[important] SMM China's basic metal production data in August 2020

Summary of basic Metal production in China in August 2020

Electrolytic copper

In August, SMM China produced 810500 tons of electrolytic copper, an increase of 8.14 per cent from the previous month and 5.58 per cent year-on-year. From January to August, SMM China produced a total of 5.9944 million tons of electrolytic copper, an increase of 3.39 percent over the same period last year. The domestic output of electrolytic copper increased sharply in August compared with the previous month, mainly because there was basically no maintenance arrangement in August, and the output of the refineries that had been overhauled before recovered quickly. on the other hand, the continuous sufficient supply of cold materials also increased the output.

As domestic refinery production in the first half of the year was restricted by the epidemic in the first quarter and raw material supply in the second quarter, the growth rate of domestic copper production was lower than expected at the beginning of After entering August, the maintenance arrangements have been significantly reduced, and some refineries have begun to consider catching up with the annual target output, with a higher production schedule, and there are still new projects to be put into production, and the output is expected to maintain a high level.

According to the production plans of various refineries, SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production in September to be 815900 tons, an increase of 0.67% month-on-month and 7.45% year-on-year. Cumulative electrolytic copper production reached 6.8103 million tons in September, an increase of 3.86% over the same period last year.

Alumina

In August (31 days), China produced 5.966 million tons of alumina, of which metallurgical grade alumina was 5.756 million tons, and the average daily output of metallurgical grade was 185700 tons, an increase of 1% from the previous month and 3.41% from the same period last year. From January to August, China's cumulative output of metallurgical grade alumina was 44.096 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.35% compared with the same period last year. In August, individual alumina plants in Shanxi continued to increase production, while the southwest continued to increase new production capacity, and the overall output increased month-on-month in August.

As of early September, metallurgical grade alumina operation capacity of 68.45 million tons, is expected in September (30 days) metallurgical grade alumina production of 5.626 million tons, the average daily output rose to about 187500 tons, the increment is mainly contributed by the increase in the southwest (Chinalco Huaxi, Guodian Investment Sichuan), it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in the marginal cost of alumina in the north on the operating rate of local enterprises.

Electrolytic aluminum

In August (31 days), China produced 3.189 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, an increase of 6.13 percent over the same period last year. By the end of August, the national operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum had increased to 37.62 million tons / year, the completed capacity was 42.48 million tons / year, and the operating rate of national electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 88.6%. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces was put into operation steadily in August. In August, the average daily output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 103000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons compared with the previous month.

From January to August 2020, the cumulative output of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 24.319 million tons, an increase of 3.19 percent over the same period last year, and the domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 24.561 million tons, up 3 percent over the same period last year. In August, the domestic new electrolytic aluminum production was stable and individual aluminum plants resumed production in stages, the superimposed import window was opened, the imported aluminum ingots continued to flow in, the overall supply side maintained a small upward momentum, while the demand in the lower reaches of August was OK, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was basically the same as that in July. In September, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Sichuan and other provinces will be put into operation as scheduled, and the annual operating capacity will rise to about 37.72 million tons. SMM expects domestic electrolytic aluminum production in September (30 days) to be 3.1 million tons, up 7.19 per cent from a year earlier, and monthly consumption growth will narrow to about 4.35 per cent year-on-year.

Primary lead

In August, the country's primary lead production was 285000 tons, up 9.99% from the previous month and 12.01% from the same period last year. From January to August 2020, cumulative output increased by 4.44% compared with the same period last year.

According to SMM research, in August, except for equipment failures in Jinli in Henan, southern and western Guangxi, etc., production in other smelting enterprises was basically normal, or production resumed after overhauling last month (such as Henan Yuguang, Yunnan Chihong, etc.). At the same time, lead prices rose one after another in August, the main lead contract once refreshed a new high for the year, to 16585 yuan / ton, smelting enterprises' profits increased greatly, and silver prices also rose one after another during the period. Profits improved to drive the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises, and the output in August was finally higher than expected, with an increase of more than 20, 000 tons.

In addition, in September, the overhaul of smelting enterprises increased, and they are all large enterprises, such as western mining maintenance throughout August-September, Lingnan of China Gold has equipment inspection, Haicheng integrity maintenance also runs through September-October, production is expected to show a downward trend in September. SMM expects primary lead production to fall by about 10, 000 tons to 274000 tons in September.

Refined zinc

In August, SMM China produced 509100 tons of refined zinc, an increase of 16300 tons or 3.3 per cent from the previous month and 1.98 per cent from the same period last year. A total of 3.869 million tons of refined zinc were produced from January to August, a cumulative growth rate of 3.68 per cent over the same period last year. Among them, the sample alloy output of domestic refining zinc smelters in August was 78000 tons, an increase of 3.94 percent over the previous month.

According to SMM research, the domestic refined zinc output in August was higher than expected in July. The main reason: in August, the national benchmark processing fee for 50-grade zinc concentrate rose to 5450 yuan / metal ton compared with the previous month, coupled with the continued upward domestic zinc price, the production profit of the smelter was repaired, and the smelter took the initiative to increase production driven by profit. In addition, some refineries in Gansu, Hunan and Inner Mongolia returned to production after overhauling; in addition, the reduction of refined zinc is mainly concentrated in Henan, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia.

In September, although the zinc concentrate processing fees in some areas were reduced from the previous month, the comprehensive zinc concentrate processing fees were still high. Stimulated by high profits, except for the overhaul of some refineries in Gansu, smelters in other areas continued to increase production. Coupled with the resumption of production after overhaul of refineries in Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Henan, refined zinc production increased by 36900 tons to 545900 tons in September.

Refined tin

The output of refined tin in August was 14210 tons, an increase of 41.29% over July. The big factory stopped production in July and resumed work at the end of July and resumed normal production in August. The output of most of the other manufacturers decreased slightly, mainly because the tin processing fees were low, the smelter profit margins were compressed, and even faced the risk of loss. In this state, the production willingness of the smelter is not high, and some smelters intend to control the output. A small number of enterprises have been affected by the start-up of nearby tin mines, resulting in a slight increase in output. According to SMM, Myanmar has received continuous rainfall in recent months, mining fortifications have been damaged, mountain roads have been scoured by Rain Water, and production and transportation have been affected; in addition, the outbreak has led to a surge in the number of confirmed cases, and the domestic situation is not optimistic. It is expected that Myanmar's mineral imports will decrease from August to October, or may affect production, but Myanmar still has tin ore stocks, which is expected to affect the tin ingot end for some time. Production is expected to decrease slightly in September, or 14000 tons.

Electrolytic nickel

In August, the national output of electrolytic nickel was 14300 tons, down 2.25% from the previous month, an increase of 12.94% over the same period last year, and the total output in August was 330 tons lower than that in July. Among them, the output of Gansu smelter decreased by 3.85% compared with July. At present, the smelter is still in the stage-by-stage overhaul period, but it is reported that the impact of maintenance on production will be included in September data, so there is no decline for the time being. Liaoning smelter and Shandong smelter maintain normal production, output is the same as in July. The output of the Xinjiang smelter increased by 58.9% month-on-month compared with July. At present, the epidemic situation in Xinjiang has been completely unsealed, so the output has returned to the production level of June this year, while the Tianjin smelter has suspended production since August because of raw material problems. Guangxi smelter is still in a state of suspension since the beginning of the year.

It is estimated that the national output of electrolytic nickel in September 2020 is expected to be 13700 tons, which will continue to decline compared with August. Among them, the output of Gansu smelter will be affected by maintenance, and SMM estimates that the impact on production will be about 1000-2000 tons. As for the Xinjiang smelter, it is reported that the output in September will be lower than that in August. Jilin and Shandong smelters arrange production normally according to the previous production, while Tianjin and Guangxi smelters basically confirm that they will continue to stop production in September. Therefore, it is expected that the national output of electrolytic nickel will decrease significantly in August.

Nickel pig iron

In August, national nickel pig iron production increased by 3.42 per cent month-on-month to 44700 nickel tons, down 15.88 per cent from the same period last year. In terms of grade, the output of high nickel iron in August was 37400 nickel tons, an increase of 3.67% over the previous month, while that of low nickel iron in August was 7400 nickel tons, an increase of 2.18% over the previous month. The output of nickel pig iron in China increased more in August than that in July, and the increase in the output of high nickel pig iron was related to the resumption of production in some previous stop-production and overhauling iron works. at the beginning, the price of high-nickel pig iron continued to rise and the market supply was tight, and the output of mainstream large factories recovered. although some iron mills have reduced production, the impact on output is relatively small. Coupled with the superposition of many factors, such as the release of new production capacity, the output increased significantly in August. The increase in the output of low nickel pig iron is related to the increase in the output of 200 series integrated stainless steel.

National nickel pig iron production is expected to decline slightly in September, down 0.09% from the previous month to 44680 nickel tons, down 15.29% from the same period last year, of which high nickel pig iron rose 0.11% to 37400 nickel tons, and low nickel pig iron decreased 1.12% to 7300 nickel tons. The decline in nickel iron production in September was mainly related to the number of days.

Nickel sulfate

In August, the national output of nickel sulfate was 13300 tons of metal, and the physical volume was 60500 physical tons, an increase of 15.69 percent over the previous month and 18.46 percent over the same period last year. Among them, the output of battery grade nickel sulfate is 52800 physical tons, and that of electroplating grade nickel sulfate is 7800 physical tons. The output of nickel sulfate has increased to a certain extent this month, mainly due to the pick-up in the downstream demand of battery-grade nickel sulfate in August, the improvement in profits, and the increase in the operating rate of most nickel salt plants. In addition, a new production line of a nickel salt plant has been put into operation this month.

It is understood that September and October every year is the regular peak season of the industry, and the demand for nickel sulfate downstream will increase to a certain extent. Therefore, the national production of nickel sulfate is expected to increase by 9.14% to 14500 tons of metal in September 2020.

Output of metal products in August 2020

Description:

1. The value with * is the correction value, and the italic value is the predicted value.

2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.

Research methodology

1. Research methods

SMM production research is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regular monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and to issue China's metal production report.

In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage proportion of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the capacity scale, regional distribution, the nature of the enterprise and other detailed factors to reasonably select and distribute the sample, so that each sub-data is equally representative.

The production data include the output of last month (initial value), the output of the month before last month (revised) and the production schedule forecast of that month's output. In general, SMM makes less correction to the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.

Before the 10th of each month, it will be released to the public through the official website of Shanghai Nonferrous Network (www.smm.cn), Wechat and Subscription account (Nonferrous Today), mobile phone station (m.smm.cn) and other official channels.

2. Sample introduction

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