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[SMM Metal Breakfast] Metals are mixed * imports of unwrought copper are down 12.39% from the previous month * Sichuan disaster Silicon Plant resumes production.
Sep 8,2020 06:53CST
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Metals are mixed * imports of unwrought copper are 12.39% lower than the previous month * Sichuan disaster Silicon Plant resumes production * what is the mystery? Rare earth exports declined year by year. Before 8 months, rare earth exports decreased by 25.7%. In August, China's primary lead production increased by 9.99% month-on-month with 285000 tons. * can the fundamentals of Shanghai Nickel continue to rise after several times approaching the 120000 mark? * after the month-on-month decline in iron ore imports in August, the range of ore prices fluctuated * is the good day for real estate "over"?
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[macro outlook] the final value of GDP quarterly rate after the euro zone released its second-quarter quarterly adjustment

[overnight quotation] demand for lower-than-expected crude oil continued to fall by more than 1%.

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased 12.39% in August compared with September] according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products from January to August totaled 4.272 million tons, an increase of 38.1% over the same period last year. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totaled 668000 tons in August, up 67.1% from a year earlier and down 12.3% from a month earlier. The weakness of domestic copper consumption will continue to be reflected in the reduction of copper imports of electrolytic copper. In September, domestic copper consumption has not yet come out of the off-season, at the same time, domestic electrolytic copper production rebounded, superimposed price losses, refined copper imports are expected to decrease month-on-month in September. "check the details.

[general Administration of Customs: China's exports of copper, aluminum, rare earths, iron and steel in August] according to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 100.36 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in August, compared with 113 million tons in July. Exports of rare earths were 1642 tons in August and 1620.3 tons in July. Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products exported 395000 tons in August and 373000 tons in July. Steel exports were 3.68 million tons in August and 4.176 million tons in July. The export of oil products was 4.274 million tons in August and 3.211 million tons in July. Unwrought copper and copper products imported 668000 tons in August and 762000 tons in July. Natural gas imports were 9.362 million tons in August and 7.347 million tons in July. Copper ore and its concentrate imported 1.587 million tons, compared with 1.795 million tons in July. Imports of coal and lignite were 20.66 million tons in August and 26.1 million tons in July.

[SMM data: national primary lead production rose 9.99% in August from 285000 tons month on month] China's primary lead production in August 2020 was 285000 tons, up 9.99% from the previous month and 12.01% from the same period last year. From January to August 2020, cumulative output increased by 4.44% compared with the same period last year. According to SMM research, in August, except for equipment failures in Jinli in Henan, southern and western Guangxi, etc., production in other smelting enterprises was basically normal, or production resumed after overhauling last month (such as Henan Yuguang, Yunnan Chihong, etc.). "check the details.

SMM point of view: can the fundamentals of Shanghai Nickel continue to rise after several times approaching the 120000 mark? Prior to this, the sharp correction in the prices of nickel and various metals was dominated by macro factors such as the collapse of US stocks and the appreciation of the US dollar, with a range of appropriate recovery and adjustment in the short term; nickel fundamentals were temporarily stable, but stainless steel prices tended to peak at a high level. the upward pressure on nickel prices will increase, but at the same time, the room for pullback will be limited; at present, the fundamentals of nickel are good in the short term, and better than expected in the long run. 300 series stainless steel high output assist high nickel pig iron from surplus to deficiency in the third quarter, or tight balance in the fourth quarter, the surplus is less than originally expected, so the nickel market fundamentals of some nickel pig iron are good.

[SMM investigation: the integration of the three major stainless steel waste bases promotes the better development of the stainless steel waste industry] it is understood that Zhejiang Fusion Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. (Foshan Base), Henan Getian Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. (South China Base), Foshan Dashun Renewable Resources Co., Ltd., later reorganized and called [Tianheshun] Renewable Resources Co., Ltd., after integration, [Tianheshun] the site is located in Zhejiang Fusion Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. (Foshan base). With regard to site capacity, it is estimated that the average monthly capacity is 30,000 tons / month, of which 200 series account for about 60% and 400 series account for about 40%.

[thread spot review: during consolidation, the spot market operates smoothly] yesterday morning trading opened weakly and steadily. Except for the shackles of poor trading conditions in southwest China and other regions, the price was reduced by 10-20 yuan / ton, the spot market performance was also weak and stable. As the stock market plummeted in the afternoon, the spiral plunged, but prices in most markets remained relatively strong. In terms of transactions, on Monday, the purchasing mood at the terminal was relatively strong, and the overall shipping situation can still be checked for details.

[SMM analysis: the range of ore prices fluctuated after the month-on-month drop in iron ore imports in August] Customs data show that China imported 100.36 million iron ore and concentrate in August 2020. Recently, there are still strict expectations of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan area, production restrictions hype or continue to affect demand. In addition, the situation of high inventory of steel downstream has not been alleviated, and there is a certain pressure on steel prices, the current price of bearish iron ore. However, the profits of steel mills have rebounded slightly recently, the structural contradiction of superimposed port spot has not been resolved, and iron ore prices are also strongly supported. As a result, although the fundamentals of supply and demand weakened month-on-month in September, prices may fluctuate in a high range. "check the details.

SMM Analysis: the good days of real estate are "over"? Starting from August 20, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Housing and Construction convened an interview with some real estate companies in Beijing, requiring the 12 participating real estate companies to submit their latest balance sheets by the end of September. Subsequently, Evergrande issued a "30 per cent discount" under its debt ratio (159 per cent in 2019), sparking further concerns about the real estate market. SMM believes that the regulation of the real estate market is the only way for the state to adjust the industrial economic structure, is a long-term process, not "achieved overnight". The demand impact on the building materials market also tends to be medium-and long-term, and the short-term impact may be more focused on the emotional side. "check the details.

[MMi iron ore port spot index report (7th)] yesterday even iron shock down, near the end of the day to pull up; the port spot market early quotation steadily rose 5 yuan / ton, in the afternoon as the market continued to decline, some traders slightly open bargaining space. Steel mills mainly make enquiries at the beginning of the week, but the purchasing mood is not high. "check the details.

[SMM data: the total domestic production of electrolytic manganese increased significantly by 11.54% in August compared with the same period last year.] according to SMM statistics, the total domestic production of electrolytic manganese in August was 116000 tons, an increase of 11.54% compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 10% compared with 129100 tons in August 2019. In terms of price, the main producing area of the domestic manganese triangle and the spot tax-free ex-factory price of electrolytic manganese in Guangxi is basically around 10000-10100 yuan / ton in mid-early August. Manganese prices, which have been as low as below the production lines of domestic self-owned mining manufacturers for a long time, ushered in a slight inflection point in late August, among which, by the end of August, the taxable ex-factory price of electrolytic manganese spot resources in the mainstream area of the manganese triangle was concentrated at about 10500 yuan / ton. "check the details.

What's the mystery? Rare earth exports declined year by year. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's rare earth exports totaled 1640 tons in August, down 1.36% from the previous month, still falling sharply from a year earlier, with a drop of 62.3%. From January to August, rare earth exports totaled 24378 tons, down 25.7 percent from the same period last year. On the price side, the export price of rare earths rose significantly in August, up 79% from the same period last year. SMM believes that July and August are the overseas summer break. In addition, under the interference of the epidemic, overseas market demand continues to be sluggish. According to some traders, the atmosphere of overseas inquiry orders in July is light, and correspondingly, the operating rate of domestic rare earth factories is relatively low, resulting in a sharp decrease in rare earth exports in August compared with the previous month, and there is no big fluctuation compared with July. "check the details.

[SMM Daily Review: Sichuan disaster Silicon Plant resumes production] yesterday, the price of silicon in Huangpu Port was basically stable, with a turnover of 55 billion yuan per ton of oxygen-free silicon and 11300 yuan per ton of 44 silicon per ton. Some silicon plants in Sichuan stopped production in mid-August due to floods, and now most of them have recovered. The price of 55% silicon without oxygen is about 10200 yuan / ton. Another major production specification in Sichuan, 42kV chemical grade silicon monthly order is still under negotiation, and most downstream orders have not been released due to the large psychological price gap between buyers and sellers.

Important news of metals and industry

[SMM summary review: today's Shanghai copper rally is expected to remain high and volatile] fundamentals, LME inventory hit another all-time low, as of Friday, LME copper inventory totaled 82450 tons, falling inventory also played a key role in the recent price rise. The tight supply pattern at the mine end remains unchanged. As of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was at $48.28 / ton, down $0.57 / ton from the previous month, which is expected to continue to support copper prices. On the spot side, due to the sluggish domestic consumption in the peak season, it may be difficult for prices to continue to rise, and it is difficult to improve the market stalemate. "check the details.

[China Enfei successfully developed ultra-thin electrolytic copper foil] recently, China Nonferrous Engineering Co., Ltd. and China Enfei Engineering and Technology Co., Ltd. wet process high-performance electrolytic copper foil R & D team successfully developed 4 micron ~ 6 micron ultra-thin double light electrolytic copper foil products, indicating that the company has mastered the complete electrolytic copper foil product development technology covering the production process and equipment. As one of the deep processing products of copper, electrolytic copper foil is an important basic raw material in the electronic communication industry.

Recently, Yuntong Die casting Company, a subsidiary of Yuntong Technology, accepted the external audit of AS9100 aviation quality management system and successfully passed the audit. During the 3-day external audit, according to the audit plan, the external auditor carefully examined the company's organization and management, material supply, product development, production control, after-sales service and so on. In the process of audit, the external auditor fully affirmed the operation of Yunnan Copper Die casting Aviation quality system, the external audit work was successfully concluded, and a new certificate will be issued in the near future.

[the construction of the Weiqiao aluminum lightweight base project is fully accelerated] at present, it is the golden construction period of the "Golden Nine and Silver 10" project, the project department increases the guarantee of personnel, machinery, materials, equipment and other factors, and the construction progress is scheduled every day. a summary every day, seize the construction period, to ensure that in accordance with the planned schedule. According to Li Yuyong, deputy general manager of Shandong Weiqiao lightweight Materials Co., Ltd., the base construction unit now has more than 390 workers entering the site every day, with a total of three workshops capping walls at the end of the enclosure, and a steel structure project has been completed, and the roof has been closed recently. The pilot base, duty apartment and canteen were capped and decorated inside and outside. Lightweight extruded structural parts project single machine installation and commissioning, personnel operation training Synchronize launched, we are very confident in the National Day to achieve squeeze casting production line trial production.

[Guizhou Zhengan County speeds up the construction of 2.4 million tons of alumina project and plans to put into production in 2025] in the economical and intensive development of bauxite, Zheng'an has proved 177 million tons of bauxite resources and more than 500 million tons of prospective resources. Based on the advantages of resources, the county will improve the integrated development plan of bauxite, actively implement the strategy of large enterprises and groups, speed up the construction of projects of 5 million tons of bauxite and 2.4 million tons of alumina, and strive to achieve an output value of more than 10 billion yuan by 2025.

[Huazhong Bo Aluminum: fused cast Aluminum Bar Project was put into production this month] it was learned from Huazhong Bo Aluminum Industrial Park that the important core supporting project of Huazhong Bo Aluminum Industrial Park-the project with an annual production capacity of 100000 tons has been successfully ignited, which indicates that the overall trial production of the project has entered the countdown stage, and has laid a good foundation for the high-quality development of the whole Bo Aluminum Industrial Park. At the site of the intensive processing project of fused and cast aluminum bars of titanium alloy invested by Nangui Group, we can see that the main project has been completed, and workers are stepping up the installation and commissioning of the equipment, which is scheduled to be put into production in September.

[Linyi Iron and Steel Investment Phase I project with an annual output of 700000 tons of stainless steel is scheduled to be put into production in October] at present, the civil construction of the main factory building of the first phase of 700000 tons of high-end stainless steel project of Linyi Steel has been basically completed. It is reported that the steel structure of its main factory building is about 80% complete, and the continuous caster has been basically installed, and is now stepping up the installation of AOD furnace, electric furnace and LF furnace, with an overall completion of about 65%. At the same time, there are public auxiliary workshops, steel slag treatment workshops, oxygen production workshops and 110kV substations. According to reports, the first phase of the high-end stainless steel project with an annual output of 700000 tons, with a total investment of about 2 billion, covers an area of 280mu. It is expected to be debugged and put into production in October, with an annual output value of 10.8 billion yuan.

[Baosteel successfully trial-produced a new generation of steel plate for evaporator for nuclear power key equipment] on August 24th, leaders and experts from Xiapu Nuclear Power, Dongfang Electric Group, Dongfang heavy Machinery and other units of China Nuclear Power Group jointly witnessed the high temperature durability and creep test of steel plate for Xiapu nuclear power steam generator reached 10000 hours in Baosteel. So far, the long-term high temperature performance requirements of the steel plate for Xiapu nuclear power steam generator undertaken by Baosteel all meet the technical requirements, which is the first material to complete the high temperature endurance and creep 10000 hours performance verification test of steam generator in Xiapu 600MW demonstration fast reactor project of China Nuclear Group, which has laid a solid foundation for the steady progress of high-quality construction of the project.

[Delong's second phase of 1.35 million tons of stainless steel project will start construction in the fourth quarter] A few days ago, Xiangshui County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province revealed that Delong's second phase project with an annual output of 1.35 million tons of stainless steel will start construction in the fourth quarter. According to public data, the second phase of stainless steel project of Jiangsu Delong Nickel Co., Ltd. is located in Xiangshui New Metal material Industry Park in Xiangshui Industrial Economic Zone, covering an area of about 533300 m2 with a total investment of 2.00094 billion yuan. The main construction of the project includes 2 85-ton ultra-high power arc furnaces, 4 35-ton medium frequency furnaces, 3 120t AOD refining furnaces, 2 120t LF ladle refining furnaces, 1 120t VOD vacuum refining furnace, 2 straight arc single-flow stainless steel slab caster and corresponding public auxiliary facilities. It mainly produces 300 series high-end stainless steel, super austenitic stainless steel, duplex stainless steel and other high-quality stainless steel products. After completion, it can form an annual production scale of 1.35 million tons of stainless steel continuous casting billet.

[Tangshan concentrated on Operation Zero 7-14 to strictly investigate the implementation of tighter environmental protection and control] on September 6, the Tangshan Air pollution Prevention and Control work leading Group issued the "Circular on centralized Zero Action." Emphasis: focus on a week-long zero-point operation from 00:00 on 7 September to 14 September. Focus on verifying that the operation of environmental protection facilities in enterprises meet the discharge standards of pollutants, production equipment such as sintering machines and blast furnaces in the iron and steel industry are stopped in place according to the prescribed proportion, and production equipment such as sintering machines and blast furnaces in the iron and steel industry are stopped in place according to the prescribed proportion.

[Yantai Customs forbids the import of solid waste by returning 110 tons according to law] on the morning of August 31, at the container terminal of Yantai Port, Yantai Customs officers of Qingdao Customs carried out on-site supervision and customs seal on 110 tons of imported solid waste. Subsequently, this batch of solid waste will be loaded and departed under the supervision of the Customs. It is understood that this batch of goods are imported by a company in Yantai by means of general trade, and the declaration is called "PVC recycled particles", a total of 2 batches. After the on-site inspection staff of Yantai Customs took samples and sent them to the Qingdao Customs Technical Center for testing, they were identified as prohibited from importing solid waste.

[Grasberg is expected to go underground by 2022 but copper and gold sales are not expected this year.] at an online meeting on Friday, Tony Wenas, CEO of (PT Freeport Indonesia), the Indonesian branch of Freeport, said that as Grasberg copper and gold mines gradually shift to underground mining, copper sales are expected to jump to 1.4 billion pounds and gold sales will increase to 1.4 million ounces in 2021. However, it expects copper and gold sales this year to be lower than in previous years.

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at (Commerzbank), a German commercial bank, said, "the whole market has a lot of factors to digest, and the state of consolidation may be maintained for some time, but it will not affect the long-term trend." At present, there are no factors that can push the gold price above the $2000 / oz mark, but it will not fall below the 1900 support either. "

Macro focus


[general Administration of Customs: China's foreign trade grew by 6 per cent in August and exports increased by 0.8 per cent in the first eight months of this year] according to customs statistics, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods in the first eight months of this year was 20.05 trillion yuan, down 0.6 percent from the same period last year (the same below). The rate of decline was 1.1 percentage points lower than in the previous seven months. Of this total, exports totaled 11.05 trillion yuan, up 0.8 percent; imports totaled 9 trillion yuan, down 2.3 percent; and the trade surplus was 2.05 trillion yuan, up 17.2 percent. In August, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 2.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 6 percent. Of this total, exports totaled 1.65 trillion yuan, up 11.6 percent; imports totaled 1.23 trillion yuan, down 0.5 percent; and the trade surplus increased by 74.4 percent to 416.59 billion yuan.

In the next step, the relevant departments will continue to promote the full implementation of the pre-entry national treatment plus negative list management system. More opening-up policies are also in the pipeline, such as promoting the internationalization of the RMB, deepening the reform in the field of foreign exchange, and promoting the opening up of the capital account in an orderly manner. While opening wider to the outside world, experts suggest that it is necessary to establish a risk management system commensurate with the level of openness and strengthen the linkage of supervision at home and abroad.

[the central bank has reversed the repurchase for 22 working days in a row, and analysts expect it to be difficult to land in the short term.] on Sept. 7, the central bank carried out the reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan for seven days by way of interest rate bidding, carrying out the reverse repurchase operation for the 22nd consecutive working day. According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, from August 7 to September 7, the central bank's cumulative reverse repurchase volume reached 2.36 trillion yuan, while a total of 1.97 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase expired during this period, so the central bank achieved a net investment of 390 billion yuan. This is also the first time since the beginning of this year that the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase for more than 20 days in a row, and during this period, it is also relatively rare to carry out reverse repurchase for 14 consecutive days at the end of the season, the middle of the year, and around the Spring Festival. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that in view of the fact that the growth rate of bank loans may slow steadily in the second half of the year, and that the current monetary policy pays more attention to maintaining a balance between stable growth and risk prevention, and does not engage in flooding, it is unlikely that the reserve requirement will be lowered in the short term.

[the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is a normal two-way fluctuation] the trend of the RMB exchange rate is strong, mainly because the fundamental bullish gradually prevails over the news negative. The benefits of the fundamentals mainly include effective prevention and control of the local epidemic, better-than-expected economic recovery, peak and decline of the US dollar index, and so on. Moreover, in July and August, the economic boom continued to expand, the dollar index accelerated pullback, and foreign holdings of RMB bonds were greatly increased.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

The Russian Ministry of Health said that the first batch of novel coronavirus vaccine "Satellite-V" has been put into civilian circulation and is expected to be delivered to various regions in the near future.

Terminal information

[output / Software Power Volkswagen: surpass Tesla in three years] it is reported that recently, Volkswagen Union President Bernd Osterloh said in an interview with German media that Volkswagen is expected to overtake Tesla in electric vehicle production and software development within three years. Osterloh said that assuming that Tesla has a capacity of between 300000 and 500000 vehicles per plant, the total capacity of the three plants would be between 900000 and 1.5 million vehicles. Volkswagen hopes to achieve the same goal by 2023, perhaps even earlier.

19:36 on September 4th, the first domestic light rail continuous rolling line designed and manufactured by China Metallurgical Sadie was put into production in Hebei Yongyang Special Steel Co., Ltd., and the first steel was successfully hot tested. after testing that all the cross-section dimensions and surface quality of the products were qualified, the performance index of the rolling mill and the automatic rolling mill were stable, and 30 pieces of steel were continuously produced that night.

[Evergrande national real estate 30% discount general mobilization Xu Jiayin held a meeting until 1: 00 a.m.] in order to launch the national real estate discount promotion program, Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of China Evergrande (03333.HK), led a group of senior executives to hold a marketing conference at 10: 00 p.m. on September 6. It is learned that the marketing conference superimposed monthly working meeting, the conference will not end until around 1: 00 a. M. on September 7. For Evergrande's latest price reduction promotion measures, market analysts believe that under the new "345" financing rules, this may be intended to take advantage of the traditional "gold, nine and silver ten" opportunity to expand market share and reduce debt ratio.

[the inventory warning index of Chinese car dealers fell 9.9% month-on-month to 52.8% in August] approaching Jinjiu Silver 10, the inventory pressure of car dealers decreased significantly. According to the latest "inventory early warning Index Survey of Chinese Automobile Dealers" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index), the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in August 2020 was 52.8%, down 9.9% from the previous month and 0.5% from the same period last year. Although the inventory early warning index is still above the rise and fall line, the overall circulation of cars has improved. According to the sub-index, the market demand index, average daily sales index, employee index and operating condition index increased month-on-month in August, which is the direct source of the reduction of inventory pressure. From an index point of view, the inventory index dropped 6.3% month-on-month compared with July, with a marked improvement.

[* ST Haiyuan plans to acquire 100% stake in Saiwei Power supply to enter the field of photovoltaic modules] on September 4, * ST Haiyuan announced that according to the strategic needs of the company's future development, the company intends to acquire 100% equity in Xinyu Saiwei Power Technology Co., Ltd. ("Saiwei Power"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangxi Jiawei Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. ("Jiangxi Jiawei"), which corresponds to the subscribed capital contribution of RMB 50 million. The paid-in capital contribution is RMB 0). Saiwei Power has advanced photovoltaic module R & D and production technology, the company is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the photovoltaic industry, and intends to introduce photovoltaic module business.

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