Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / Flash avalanche! The three major US stock indexes plummeted, the Dow plunged more than 800 points, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 5%! The fund for the continuous decline in international oil prices has reduced its net holdings by about 10,000 hands for three c
Flash avalanche! The three major US stock indexes plummeted, the Dow plunged more than 800 points, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 5%! The fund for the continuous decline in international oil prices has reduced its net holdings by about 10,000 hands for three c
Sep 4,2020 08:10CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: the three major indexes of US stocks collectively fell, with the Nasdaq down 4.96%, the S & P 500 down 3.51%, and the Dow down 2.78%. Both recorded the biggest one-day decline since June 11. Major technology stocks led the market lower, with Tesla down 9%, down about $100 from its post-split high, Apple down 8%, down about $17 from this week's high, and zoom down about 10%, down about $100 from this week's high. Cruise and airline stocks bucked the trend, with Azul up nearly 6 per cent and Carnival cruise up more than 5 per cent.

The Nasdaq index has traded above its 50-day moving average for more than 100 days in a row. According to the media, whenever the index is above its 50-day moving average for about 100 days in a row, it falls sharply. On Thursday, the index fell more than 5% in intraday trading, which could be the beginning of a larger correction.

The US stock panic index VIX rose 26.46 per cent to 33.60 as options markets became more worried about the future of US stocks. The GVZ (precious metals VIX) index rose 0.47 per cent. The OVX (VIX of crude oil ETF) index rose 16.31 per cent.

WTI October crude oil futures settled down 0.34% at 41.37 US dollars per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures settled at 44.07 US dollars per barrel, down 0.81 per cent.

COMEX December gold futures closed down about 0.4% at $1937.80 an ounce, the lowest close since Aug. 27.

Total assets fell by $45.2 billion to $4.49 trillion in the most recent week, according to the Fed's weekly report.

Late Thursday in new York, the yield on the 10-year benchmark treasury note fell 1.30 basis points to 0.6347%. The yield on 20-year Treasuries fell 0.62 basis points to 1.1487%. At 11:19 et, it broke its daily low to 1.0961%, but then soared and continued to rebound in midday trading to recover most of the day's losses, despite the sharp rise in the panic index. U. S. stocks fell sharply. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note fell 1.72 basis points to 1.3616 per cent. The yield on two-year Treasuries rose 0.59 basis points to 0.1270%. The yield on the five-year Treasury note fell 0.32 basis points to 0.2484%. The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries fell 0.711 basis points to 50.580 basis points, while the spread on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries fell 1.046 basis points to 52.796 basis points.

Chicago Fed President Evans and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick said on September 3 that more information (transparency) about the outlook for the US economy is needed before it will consider supporting the Fed in issuing the latest guidelines around the path of the federal funds rate. Evans said that if he had a clearer view of the economic situation in the United States in the spring of 2021, he would know whether FOMC needs to implement unconventional easing policies like the one introduced in the last economic recovery.

Commodities fell in the inner night market. Shanghai Copper closed down 1.18%, Shanghai Aluminum closed down 0.80%, Shanghai Zinc closed down 1.83%, Shanghai lead closed down 2.19%, Shanghai Nickel closed down 2.71%, and Shanghai Tin closed down 1.53%. Glass fell by more than 4%, iron ore and SS fell by more than 2%, Zheng oil and pulp fell by more than 1%, VC and EG fell slightly, and only corn, starch and beans rose slightly.

With a sharp correction in international crude oil, the supply side has been loosened?

Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated sharply. Despite the data released by the United States on September 2, which showed a large decline in crude oil inventories, international crude oil prices still fell sharply due to concerns about weak gasoline demand in the United States and a sluggish economic recovery.

Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks stood at 498.4 million barrels, down 9.4 million barrels from a month earlier, significantly more than the market expected, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Sept. 2. At the close of the day, the October contract price of NYMEX fell 1.25 US dollars, or 2.92%, to 41.51 US dollars per barrel. On March 3, international crude oil prices continued to fall.

"in September, with the release of monthly data, the market began to be wary of the loosening of the supply side. Iraq said that if compensatory production cuts could not be completed by the end of September, Iraq would request that the compensation period be extended to the end of November. There are also reports of production in the United Arab Emirates, which makes the market worried about the loosening of the supply side. In fact, in the past three consecutive weeks, the net excess of fund holdings has been about 10,000 hands, which is a vigilant phenomenon, and funds have shown a lack of willingness to catch up in the current position. After the decline in market sentiment, it is not difficult to understand that oil prices have fallen sharply. " Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development in Haitong Futures, told Futures Daily.

Recently, international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend. Liu Jiao, an analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, believes that on the one hand, most of the oil and gas field production in the Gulf region of the United States has returned to normal; on the other hand, the demand for gasoline and distillates in the United States has declined, and the market is still worried about the recovery of crude oil demand. In addition, although inventories continue to decline, they are still sufficient for the current sluggish demand.

In the week ended August 28, EIA crude oil inventory changes actually reported a reduction of 9.362 million barrels, far more than expected reduction of 2 million barrels, and refinery stocks and gasoline stocks fell more than expected, providing short-term support to the market. Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks stood at 498.4 million barrels, down 9.4 million barrels from a month earlier, significantly more than the market expected, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Sept. 2. However, as most of the oil and gas production in the Gulf region of the United States has basically recovered, and the demand for gasoline and distillates in the United States has recorded a decline, the market is still worried about the demand for crude oil. At the same time, in the autumn, many refineries will carry out equipment maintenance, will face the situation of refinery shutdown, refinery maintenance will undoubtedly hit the demand for crude oil. " Liu Jiao said.

The EIA Weekly report was mainly affected by hurricanes, which affected crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, as well as the opening of the same onshore refineries. As a result, stocks of crude oil and oil products in the United States declined more than expected. However, in the same United States, the consumption of oil products has been suppressed due to hurricanes, so there has been a mild positive response to the inventory report data. In its own cautious market mood, US gasoline demand fell to 8.78 million b / d from 9.16 million b / d a week ago, adding to market concerns and eventually suppressing oil prices. " Yang an said.

How will the international oil price be interpreted in the future? Yang an said that after more than two months of oscillatory rise, international oil prices have formed a relatively dense trading area. Under the circumstances that funds are not willing to pursue higher prices, the demand for market adjustment has been strengthened after negative factors have depressed prices and broken the deadlock. Therefore, short-term oil prices will fall further, and a correction of 5 US dollars per barrel is expected. However, taking into account the current supply and demand structure of the crude oil market and the global situation, oil prices are less likely to fall deeply. In the future, we need to pay close attention to factors such as changes in supply in oil-producing countries, progress in vaccine development and the presidential election in the United States.

Liu Jiao also believes that there is greater pressure on international crude oil prices in the short term. But in the long run, oil prices may show a weak upward trend due to the compensatory production reduction policy of OPEC+ and the gradual recovery of demand. At present, long and short news is intertwined, and the way to resolve market contradictions mainly depends on the strength of the demand side. In the final analysis, the benefit of the supply side is due to the reduction of production due to the downturn in demand. The stimulus on the supply side is always short-lived, and the recovery of oil prices in the later period will require a substantial change in market demand. Liu Jiao said that in the later stage, we should focus on the implementation of OPEC+ compensatory production cuts, the impact of the autumn US hurricane season on production, Brexit and the recovery of demand and other factors.

Us stocks plummeted across the board, with a high correction in international precious metal prices.

Us stocks, which are hitting record highs, finally began to pull back on growing concerns about the US presidential election and rising valuations of technology stocks, with all three major US stock indexes tumbling across the board on Thursday. At one point, the Nasdaq plunged more than 5% above 12000 points, and the panic index soared. By the close, the S & P 500 was down 3.51% at 3545.06, the NASDAQ was down 4.96% at 11458.10, and the Dow was down 2.78% at 28292.73.

According to relevant media reports, Ann Berry, a partner at, Cornell Capital, said that as market value continues to hit new highs, people are slowly trying to return to fundamentals. In the early stage, due to the profit of novel coronavirus vaccine, US stocks continued to hit record highs after the impact of the epidemic. But as the gains widened, investors questioned the reasonableness of some stocks being overvalued.

Bank of America said on Wednesday that it expected the s & p 500 to fall more than 8% by the end of the year. Savita Subramanian, an analyst at the bank, said Wall Street still faces many risks. He believes that the United States is not out of the woods, and there is usually significant volatility in the months before the election.

Ron William (Ron William), market strategist and founder of RW Advisory, said asset prices could be on the brink of a sharp collapse, with us stocks falling 20 to 30 per cent or more, retesting their lowest level since march. "(ETF) inflows into S & P 500 exchange-traded funds hit an all-time low, and as the market rose, VIX also showed an interesting atypical surge, indicating potential downside hedging." He said.

Sophie Huynh, cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale, said that even if the novel coronavirus epidemic in the US stabilizes and the economy recovers, concerns about the US election are preventing investors from flocking to sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, such as energy, consumer goods and industry.

At the same time, there has also been a big pullback in international precious metal prices. International spot gold prices fell to a nearly one-week low yesterday as market participants said demand for safe-haven gold was reduced as the dollar strengthened and better-than-expected economic data boosted risk appetite.

Some market participants said that despite the short-term pressure on gold prices from the rebound of the US dollar, weak employment data and expectations of continued easing by the Federal Reserve will continue to support gold. On the data side, we will continue to focus on the trend of US non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell stressed that more attention will be paid to boosting the US labor market, indicating that non-farm data will be the most concerned economic data for the Fed in the coming years.

The US economy has continued to grow moderately since mid-July, but the negative impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on US consumption and other business activities continues to ferment, according to a report on the national economic situation released by the US Federal Reserve on the 2nd.

However, gold prices have risen about 28% since the beginning of the year as central banks adopted ultra-loose monetary policies to deal with the impact of the epidemic on the economy.

The price of black series will be tested.

Recently, the price of black varieties fluctuated at a high level, in which iron ore dropped 10 yuan / ton compared with last week, the price of scrap steel in East China has increased by 50 yuan / ton, the price of coke has remained stable, the billet has risen by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of rebar has remained stable. Through the increase, we can see that the iron ore trend is weak, while the billet trend is strong.

"on the whole, iron ore supply and demand support still exists, but the strength weakens: Port inventories are absolutely low and shipping rebounds, and demand is at a historic high." Analysts say.

He believes that at present, the overall inventory of raw material iron ore is still low, and the total amount of port inventory has stopped falling and rebounded recently, of which Australia mine inventory is hovering at a low level, which is still a small trend of destocking, and the overall inventory in Brazil is showing an increasing trend. superimposed by recent typhoons and other factors, iron ore to the port is difficult to have a large increase, so there is a strong support for iron ore prices. "in the short term, we need to pay attention to the changes in the external shipping environment, especially the shipping situation in Australia. If Australia greatly increases the shipping volume, the structural contradiction of iron ore will also be alleviated to a certain extent, which will put certain pressure on the spot iron ore market. Under the background of the low total volume of the port, whether the demand intensity can be maintained at a high level will also be a key factor in the stability of the iron ore market. The market for 2020 'gold nine silver ten' is expected to be strong, pay attention to whether the volume of transactions can be improved, from the two aspects of supply and demand, iron ore prices also ushered in a certain test. " Chen Zhao said.

"while the downstream rebar shows a simultaneous decline in supply and demand, supply is at an all-time high, inventory is on the high side, and demand continues to be exuberant." Chen Zhao said that at present, the profit level of domestic steel enterprises still exists, the downstream iron and steel enterprises have stable production, the willingness to reduce production is weak, and the thread output is at a high level at present.

In fact, the demand-side real estate industry is facing policy tightening, which has a certain impact on the current market mentality, and the transaction situation has been weakened compared with the previous period. At present, the expectation of "Jinjiu Silver Ten" is strong, and the market still has high expectations for national counter-cyclical regulation and demand intensity in peak season. Whether the current demand intensity can be maintained or even improved, Chen Zhao believes that we should also pay attention to the transaction situation of the finished wood market and the process of going to the warehouse.

"at present, the profits of downstream steel mills are low, but as long as they can maintain positive profits, the driving force for downstream steel enterprises to reduce production will be greatly reduced, which is why under the background of high raw material costs and high inventories, the fundamental reason why output continues to remain at a high level. In the case of steel overcapacity, income can only be increased by increasing production, and stopping production and reducing production will face the risk that the share of their own enterprises will be replaced. Therefore, in terms of profits and market share, downstream steel enterprises do not have enough power to take the initiative to reduce production. A high level of production will be maintained in the later stage. " Chen Zhao said that in the later stage, we should pay attention to policy changes and beware of passive production cuts exceeding expectations. At present, Tangshan and Anyang have launched short-term production restriction policies, which mainly have an impact on sintering mitigation, but have little impact on blast furnace start-up, so it has little impact on the total demand for iron ore. More is to bring a certain impact on the procurement structure of iron and steel enterprises. If the passive production reduction spreads to the blast furnace in the later stage, the scope of environmental protection production limit will be expanded, which will also have a greater impact on iron ore demand, thus bringing greater pressure on iron ore.

In Chen Zhao's view, the downstream demand is mainly around real estate and new infrastructure, of which the main demand point is still real estate. From a policy point of view, purchase restrictions have been reaffirmed in many places in July, such as Huailai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hainan and other places in Hebei Province. If the real estate industry is facing policy tightening, then the most important demand point in the downstream steel market will also exert greater pressure on the upstream, combined with the high turnover strategy of real estate. Therefore, it is necessary to put a question mark on whether the future demand can maintain the current hot intensity. We should continue to pay attention to the downstream terminal policy changes, whether there will be expanding risks in the future. At present, the new infrastructure will still maintain a certain degree of heat, especially the landing of new infrastructure projects around the urban agglomeration will, as always, bring a certain increase in demand for the steel market. Therefore, whether the demand side can ensure the demand intensity, we also need to pay attention to the actual transaction situation.

The main contract of red jujube continues to climb.

Recently, the rising price of red jujube plate has also attracted market attention. Yesterday, CJ2101, the main contract for red jujube, led the commodity market up by 2.46 per cent to close at 10015 yuan / ton. In fact, the rising channel of red jujube price started in late August, up more than 5% from the previous phased low of 9520 yuan / ton.

"it is normal for red jujube contracts to rebound in the new season. 2009 contracts have entered the delivery month, and the suppression of the far moon has been eliminated. In the new season, red dates are still growing on the trees. After Frosts Descent, they are naturally dried for 10-20 days before they can be sold under the trees. During this period, the weather will have an impact on the yield and quality, so it is difficult to estimate. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the understanding of the producing areas in Xinjiang is one-sided. And this year is a key year for poverty alleviation, the policy of supporting the market with red dates is likely to continue to be implemented, and early rumors that there are many factors such as abandoned planting and tree felling in some parts of Xinjiang are beneficial to the new season contract, so there will be a recent rebound. " Wang Bo, an analyst of Yide Futures fresh products Division, told reporters.

According to him, affected by the early stage, the sales of red dates are relatively weak this year, especially in the early days of Dragon Boat Festival and Labour Day holiday. Recently, there has been a growth rate in the Cangzhou market, and the effect of the "double section" boost remains to be seen. From a macro point of view, it will take some time for demand to recover, and the current inventory surplus is relatively high.

"in the later stage, we should focus on: the weather before the red jujube is under the tree; the yield is affected by abandoned planting and cutting trees in Xinjiang; the specific measures of supporting the market; the stock before the" double section "; the financial factors and the price of red jujube opening and weighing, and other factors. It is not clear whether the rally can continue. " Wang Bo said.

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