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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the metal on the outer plate rose collectively * the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline in September * aluminum bar processing fees rebounded strongly.
Sep 6,2020 18:22CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] the metal on the outer disk rose collectively * the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline in September * aluminum bar processing fees rebounded strongly * the start-up of downstream construction slowly recovered during the peak season, most downstream enterprises were still optimistic * the start-up rate of lead-acid batteries declined in the case of weakening new orders * Ghana hopes to rebuild the aluminum smelter by looking for strategic partners * Lygend will supply 2.2Mt cobalt compounds to Chinese metal recovery company GEM.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight quotation] the outer disk metal collectively rose, Lun copper rose 3%, the US index rebounded to precious metals under pressure.

[macro outlook] Germany announces monthly rate of industrial output after quarterly adjustment in July

Today's focus

[SMM Analysis: current situation of Copper Import after the implementation of the New solid waste Law] on September 1, the most stringent "Law on the Prevention and Control of Environmental pollution by solid waste" officially landed, and market participants dared not take such a high risk, and they all had concerns about the import of waste after September. It coincides with the situation that the imported waste of an enterprise has been returned, which aggravates the market panic, and the domestic waste enterprises are cautious about the import of scrap copper. From the point of view of shipping, large foreign shipping companies have earlier issued a suspension notice. According to SMM, there are no small obstacles to the transportation of waste from Europe, the United States and other regions to China, resulting in great fluctuations in the quotations of imported scrap copper, and it is also restraining the willingness of waste enterprises to import. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: weak orders and high inventory are expected to continue to decline in September.] according to SMM research data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in August was 72.66%, down 3.50% from the previous month, and 2.79% lower than the same period last year. After the operating rate hit an all-time high in April, the operating rate of refined copper bar enterprises declined for the fourth consecutive month in August, with negative growth compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the operating rate of 9 fine copper rod enterprises will be 71.64%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous month, and 5.16 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory pressure of finished products in the copper rod factory increased in August, and the order expectation was pessimistic. The enterprise still has a stop-production and maintenance plan in September, and the operating rate in September is expected to continue to decline slightly from the previous month. The copper market is sluggish in peak season. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: base price falling demand maintaining stability aluminum bar processing fee strong rebound] from the feedback of downstream profile enterprises, the current waiting orders of large enterprises are OK, the orders of small and medium-sized enterprises are slightly insufficient, most of the feedback new orders are not as expected, and the problems of capital and account period will also affect the start-up and scheduling of downstream profile enterprises. August demand off-season is not weak, aluminum prices after this week's deep correction, downstream and traders take advantage of low prices to actively restock, but the extent of the improvement in consumption in September will still take time to verify. Before there is a significant increase in demand, aluminum bar processing fees are likely to be under pressure as aluminum prices stop falling and rebound, and there is limited room to continue to rise in the short term. "check the details.

[SMM aluminum downstream weekly survey: the peak season downstream start slowly pick up most downstream enterprises are still optimistic] this week, aluminum downstream enterprises started a small increase of 0.2%. Compared with before, aluminum sheet, strip and foil, primary and recycled alloy enterprises are relatively optimistic about September demand, relevant automobile, construction, electronics, packaging and other orders have improved to a certain extent, aluminum profile and cable enterprises have not seen a significant increase in orders. the overall downstream is still optimistic about September orders, but there is no obvious expectation for the speed of demand recovery. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that there may still be a slight increase in the start of construction downstream of aluminum next week, but the recovery time of consumption in the peak season may continue to be extended. "check the details.

[SMM research: lead-acid battery operating rate weakens in new orders] according to SMM research, last week (August 31-September 4) the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the five provinces of SMM was 72.52%, down 0.46% from the previous month. It is understood that the lead battery replacement market continues the peak season, but recently lead prices have fallen frequently, and the purchasing enthusiasm of dealers has dropped significantly. For example, new orders for electric bicycles and car battery enterprises have decreased to varying degrees; at the same time, the RMB exchange rate has changed greatly, and export orders of some enterprises have dropped, and some automobile battery enterprises have begun to lower their production plans in September. Other electric bicycles and communication battery enterprises maintain basic stability in production. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: macro drag on lead prices, inventory decline & tightening of recycled lead supply is a supporting factor] in terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, primary lead production is relatively stable. At present, recycled lead is the focus of the market. Since September 1, the new solid waste law has been implemented, and the implementation varies greatly among regions. Coupled with the decline in lead prices, profits are close to zero, and the willingness of recycled lead refineries to ship goods is low. On the whole, the supply of recycled lead may be tightened. SMM believes that the supply of recycled lead is tightening and the social inventory of lead ingots is falling continuously. On the whole, the fundamentals of lead are good, and the short-term decline in lead prices is expected to be limited. Later, we still need to pay attention to the impact of solid waste law on the supply of recycled lead.

[SMM survey: Henan refinery increased production of recycled lead weekly operating rate] according to the Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) survey, last week (August 31-September 4) SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in the four provinces weekly operating rate of 60.5%, up 1.3% month-on-month. Among them, the operating rates of licensed smelting enterprises of recycled lead in Anhui, Jiangsu and Guizhou are 54.8%, 66.7% and 44.2% respectively, which are the same as last week. Due to low profits and insufficient power to increase production in refineries, it is difficult to fluctuate the operating rate. "check the details.

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (4th)] as of September 4, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 106.65 million tons, up 760000 tons from last week and down 3.65 million tons from a year earlier. The average daily dredging capacity of the port increased by 121000 tons to 2.943 million tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 69200 tons over the same period last year.

[SMM analysis: rare earth prices have cooled down, terminal consumption cautious procurement] Last week, the domestic rare earth market cooled, praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, terbium and other mainstream products have varying degrees of pullback; market transactions are sporadic, consumers are cautious to purchase. Light rare earths, lanthanum and cerium still maintain long-term stability, fundamentals and trading conditions have not changed much. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has fallen back this week, especially as the previous high price began to fall. At present, the phenomenon of demand-side price reduction of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is common, and they are all small exploratory enquiries and purchases; at the current good price of the year, distributors intend to ship goods; most of the quotations of separation plants are still strong, low prices do not ship for the time being. "check the details.

It is difficult for metallurgical grade silicon to continue to rise due to abundant reserves of traders and large orders abroad, but large factories in Xinjiang have not resumed production. Factors such as not much time left in the high water season will support prices, and it is expected that low-grade stability will give priority to low-grade stability, and high-grade specifications such as 330mm will slightly follow the rise of 42mm silicon. Chemical grade 42 silicon and other brands are expected to continue to rise because of their special relationship between supply and demand. Monthly unit prices of more than 13000 yuan / ton will change from a small number of transactions to the mainstream, and the abnormal price difference between chemical grade and metallurgical grade specifications will still exist in October. And there is the possibility of further enlargement. "check the details."

[SMM Silicon inventory: less Silicon inventory in Tianjin] SMM statistics the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places totaled 63000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with last week. Tianjin Port warehouse continues to digest due to less goods arriving in Xinjiang. Although the epidemic prevention level in Xinjiang has been lowered on Tuesday, it will take time for automobile transportation to recover gradually. Tianjin Port warehouse has not seen a significant increase in the arrival of goods for the time being. "check the details.

[SMM Analysis: the second batch of new energy vehicles going to the countryside to benefit power battery companies] recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list of the second batch of automobile companies and models for the activities of new energy vehicles going to the countryside. The list includes 14 companies, including SAIC GM Wuling, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Automobile, Chery Commercial vehicle, and so on, as well as a total of 36 models under their ownership. The two batches of the list includes a total of 52 models from 19 automobile companies. In terms of power battery output, in July 2020, China's power battery output totaled 6.16Whs, an increase of 6.4% over the same period last year and 13.8% month-on-month. This car trip to the countryside is expected to drive the production and sale of new energy vehicles in the future. At the same time, it is good for power battery enterprises to check the details.

[SMM analysis: chromium prices rise later or steadily] the price of SMM chromium 99A was raised to 45000-46000 yuan / ton last week, with an average price increase of 500 yuan / ton compared with the last adjustment. It is understood that the price rise is mainly due to the rise in the price of chromium oxide, its raw material. Some production enterprises said that the recent rise in raw material prices led to an increase in chromium prices, the overall transaction is weak and stable, and the support brought by demand is limited. Some other consignors believe that due to the small profit space of chromium production enterprises at present, the increase brought about by cost factors may continue to make efforts to improve chromium prices. "check the details."

Important news of metals and industry

[SMM data: national mainstream copper market inventory increased by 13100 tons month-on-month this week] as of last Friday, SMM national mainstream copper market inventory increased by 13100 tons month-on-month to 328300 tons. Among them, the copper inventory in Shanghai increased by 5400 tons to 221800 tons compared with the previous month; the copper inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2400 tons to 28700 tons; and the copper inventory in Guangdong increased by 10100 tons to 77800 tons.

[SMM data: bonded area inventory: goods arrived in Hong Kong did not flow into bonded inventory unchanged] according to SMM research, pure nickel inventory in Shanghai bonded area remained unchanged at 20800 tons on Friday compared with August 28th. The price of nickel fell after rising this week, but the import window continued to be closed and foreign trade in the bonded area continued to be untraded. According to SMM, more than 1000 tons of nickel plates arrived in Hong Kong this week, a small amount of which is currently flowing into the country, and the rest of the goods will be declared in the domestic social warehouse at the end of this week. As for nickel beans, about 600 tons of incoming goods were cleared at the beginning of the week, which was also not reported in the bonded warehouse, so the inventory in the bonded area was flat this week. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: base price falling demand maintaining stability aluminum bar processing fees rebounded strongly] due to the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, various industries were affected to varying degrees, and the lithium industry chain was no exception. In the first half of the year, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 350000 and 336000 respectively, down 42% and 44% respectively from the same period last year. The installed capacity of power batteries also fell short of expectations. The total installed capacity of power batteries in the first half of the year was 17.5 GWH, down 42% from the same period last year. Recently, as the major lithium industry giants have disclosed their first-half results one after another, the net profits of many listed companies have declined compared with the same period last year, and the Ningde era, the leader of the power battery industry, has also been greatly affected, with net profit down 7.86%. The net profit of Tianqi lithium industry even plummeted by 460.15% in the first half of the year. From the 10 lithium battery companies known by SMM, only BYD and Foster's first-half net profit rose year-on-year. "check the details.

[Ghana hopes to rebuild aluminum smelter by finding strategic partners] State-owned Ghana Comprehensive Aluminum Development Company (GIADEC) has developed a five-year plan to rebuild the country's only aluminum plant, Volta Aluminum Company (VALCO). At present, the company, which was founded in 1967, has less than 5 per cent of its installed capacity and produces no more than 10,000 tons of metal a year on two of the ten production lines. Michel Ansakh, general manager of GIADEC, said the company is currently looking for a strategic partner to restore the plant. According to him, the agreement can be signed by the end of this year. In the first stage of modernization, it is planned to increase the productivity of the enterprise to 180000 tons per year, while in the second stage, it should reach its full design capacity of 300000 tons per year.

[IGO further promotes Fraser Range Nickel Exploration] recently, IGO has signed an agreement with Boadicea Resources to ensure the establishment of ground locations along the nickel-copper-rich Fraser Range province in Western Australia. This includes the mining rights immediately generated by IGO's Nova nickel-copper-cobalt business and the Symons Hill mining rights adjacent to Nova. IGO will pay $5.5 million in cash to Boadicea and subscribe for $1.5 million of Boadicea shares at 24 cents a share. Through the agreement, IGO will acquire nine Fraser Range units for a five-year exploration period. Peter Bradford, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of IGO, said: "as a major landowner in the Fraser Mountains and operator of Nova operations, IGO firmly believes in the potential of multiple nickel-copper sulphide deposits in the area."

The registered capital is 10 billion yuan! The newly established Linyi colorful Sea Iron and Steel Group will develop the stainless steel industry. Recently, an enterprise named Linyi Qianhai Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. has attracted the attention of our association. Information shows that it was registered in July, with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan. According to the ownership structure of Linyi Qianhai Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., Linyi Iron and Steel Investment Group Co., Ltd. accounts for 40%, Shandong Xinhai Science and Technology Co., Ltd. accounts for 30%, and Shandong Iron and Steel Group Yongfeng Lingang Co., Ltd. accounts for 30%. Shandong Xinhai Science and Technology Co., Ltd. has many advantages, such as strong nickel iron, power resources and 3.8 million tons of stainless steel production capacity.

According to SMM, as of last Friday, the total inventory of pure nickel in SMM six places was 44872 tons, an increase of 193 tons compared with August 28, and a net increase of 300 tons to 2300 tons of nickel beans. Last week, 600 tons of nickel beans were stored in Shanghai, and a small amount was also found in Russian nickel plates. According to SMM research, next week, more than 1000 tons of imported nickel plates will still be reported to the Shanghai social warehouse after customs clearance, while for domestic brands, due to the rise in Jinchuan, many traders carry nickel plates transported by their own manufacturers to sell before arriving in Shanghai. "check the details.

[Lygend will supply 2.2Mt cobalt compounds to Chinese metal recycling company GEM] recently, PT Halmahera Persada Lygend will supply 17.9 million tons of nickel compounds and up to 2.2Mt cobalt compounds to Chinese metal recycling company GEM. PT Halmahera Persada Lygend is a joint venture between Indonesian Halita Group (Harita Group) and Chinese mining company Ningbo Lygend. Lygend is currently building a factory on Obi Island in the archipelago. The eight-year supply agreement, which will take effect no later than June 30, 2021, will take effect as soon as the Obi Island plant enters commercial operation. More financial details of the agreement were not disclosed.

[the central bank bought only 8 tons of gold in July, the lowest level in nearly two years.] according to the latest report of the World Gold Council ((WGC)), the gold demand of central banks around the world slowed significantly in July. Central banks around the world bought only 8.2 tonnes of gold net in July, the lowest level since December 2018. According to specific data, Turkey bought 19.4 tons of gold in July, the central bank of Qatar bought 3.1 tons, the central bank of India bought 2.8 tons, and the central bank of Kazakhstan bought 1.9 tons. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan sold 11.6 tons of gold and Mongolia's central bank sold 6.1 tons of gold. In fact, Mongolia's central bank has sold gold reserves for three months in a row.

[semi-annual report: global water release stimulates gold prices to soar in the first half of the year revenue growth of precious metals enterprises] affected by the epidemic, the global economy suffered a severe recession in the first half of the year. In response to the pressure of economic slowdown, central banks and governments of major economies around the world have launched large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. The international gold price opened at US $1517.18 / oz at the beginning of the year and closed at US $1780.72 / oz at the end of June. the average price in the first half of the year was US $1645.42 / oz, an increase of 25.94% over the same period last year. The average price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 369.09 yuan / g, up 28.28% from a year earlier. The epidemic is like a double-edged sword. The performance of listed companies in precious metals varies. Some companies have achieved excellent performance due to the rise in gold prices. For example, the net profit margin of Western Gold is as high as 5025%. But there are also companies that lose money due to rising raw materials and cash flow difficulties. "check the details.

Macro focus

Chen Yulu: more foreign capital and foreign-funded institutions are entering China's financial market in an orderly manner. Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the people's Bank of China, said at the 2020 China International Financial Annual Forum on Sept. 6 that in the negative list of special measures for foreign investment access issued this year, the negative list of financial sector access has been officially cleared. At present, the above measures have achieved initial results, and more foreign capital and foreign-funded institutions are entering China's financial market in an orderly manner, showing a new pattern of letting a hundred flowers blossom.

[global manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 per cent in August] according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI was 52.5 per cent in August, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and remaining above 50 per cent for two consecutive months. Manufacturing PMI in Asia, Africa, the Americas and Europe all showed a continuous upward trend, and all rebounded to more than 50 per cent, indicating that the global manufacturing sector is showing signs of sustained recovery, which is stronger than last month.

[novel coronavirus vaccine is available: nine vaccines around the world have entered phase III clinical trials, three from China] on September 4, World Health Organization (WHO) held COVID-19 's regular press conference. Sumia Swaminathan, chief scientist of World Health Organization (WHO), said that more than 30 novel coronavirus vaccines worldwide have entered clinical trials, of which 9 novel coronavirus vaccines are in phase III clinical trials. After combing, the reporter found that three of the nine novel coronavirus vaccines that entered phase III clinical trials were from China, namely, the inactivated vaccine of Wuhan Institute of Biological products, the inactivated vaccine developed by Kexing Biotechnology, and the adenovirus vector vaccine developed by Academician Chen Wei.

[Haitong Securities Jiang Chao: Fed easy money or early exit] Haitong Securities Jiang Chao believes that although the Federal Reserve has not announced the withdrawal of unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy, in practice, although it has continued to buy treasury bonds after June, the overall width has not been further increased. In addition, the impact of novel coronavirus's epidemic is by no means the 2008 financial crisis, but more similar to a giant flu or a serious natural disaster, which has a great impact on the economy, but recovers more quickly. this also means that the monetary stimulus used during the epidemic may have withdrawn earlier than the 2008 financial crisis.

[ECB policy may be greatly influenced by the Federal Reserve Lagarde will be cautious] ECB policy may be greatly influenced by the Federal Reserve. ECB officials face not only the strength of the euro to a two-year high, but also the driving force behind it-the Fed periodically tolerates accelerating inflation, a policy the ECB needs to emulate. Earlier this year, the ECB proposed to review monetary policy, but then focused on dealing with the epidemic, the assessment work stagnated, and now the Fed's action may provide some impetus to the ECB. Moreover, with only two months to go before the US election, events in the US are likely to be the focus of the ECB's attention.

[U.S. non-farm data for August was slightly higher than expected by 1.371 million.] on Friday, September 4, Labor Department data showed that the United States added 1.371 million non-farm payrolls in August, slightly better than the expected increase of 1.35 million, but significantly lower than the previous revised figure of 1.734 million. The unemployment rate in the United States fell back below 10% after a four-month interval in August, actually recording 8.4%, also lower than the expected 9.80%. The annual rate of hourly wage in August was 4.70%, 0.2 percentage points higher than expected, but lower than the previous value of 4.80%. Non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 1.371 million after the quarterly adjustment in August, the fourth month in a row, but more than 10 million jobs have been lost since the outbreak.

Terminal information

[100% reuse Tesla online battery recycling business] according to officials, Tesla has launched a battery recycling service in China, which claims to recover "any batteries that no longer meet customer needs". And these lithium-ion batteries 100% will be recycled. If customers want to use the service, they can contact Tesla customer service center. At present, Tesla does not promote the battery recycling service with great fanfare, but only introduces the battery recycling in the question and answer interface of the official website. Tesla said in the introduction that the reason for launching the battery recycling service is for environmental and commercial considerations, and service centers around the world can recycle batteries.

[China, the United States and Europe rose Volvo sold 50,000 cars worldwide in August] Volvo officially announced the latest sales results a few days ago. Data show that Volvo sold 16000 vehicles in China in August, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier. From January to August, Volvo sold 96000 new cars in China, up 1.5 per cent from a year earlier. Globally, Volvo sales rose 7.2 per cent year-on-year to 51000 vehicles in August; regionally, in addition to China, the US and European markets also rose, with Europe up 4.9 per cent to sell 17000 vehicles and 10000 in the US up 12.9 per cent. From January to August, a total of 383000 new cars were sold worldwide, down 13.5% from the same period last year. In terms of specific model performance, globally, Volvo's SUV product camp performed better, accounting for 71 per cent of Volvo's total sales.

[new car sales in Germany fell 20 per cent in August Tesla and BMW led the rise] German new car sales fell 20 per cent in August from a year earlier to 251044, according to figures released by (KBA), the German transport ministry. As of August, cumulative car sales in Germany fell 29 per cent year-on-year to 1.77 million units in 2020. Last month, major car brands had a mixed performance in Germany. Brands such as Tesla (up 454 per cent), BMW (up 15 per cent), Nissan (up 14 per cent) and DS (up 12 per cent) were winners, bucking the trend. Other brands with higher sales include Toyota (up 8.9 per cent), Mini (up 3.3 per cent) and Fiat (up 1 per cent).

[France added 379 MW of solar installed capacity in the first half of 2020] according to French data and statistical research, the country added 379 MW of solar capacity in the first half of 2020 (1H). France installed 405 megawatts of solar capacity in the first half of 2019. These new devices are mainly concentrated in the south of the country. By June 2020, the total cumulative installation in France reached 10.3 GW.

[China's electric bicycle output from January to July increased by 18.7% over the same period last year] the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the development of the electric bicycle industry from January to July. From January to July 2020, among the main products of the national bicycle manufacturing industry, the output of two-wheeled pedal bicycles was 23.6 million, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year. The output of electric bicycles was 15.501 million, an increase of 18.7%. In July, the national output of two-wheeled bicycles was 4.498 million, an increase of 32.1 percent over the same period last year, and that of electric bicycles was 3.741 million, an increase of 49.5 percent over the same period last year. From January to July, the operating income of large-scale bicycle manufacturing enterprises nationwide was 86.52 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5 percent over the same period last year, and the total profit was 3.77 billion yuan, an increase of 28.4 percent over the same period last year.

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