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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the outer plate metal is generally down * Shanghai Zinc and Lian Green 6 days * the supply material reduces tin price has support in September.
Sep 10,2020 07:06CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Outer plate metal generally fell * Shanghai Zinc even Green 6 days * supply materials reduced tin prices in September supported * prices such as metals continued to rise in August PPI year-on-year decline continued to narrow * Indonesia refined tin exports increased 27% month-on-month in August exports are expected to increase in the following months * it is expected that the rebar ex-factory price gap of 50-80 yuan / ton in Shagang in mid-September * the planned high volume of hot rolled commodities in September to maintain stability.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight quotation] most of the metal on the outer disk declines in inventory data, which is good for oil prices to return to the 40 mark.

[macro outlook] the euro zone announces the ECB's main refinancing rate in September

Today's focus

In August, industrial production continued to improve, market demand continued to recover, and international commodity prices such as crude oil, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise, driving domestic industrial product prices to rise. On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose 0.3%, down 0.1% from last month. Among them, the price of the means of production increased by 0.4%, with the increase falling by 0.1 percentage point. "check the details."

[Peruvian copper production has returned to normal] Peru's main export copper has actually returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, mainly reflected in the electricity demand of the country's large mining companies. "electricity consumption by large mining companies is a very good indicator of production," said Jaime G á lvez, deputy minister in charge of mining at Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines. Although electricity consumption fell 4.4% in August from a year earlier, electricity consumption in Copper Mine Mountain fell by only 0.4%. It can be said that mining production has reached the level before the epidemic. " "View details

[future domestic bauxite market tends to import current situation, characteristics and advantages] with the rapid development of China's aluminum industry, the serious shortage of bauxite resources in China has become increasingly prominent. according to Chinese customs statistics, in the first half of 2020, China's bauxite import is about 58.3 million tons, an increase of 30.28% over the same period last year. With the gradual emergence of the current situation that China's bauxite is highly dependent on imports, how to take the road to the development of bauxite in the future, how to reduce the risk of imported bauxite, and how to scientifically and rationally develop and utilize resources and other hot topics have become the focus of the industry. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: Shanghai Zinc even Green 6 fundamentals are not so bad! It is expected to stabilize after panic] consumer galvanization, overall orders increased, new orders are expected to arrive in mid-September, Electroweb project orders on arrival increased. In terms of die-casting zinc alloy, the overall order is steadily rising, and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season is worth looking forward to. As for zinc oxide, due to the gradual warming of automobile production and sales data, the tire plate performed better. On the whole, the pressure on the supply side is greater, the performance of the consumer side is better, the expectation of superimposed infrastructure consumption is strong, the inventory of social inventory and bonded areas is low, and the fundamentals of zinc are good, so SMM believes that after the market panic, zinc prices are expected to stabilize. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: demand for tin industry output in August is still supported by pressure shock of tin price] refined tin output in August was 14210 tons, an increase of 41.29% over July. Cumulative production from January to August was 89502 tons, a cumulative decrease of 10.62% over the same period last year. The big factory stopped production in July and resumed work at the end of July and resumed normal production in August. The output of most of the other manufacturers decreased slightly, mainly because the tin processing fees were low, the smelter profit margins were compressed, and even faced the risk of loss. In this state, the production willingness of the smelter is not high, and some smelters intend to control the output. A small number of enterprises have been affected by the start-up of nearby tin mines, and their output has increased slightly. According to SMM, Myanmar has been raining continuously in recent months, mining fortifications have been damaged, mountain roads have been scoured by Rain Water, production and transportation have been affected; in addition, the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases has surged, and the domestic situation is not optimistic. Myanmar's mineral imports are expected to decrease from August to October, or have an impact on production. "check the details.

[Shanghai and tin suffered a burden of nearly 2% supply reduction in September tin prices are supported] after the continuous consolidation of tin prices in mid-August, Shanghai and tin gradually rose in late August, reaching an one-month high of 148690 yuan / ton on September 3, but then fluctuated back down. The rising tin in Shanghai has benefited from the tight supply side. The collapse of the Manxiang mining area in Myanmar's WA region on August 20 due to the rainy season has seriously affected mine production, and the rainy season is not over yet, making it difficult to repair the mine. Production in the mine is not expected to resume until at least the end of October. The reduction in tin production in Myanmar is expected to last until October, with a reduction of about 1000 metal tons per month. In addition, about 2700 tons of tin were imported in July, which was almost consumed in July and August. The domestic silver mine is under construction, and the supply of tin ore is expected to return to about 600 tons of metal in the normal plant in September. To sum up, it is expected that the tin supply in September will be reduced by about 2000 tons compared with August, or there will be some support for tin prices. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 27% month-on-month in August and are expected to increase in the following months.] according to data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade on Tuesday, Indonesia's refined tin exports in August were 6158.67 tons, an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year and 27.1% over the previous month. As the largest exporter of refined tin, Indonesia's exports increased month-on-month compared with the same period last year. In addition, Tianma, Indonesia's largest tin ingot producer, put forward a plan to increase production at the beginning of this year, and Indonesia's overall export volume is expected to increase in the following months of this year compared with the same period last year. The number of new cases in various countries rebounded in September, and we need to continue to pay attention to the control of the epidemic and the steady growth of macro demand. "check the details.

According to reports, the Euro-Mediterranean Earthquake Center released KuaiBao, and Grade 5.3 Earthquake occurred in Tarau County, Indonesia. It is reported that Indonesia's Nitalauqun Island County is a county in Indonesia's North Sulawesi Province, located in the Tarau Islands northeast of the Minahasa Peninsula, is the northernmost county in eastern Indonesia. According to the preliminary understanding of SMM, there is no impact on the production of local nickel and iron plants in Indonesia at present.

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (9th)] yesterday, Liantie fluctuated in a narrow range in early trading, and the port spot market quotation was basically stable in early trading. Affected by the greening of commodity futures in the afternoon, the iron ore market began to accelerate its decline and closed down 824.5 in late trading. In terms of steel mills, apart from some on-demand purchases, most of them wait and see carefully to check the details.

[Shagang Forecast: expected ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang in mid-September is 50-80 yuan / ton] it is expected that the flat difference in ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang in mid-September is 50-80 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade large snail (ex-factory price 3900 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the warehouse cost in East China is 3850 yuan / ton, and the factory lift cost is 3800 yuan / ton. When the steel price entered the threshold of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", the national average price finally stood above the 3800 yuan / ton line. however, under the circumstances of the market "stretching its neck" and other peak seasons, the performance of the current market in the past two days was not satisfactory, indicating that even if it entered the peak season, demand temporarily did not show as bright as expected, while output was still high compared with the same period last year, coupled with the suppression of extremely high stocks, and the room for thread prices to go up was extremely limited. "check the details.

[SMM Hot Rolling scheduling report: in September, the planned high volume of hot rolled commodities to maintain stability has opened a "falling" channel? According to SMM's latest tracking, the planned hot-rolled commodity production of 35 mainstream hot-rolled steel mills surveyed in September totaled 10.4585 million tons, an increase of 0.3% over the actual hot-rolled commodity output in August. The planned quantity of hot rolled commercial materials in September has little change compared with that in August, and is basically in a high state of maintaining stability. Mainly because the profit of hot coil production in the early stage is relatively high compared with other varieties, the production enthusiasm of steel mills is high, and the hot coil rolling line is almost in a state of full production, which leads to the limited room for capacity increment of the rolling line this month. "check details.

[polysilicon weekly review-price stability caused by upstream and downstream games] the polysilicon market has been operating steadily this week, in which the prices of re-feeding materials, single crystal densification materials, single crystal cauliflower materials and polycrystal non-washing materials have all remained stable. The overall stable trading price of polysilicon this week is mainly due to: from the perspective of actual supply and demand in the market, according to the forecast of domestic polysilicon output, import and wafer production plan in September, supply falling short of demand is still the dominant atmosphere of this month's market. Polysilicon prices still have upward momentum; From the perspective of market supply and demand variables, polysilicon enterprises in Xinjiang have begun to resume production, the supply has increased slightly, the operating rate of individual silicon wafer enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and the demand has decreased slightly, so the lower reaches take this as the basis for price reduction. Therefore, the upstream and downstream games this week have led to the stable operation of the polysilicon market as a whole. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: it is difficult for oil prices to continue to decline in the later period of black swans in the oil market] it may be difficult for crude oil to rebound quickly in the short term, but the trampling market of bulls is not obvious for the time being, and the current absolute oil price is not high, if it continues to fall or attract funds to enter the market. As a result, oil prices do not have the conditions for a sustained deep fall, and the decline may stabilize after a violent correction. In the later stage, continue to pay attention to inventory, US stocks and epidemic situation. "check the details."

Important news of metals and industry

Recently, the first phase of Pulang Copper Mine of Yunnan Diqing Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., designed by China Nonferrous Engineering Co., Ltd. And China Enfei Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., has passed the completion acceptance organized by China Copper Co., Ltd. And Yunnan Copper (Group) Co., Ltd. Pulang Copper Mine is a very large porphyry copper deposit, with a total of 4.3 million tons of copper metal found. The orebody is thick and nearly vertical, and the ore reserves are large, so it is suitable for large-scale mining. The production capacity of the first stage mining and separation project of Pulang Copper Mine is 12.5 million tons / year.

[aluminum producer Alvance plans to improve the aluminum industry chain through acquisition] Alvance CEO Arnaud de Weert said on Monday that it plans to increase production and improve the aluminum supply chain through acquisition. Alvance is a company under the GFG Alliance, and the GFG Alliance is part of the Gupta family group, covering steel, aluminum, infrastructure and other fields. De Weert says it is looking to acquire green energy projects to help it achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2030. Alvance, headquartered in Paris, is planning to increase its primary aluminum production capacity from the current 332000 tons / year to 1 million tons / year within three years, through the acquisition of primary aluminum, bauxite / alumina raw materials and value-added products business, to establish an upstream and downstream aluminum industry supply chain to effectively reduce the impact of price fluctuations on enterprises.

[no sale agreement has been reached. Vale New Caledonia Nickel and Cobalt Plant may be closed] it is reported that due to the inability to reach an agreement with NCZ (New Century Resources Limited) on the sale of New Caledonia Nickel assets VNC (Noveelle Caledonie SAS), Vale said that it will take the necessary measures to overhaul VNC to deal with potential shutdown risks, and Vale is still looking for a solution. VNC owns the Goro nickel / cobalt mine, where production began in 2011 and its processing plant has a designed production capacity of up to 57000 tons per year, while the refinery is designed to produce 80% of nickel oxide and 20% mixed hydroxide, and cobalt is also produced in the form of cobalt carbonate.

Jiangxi Nanshi Lithium Power New material Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Nanshi Lithium Power New material Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise invested by Nan's Industrial Investment Group Co., Ltd. the company has a registered capital of 500 million yuan and is located in the beautiful Wanzai Industrial Park in Yichun City. It covers an area of 500 mu and currently employs 513 people. Centering on the national strategy for the agglomeration and development of lithium new energy industry, and relying on the high-quality lithium ore resources of "Lithium Capital of Asia" in Yichun, the company focuses on the research, production and sale of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and its high value-added products such as rubidium, cesium, potassium and other high value-added products.

Jiangxi Ruida New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Ruida New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., specializes in the R & D, production and sales of battery-grade metal salts and other products such as lithium cathode materials, precursors and waste lithium batteries. It is located in Wanzai County Industrial Park, Jiangxi Province, with registered capital of LXXX8 million yuan, covers an area of 100,000 square meters, and has assets of 500 million yuan. It is a national high-tech enterprise. At present, the battery-grade metal salt production line for the recycling of waste lithium batteries has been mass-produced, and the company's main products are: battery-grade cobalt sulfate, battery-grade nickel sulfate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade manganese sulfate.

In the first eight months of this year, the production and sales of hollow stabilizer steel products of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have achieved steady growth, and gradually have the capacity of mass production, supporting the production and manufacture of nearly 100000 high-end cars. The move of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. helps the domestic automobile industry break the dependence of hollow stabilizer on foreign imports, and plays a positive role in maintaining and improving the security and stability of the supply chain of the automobile industry.

Risk events approaching the US election in the second half of the year, who wins gold? For the two candidates, analyst Grosskopf believes that if U.S. Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins gold, his policy of raising taxes and spending will push gold prices higher. In response to the epidemic, the gold market has soared as central banks around the world have loosened aggressively. However, as the United States restarts the economy in many places, action on the gold price can weaken. "especially if Biden is elected, he will increase taxes and spending," Grosskopf said. The stock market will become relatively less attractive, the deficit will continue to rise sharply, and gold is undoubtedly a big hedge. "

[the current misalignment caused by the Juan Carlos Artigas: epidemic, the research director of the World Gold Council, stimulated gold ETF demand.] Gold ETF holdings hit a record in part because the epidemic triggered market turmoil, which led to a huge divergence between futures and spot prices earlier this year. People began to like gold ETF, rather than futures in general. Gold investment demand will have "two very strong supporting factors" for the rest of the year, including a high-risk environment and extremely low interest rates. We still face a lot of uncertainty about novel coronavirus's real impact on the global economy. In addition, there are other risks that have not really been addressed, such as Brexit. Real interest rates in most developed markets are negative, which increases the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset.

[Baltic dry index fell to its lowest level in nearly a month and a half] affected by the continued decline in freight rates for all types of ships, the Baltic dry index fell 32 points, or 2.4%, to 1296 points on Wednesday, the lowest level since July 28. The capesize index fell 49 points, or 2.6%, to 1867, the lowest since June 16, and average daily earnings fell $410 to $15482. The Panamanian shipping index fell 44 points, or 3.1%, to 1370, with average daily profit down $394 to $12330.

Macro focus

[Xi Jinping presided over the eighth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee] Xi Jinping made an important speech at the meeting and stressed that the circulation system plays a basic role in the national economy and constructs a new development pattern. We must regard the construction of a modern circulation system as an important strategic task. It is necessary to implement the new concept of development, promote high-quality development, deepen supply-side structural reform, give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, give better play to the role of the government, and make overall efforts to promote the hardware and software construction of the modern circulation system. We will develop new circulation technologies, new business type and new models, improve institutional norms and standards in the field of circulation, and cultivate and strengthen modern logistics enterprises with international competitiveness. To provide strong support for the construction of a new development pattern in which the domestic great cycle is the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.

[Wang Yi: the United States should comply with the historical trend of multipolarization of the world and democratization of international relations] on September 9, 2020, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sino-US relations while attending the video meeting of China-ASEAN foreign ministers: the US side has completely negated the China policy pursued over the past few decades, tried its best to portray China as a major opponent, constantly smeared and suppressed China, and attempted to contain China's development process, leading to a repeated decline in Sino-US relations. Wang Yi said: China has no ambition to seek hegemony, let alone to replace the United States. We will firmly defend our sovereignty, security and development interests.At the same time, we are willing to communicate and dialogue with the US side to promote the US side to correctly view and properly handle Sino-US relations in line with the historical trend of multi-polarization of the world and democratization of international relations, and finally form a way of getting along with harmony but differences and win-win cooperation.

Ministry of Commerce: in the next step, we will continue to take Xi Jinping's thought of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era as a guide to promote the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic great cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. We will make overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of the regular epidemic and the reform and development of commerce, speed up the cultivation of foreign trade new business type, stabilize processing trade, and actively expand imports.

[IMF warns that the novel coronavirus crisis is "not over yet" and stresses the need for multilateral cooperation to ensure adequate supplies once vaccines are developed. The sustained economic recovery from the crisis is the result of the rapid implementation of unprecedented support measures by the Government and the central bank, but more efforts are needed. Economic recovery across regions and sectors remains fragile and uneven. In order to ensure that the recovery is sustained, it is essential that support not be withdrawn prematurely.

[the ECB is expected to be more confident about the economic outlook] eurozone officials familiar with the discussions said that some ECB policy makers were already more confident in expectations of economic recovery. this may reduce the need for more monetary stimulus by the ECB during the year. The ECB will raise its forecast for GDP this year as private consumption performs much better than expected, but its latest forecasts for output and inflation will be only slightly higher than those expected in June, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials familiar with the situation also said that from the current scenario, the provision of monetary support other than bond purchases does not look necessary, and that economic forecasts, which will be further updated in December, will be an important factor in considering the next step.

[the unemployment rate in OECD countries fell to 7.7% in July and still higher than the pre-epidemic level] the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released data on the 9th local time, saying that the overall unemployment rate in its member countries was 7.7% in July, down 0.3 percentage points from June. But it is still 2.5 percentage points higher than before the job market was affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in February.

Terminal information

[it is said that Tesla Model Y was first made in November] there are media reports that the production date of, Model Y may once again surprise the outside world. After the completion of the second phase of the Shanghai plant, which began in February 2020, Tesla will immediately produce Model Y at the plant. At present, Tesla is carrying out "mechanical and electrical engineering" and "debugging" work, the former will be completed in October, the latter will be completed in November. If all goes well, Tesla is likely to start trial production of the Model Y in the next few months, and then start formal production, and the new car is expected to be delivered to consumers in the first quarter of 2021. It was also reported that Tesla was recruiting in China for the trial production of Model Y. In July, Tesla launched a new round of recruitment, recruiting 1000 workers to help expand its capacity. Tesla's positions include production operator, quality inspector, logistics forklift worker and security guard.

[BYD's new battery plant in Brazil] it is reported that a new battery production plant set up by BYD in Brazil recently began operation. BYD has already set up two other companies in Brazil, the electric bus chassis factory established in 2015 and the photovoltaic module plant established in 2017. The newly established battery factory in (Manaus), Manaus, is a small factory with an area of only 5000 square meters, with an initial investment of only 15 million reais (about US $2.7 million). Foreign media estimate that the plant is only responsible for producing modules that accommodate lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, not batteries. The plant will produce 18000 battery modules a year, including 1000 in September.

[France invests 7 billion EUR to develop hydrogen energy or will offset Paris's one-year carbon emissions] according to reports, the French government says it plans to spend 7 billion EUR, to help industrial processes and transportation use clean hydrogen energy. It is expected that by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions will be equivalent to Paris's annual carbon emissions. The global race to increase the scale of hydrogen energy has begun, and Europe sees hydrogen energy as the key to the future energy structure. But at present, using renewable energy to produce hydrogen from water is more expensive than extracting hydrogen from fossil fuels, so government subsidies are needed to keep costs down.

[GM's $2 billion acquisition of 11% shares in Nikola Nikola soared 45%] on Sept. 8, GM announced that it would take an 11% stake in electric truck maker Nikola and would produce its hydrogen fuel cell electric pickup Badger by 2022. Nikola shares soared on the news, up about 45 per cent in pre-market trading, while GM shares rose nearly 9 per cent. GM will receive a $2 billion stake in Nikola and has the right to nominate a board member. GM will also supply fuel cells for Nikola's Class 7 and Class 8 heavy trucks in other parts of the world except Europe. Phoenix-based Nikola specializes in zero-emission semi-trailers powered by batteries or hydrogen fuel, but recently launched Badger pickups to consumers.

Recently, in order to promote the promotion and application of electric vehicles in the taxi market, Dongfeng Qichen, Guangzhou Taxi Association and Olympic New Energy formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Guangzhou. Guangzhou Taxi Association actively promotes the electrification of taxis, while Aojing New Energy has carried out power exchange operation in more than a dozen cities across the country, and has accumulated relatively perfect technical reserves and rich operation experience, this replacement model may be locked in Dongfeng Qichen D60 EV.

(South Korea will increase the number of electric vehicles to 1.13 million to 200000 in 2025) on September 7, South Korean President Moon Jae-in announced on the first International Clean Air Blue Sky Day (International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies) that the country will invest US $17 billion to increase the number of electric vehicles from 110000 to 1.13 million and hydrogen vehicles from 8, 000 to 200000 by 2025. South Korea's environment ministry said it would achieve its growth target for electric vehicles with the help of government subsidies. The country also expects to add 45000 charging stations by 2025. Mr Moon's government says it will create 151000 jobs.

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