand the production capacity of photovoltaic film and photovoltaic backplane, and decided to invest in projects with an annual production capacity of 250 million square meters of photovoltaic film and 110 million square meters of photovoltaic backplane through self-raised funds. The above projects are implemented by a wholly-owned subsidiary set up by the company in Jiaxing Economic and technological Development Zone, with a total investment of 1.02 billion yuan.

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