Home / Metal News / Copper / [SMM Metal Breakfast] Copper price is expected to be highly volatile in September * aluminum price gold, gold, silver and silver can still be expected to sign nickel and cobalt products purchase agreement.
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Copper price is expected to be highly volatile in September * aluminum price gold, gold, silver and silver can still be expected to sign nickel and cobalt products purchase agreement.
Sep 3,2020 07:30CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] tight supply and demand does not change the peak season consumption is expected to increase in September copper price volatility is strong * short-term off-season effect or lagging aluminum price gold, silver and silver can still be expected * August demand is not weak Guangdong aluminum inventory first increased and then decreased * cost demand double positive support pre-baked anode market ushered in three consecutive gains * manufacturing industry picked up significantly. Steel prices may still have upward space * September black series or differentiated operation of steel products to continue the upward iron ore rally suspended * Kakoula Copper Mine is expected to produce the first batch of copper concentrate within a year * Greenmei signed a strategic procurement agreement on nickel raw materials and cobalt by-products for power batteries.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[overnight market] the dollar index continued its rally and gold fell by more than 1%. Domestic metal green, manure, red, thin and beautiful oil fell by more than 3%.

"[macro outlook] focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States that week and the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States in August.

Today's focus

[SMM monthly topic: tight supply and demand does not change peak season consumption is expected to increase copper prices fluctuate strongly in September] after the main contract of copper in Shanghai reached a high of 53520 yuan / ton in July, it gradually cooled down and continued to fluctuate at a high level for many days. In mid-August, the center of gravity moved down and then rose slowly, but never broke the high set in July. SMM combined with the latest market in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain, consumption in the lower reaches has not yet come out of the off-season market, the domestic and foreign trade markets are both weak, domestic social inventory is still rising, and there is no significant disturbance information on the supply side, but the optimistic tone of continuous recovery in overseas markets, LME continues to go to the warehouse, bringing strong support, and copper price shocks are strong in September. "View details

[SMM monthly topic: short-term off-season effect or lagging aluminum price gold nine silver ten can still be expected] SMM believes that from the perspective of domestic fundamentals, short-term consumption has not yet got rid of the off-season effect, and the recent trend has been adjusted in stages. Considering that the current accumulation is less than expected, the stock is still below 800000 tons. As consumption recovers from September to October, a second withdrawal may be possible, and the lower position of 14200 yuan / ton still has some support. There is still a possibility of a rebound in the medium term. Pay attention to the actual feedback of consumption, the change of inventory growth and the operation of funds in September. On the macro level, we should pay attention to the progress of the epidemic, the economic stimulus measures introduced by various countries and the possible changes in global trading sentiment caused by the trade relations between the major powers of China, the United States and Europe. "View details

[SMM analysis: August demand is not weak Guangdong aluminum inventory first increases and then decreases] according to recent research, the summer off-season in July / August is not light, downstream and traders are still cautious about the Guangdong aluminum market in September, the expectation of demand is not as optimistic as July, and customers in individual industries are more pessimistic and do not expect a small peak season in the fourth quarter. However, Guangdong aluminum downstream enterprises are mainly profile-based, affected by real estate, infrastructure and other policies, in the case of domestic demand, it is difficult to see a sharp decline in consumption. Therefore, Guangdong spot supply and demand level or maintain a relative balance in September. "View details

[SMM analysis: double cost and demand supports three consecutive gains in the prebaked anode market.] in August, prebaked anode enterprises ran smoothly, and the overall operating rate of the industry rebounded due to downstream demand. according to SMM research, up to now, the production capacity of pre-baked anode equipment in domestic prebaked anode production enterprises is about 27.92 million tons, and the operating capacity is about 21 million tons, while the domestic prebaked anode output in July is about 1.7 million tons. The export volume of prebaked anode was 125800 tons in July, and the overseas demand is stable at present. The main domestic exporters say that the export of prebaked anode is stable at present, and the average operating rate of the industry in July is 77.04%. "View details

[steel recruitment Trends-Silicon Manganese] Hegang Group announced that the first round of inquiry for silicon and manganese in September was 6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month; the purchase volume was 24600 tons, a decrease of 2120 tons compared with the previous month.

[SMM Iron and Steel Analysis: manufacturing industry has obviously picked up, steel prices may still have room to rise] according to SMM research, the operating rate of blast furnace in the first week of September was 89.6%, down 0.2% from last week. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has obviously deteriorated, and the willingness of steel mills to overhaul has increased, leading to the continuous weakening of blast furnace operating rate. In the case of supply contraction and increased demand, it is expected that there is still room for steel prices to rise in the short term, but due to the uncertainty of Sino-US relations and high inventory constraints, the upward space may be limited. "View details

[SMM monthly special topic: September black series or differentiated operation of steel to continue the upward iron ore rally] looking forward to September, we think that the overall market of black series is more optimistic, steel prices are forecast to continue to rise, but the thread range may be relatively small. Because although the strength of the raw material end price continues to "tamp" the bottom support of the spot price, and there is also a slight decline in the supply side of building materials under poor profitability, when the strong demand expectation has not been realized for a long time, the inventory is still high. this will suppress thread prices to be difficult to sustain or rise sharply; while the fundamentals of hot rolling are relatively healthy relative to other varieties, superimposed steel mills are willing to push up prices and have a strong upward momentum. In addition, the impact of production restrictions is still on the news surface, the substantive documents have not been published, and the later impact remains to be seen. "View details

[SMM Steel: Lecong Hot Volume inventory broadcast (August 26-September 2)] this week Lecong Hot Volume inventory 588100 tons, month-on-month + 10800 tons, year-on-year + 5300 tons. This week Le continued tired from the hot volume, mainly due to a slight weakening of the market terminal demand performance, traders said that the recent management factory will to take goods is not strong, low acceptance of high prices. Inventory digestion is relatively general. On the supply side, the recent shipments of Wangang and Liugang to Lecong have increased slightly, while the northern steel mills are subject to inappropriate regional price differences, and shipments are still on the low side. On the whole, the current supply and demand situation in Lecong market is still relatively balanced, and there is little pressure on traders' inventory. September has entered the traditional peak season of the manufacturing industry, and prices are expected to remain stable and strong.

[SMM Steel: Hangzhou Thread inventory broadcast (August 26th-September 2nd)] this week Hangzhou thread inventory 965000 tons, month-on-month ratio-9000 tons, year-on-year + 300000 tons. Hangzhou inventories continued their decline this week, with thread inventories down 9 per cent from 96000 tons at the beginning of August. Hangzhou thread trading situation is relatively stable this week, stimulated by Tangshan production restriction news at the weekend and Monday, the market trading mood has improved, but the actual warehouse performance is not obvious. Recently, the deregulation of inventory in Hangzhou has boosted market confidence to some extent, but the speed of inventory demise is relatively slow, and the inventory level is still high compared with the same period last year. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is expected that Hangzhou thread inventory will be accelerated in September.

[Guangzhou building materials social inventory + 2.76% thread inventory + 1.24%] the total inventory of building materials in Guangzhou this week was 1.3196 million tons, an increase of 35500 tons (+ 2.76%), and + 53.17% compared with the same period last year. Among them, thread inventory was 798500 tons, an increase of 9800 tons (+ 1.24%) compared with the same period last year, + 74.19% compared with the same period last year; reel inventory was 521100 tons, an increase of 25700 tons (+ 5.19%) over the previous year, and + 29.3% compared with the same period last year. While the supply is stable, the leading role of the period snail weakens, the market atmosphere is not very active, the mood is mainly cautious, and most businesses feedback that the local shipping situation is not good recently, so inventory has accumulated slightly this week.

Semi-annual report of metal enterprises

[special topic on SMM: most car companies performed poorly in the first half of the year. Jiangling Motor and Changan Automobile are unique.] the automobile industry, which is already in a "cold winter", suffered an epidemic in the first half of 2020. According to data from the China Automobile Association, China's automobile production and sales completed 10.112 million and 10.257 million respectively in the first half of 2020, down 16.8% and 16.9% respectively from the same period last year. Under the influence of the epidemic, some car companies stop work and production, and some even go bankrupt. Recently, the performance of domestic major listed car companies in the first half of the year has been disclosed one after another. According to the performance of domestic listed car companies in the first half of the year, the net profits of most of them belonging to listed companies have declined compared with the same period last year. "View details

Semi-annual report interpretation: under the impact of the epidemic, why does the special steel industry in the same trough period turn red against the market? Affected by the epidemic, since the beginning of this year, the economies of all countries in the world have been impacted to varying degrees, and the iron and steel industry has basically maintained stable operation. however, due to the rapid release of production capacity, severe and complex external environment, high iron ore prices and other factors, the economic benefits of the industry declined sharply in the first half of the year, and the operation of the iron and steel industry still faces many difficulties and challenges. According to the data, from January to June, the operating income of the ferrous metal metallurgy and Calendering industry reached 3.18604 trillion yuan, down 3.8 percent from the same period last year, while the total profit was 84.08 billion yuan, down 40.3 percent from the same period last year. "View details

[Luoping Zinc Power's first-half net profit of-152 million yuan plummeted 2156.17% compared with the same period last year] recently, Yunnan Luoping Zinc Power Co., Ltd. released its semi-annual report for 2020. During the reporting period, Luoping Zinc Power achieved an operating income of 527.3513 million yuan, down 38.86% from 862.4929 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the current period affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the global economic downturn, zinc prices have been falling, and the company's zinc product output and sales volume have decreased compared with the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was-152 million yuan, down 2156.17% from the same period last year.

[Jianrui Wareng reported that 13.24 million yuan of cell and battery product income has restored 4GWh production capacity] recently, Jianrui Wareng released its semi-annual report for 2020. The company's revenue in the first half of the year was 16.6985 million yuan, down 92.86% from the same period last year. The net profit was a loss of 48.96 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.829 billion yuan in the same period last year. Jian Ruiwoneng said that the company's restructuring plan was successfully implemented in the first half of the year, and through judicial restructuring, the company completely eliminated its debt burden and optimized its asset-liability structure. Compared with the same period last year, the scope of the merger has changed greatly due to the bankruptcy liquidation procedures of Shenzhen Watma Battery Co., Ltd. in 2019 and the judicial auction of the equity of Daming Technology Co., Ltd. the corresponding income, costs, expenses, impairment losses, liquidated damages and so on have been greatly reduced. "View details

[Shengyang's first-half revenue of 698 million yuan rose 21.66% compared with the same period last year] recently, Shandong Shengyang Power supply Co., Ltd. released its semi-annual report for 2020. During the reporting period, the operating income of Shengyang shares in the first half of the year was 698 million yuan, up 21.66% from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 16 million yuan, up 11.87% from the same period last year. The main reason is that during the reporting period, due to the decrease in market demand due to novel coronavirus's epidemic situation, the company's operating income decreased; at the same time, due to stable prices of major raw materials, higher exchange rate, strengthening accounts receivable management and inventory management, strengthening cost control and other factors, the company's net profit increased year-on-year.

[machine numerical control to expand monocrystalline silicon business and gradually expand production capacity to buy 16700 tons of silicon] recently, Wuxi computer numerical Control Co., Ltd. released its semi-annual report for 2020. During the reporting period, the operating income was 1.084 billion yuan, an increase of 269.78% over the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 150 million yuan, an increase of 57.44% over the same period last year.

[Shanghai Silicon industry revenue increases 30.53% year-on-year, 300mm silicon wafers for integrated circuit manufacturing are under construction] recently, Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. disclosed its half-yearly report for 2020. From January to June 2020, the operating income of Shanghai silicon industry reached 854 million yuan, an increase of 30.53% over the same period last year, mainly due to the acquisition of Xinao Technology at the end of March 2019, so the financial data for the first quarter of Xinao Technology were not included in the same period in 2019; at the same time, the sales of Shanghai Xinyi 300mm wafer, a subsidiary, continued to increase.

[special electrician] the special electrician's semi-annual report for 2020 released on August 29th showed that the company realized operating income of 17.966 billion yuan during the period, an increase of 5.36% over the same period last year. Net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 920 million yuan, down 12.20% from the same period last year. Basic earnings per share were 0.2477 yuan, down 12.19% from the same period last year. According to the business plan, the special electrician strives to achieve a business income of 40 billion yuan (consolidated statement) in 2020, and completed 44.92% of the planned in the first half of the year. According to the semi-annual report, the special electrical business is mainly divided into transformers, new energy industry and supporting projects, wires and cables, coal, complete sets of power transmission and transformation projects, electricity charges, trade, and so on, accounting for 27.11%, 14.92%, 16.77%, 14.1%, 10.34%, 7.81% and 5.18% of revenue, respectively.

Important news of metals and industry

[Chilean copper production in July was 467913 tons] according to the Chilean National Bureau of Statistics ((INE)), Chilean copper production fell 4.6% in July from a year earlier to 467913 tons. From January to July, copper production increased by 1.6% to 3.3 million tons.

[Peruvian copper production basically rebounded to normal in July] Copper mining in Peru, the world's second-largest producer, has almost completely recovered from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a Peruvian government official said on Tuesday. Peru's copper production rose 9.96 per cent month-on-month to 198796 tons in July, down just 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, Jaime Galvez (Jaime Galvez), deputy minister of energy and mining, said in a report.

[Kakoula Copper Mine is expected to produce the first copper concentrate within one year] Fenhao Mining Co-Chairman Robert Friedland and Sun Yufeng (Miles Sun) announced on September 1st that the underground development of the Kakoula Copper Mine has continued to advance rapidly, digging a total of 1842 meters in August, and has so far completed more than 20.6km of underground development works, about 6.0km beyond the set target. The mixed yard currently has a reserve of about 483000 tons of ore with a copper grade of about 3.76%, including 116000 tons of high-grade ore (6.08% copper grade) and 367000 tons of medium-grade ore (3.02% copper grade). The Kakoula mine, which plans to produce its first concentrate in the third quarter of 2021, is expected to be the world's highest-grade large copper mine, with an initial annual handling capacity of 3.8 million tonnes and an average feed copper grade of more than 6 per cent in the first five years of production.

In May, the United States imported 19800 tons of waste aluminum from Canada, an increase of 16.47 percent over the previous month. In April, the import volume was 17000 tons. The United States imported 5490 tons of Canadian waste aluminum in March and 5300 tons in February. Compared with the same period last year, US imports of Canadian aluminum scrap fell 42 per cent in May from 34100 tons in the same period last year.

[Yunnan will promote green aluminum and silicon projects to be completed and put into production as soon as possible] on September 1, at a series of press conferences on accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system in Yunnan Province, Cui Gang, an inspector of the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, said that Yunnan will support the development of the green energy industry and promote relevant green aluminum and green silicon projects to be completed and put into production as soon as possible. "View details

[Yuguang Gold lead received a total of 41.337 million yuan in government subsidies] recently, Henan Yuguang Gold lead Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the company") and its subsidiaries received a total of 41337573.86 yuan in government subsidies. The company confirms the above items and classifies the types of subsidies in accordance with the relevant provisions of Enterprise Accounting Standards No. 16-Government subsidies. Government subsidies related to assets shall be included in deferred income, while government subsidies related to income shall be directly included in the profits and losses of the current period. The specific accounting treatment shall still be based on the results confirmed by the annual audit of the audit institution, and investors are invited to pay attention to the investment risk.

[Boliden: plans to increase the production capacity of its Finnish nickel smelter by 20 per cent] recently, Swedish miner Boliden (Boliden) plans to expand its Finnish nickel smelter by 40 million euros ($47.5 million), aiming to increase its raw material capacity by nearly 20% while reducing emissions by the same amount. Boliden Harjavalta's expansion projects include new concentrate dryers, improved electric furnaces and granulation capacity, and automatic tapping of molten metal. This will increase the supply capacity of raw materials from 310000 tons / year to 370000 tons / year. "View details

Greenbeauty signed a strategic procurement agreement on nickel raw materials and cobalt by-products for power batteries. Greenbeauty announced today that it recently signed a strategic procurement agreement with PTHALAMAHERAPERSADALYGEND, a subsidiary of Ningbo Liqin Resources Technology Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Liqin Resources") on the procurement of nickel hydroxide intermediate products and nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate for power batteries. "View details

[India NMDC: produces 1.62 million tons of iron ore in August] according to the (NMDC) results report of the National Mining Development Company of India, the company produced 1.62 million tons of iron ore in August 2020, with a sales volume of 1.79 million tons. The company's Chhattisgarh mine produced 1.01 million tons of iron ore with sales of 1.27 million tons, while Karnataka produced 610000 tons of iron ore with sales of 520000 tons. NMDC is the Indian government's state-controlled iron ore producer.

[development and Reform Commission: operation of the Iron and Steel Industry from January to July 2020] the National Development and Reform Commission released the operation of the iron and steel industry from January to July 2020: iron and steel output continues to grow. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the national output of pig iron, crude steel and steel products was 510.86 million tons, 593.17 million tons and 723.95 million tons respectively, up 3.2%, 2.8% and 3.7% respectively over the same period last year. Steel exports continued to decline and imports continued to grow. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to July, China exported a total of 32.88 million tons of steel, down 17.6 percent from the same period last year, and imported 9.948 million tons of steel, an increase of 49.3 percent over the same period last year. "View details

[Jinli permanent Magnet: the company is a magnet supplier of drive motors for new energy vehicles such as BYD and United Automotive Electronics] Jinli permanent Magnet said on the interactive platform that the company is the magnet steel supplier of drive motors for new energy vehicles such as BYD and United Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd., SAIC, BAIC New Energy, Ulay, and ideal Automobile are all the company's end users. The company is also a supplier of magnetic steel for auto parts of Bosch Group for many years. At present, the company has become the rare earth permanent magnet material supplier of United Automotive Electronics for Volkswagen Group's MEB pure electric platform project, as well as the designated supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials for the BEV3 global electric vehicle platform of General Motors of the United States.

Macro focus

Executive meeting of the State Council: the next step is to adhere to a prudent monetary policy of flexibility and moderation, maintain policy strength and sustainability, refrain from flooding, and guide more funds to flow to the real economy, so as to promote the smooth operation of economy and finance. Adopt the decision on the implementation of access Management of Financial holding companies. If it is clear that non-financial enterprises, natural persons, etc., hold or actually control two or more different types of financial institutions, and the total assets of the financial institutions controlled or actually controlled meet the requirements, they shall apply for the establishment of a financial holding company.

By the end of August 2020, the face value of custodian bonds for overseas institutions reached 2.461955 trillion yuan, an increase of 117.831 billion yuan, or 5.03%, over the previous month, and has increased for 21 consecutive months since December 2018.

Ministry of Commerce: we will continue to promote the construction of high-quality free trade pilot zones, give them greater autonomy in reform and opening up, form more targeted, effective and integrated achievements in institutional innovation, promote deeper reforms, implement a higher level of opening up, and take the lead in exploring the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles. Create a new highland for reform and opening up.

Central bank: on Wednesday, the reverse repurchase operation of 20 billion yuan for seven days was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 2.20%. On that day, 200 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired.

Overnight shibor was 2.0940%, down 1.00bp. Seven-day shibor was at 2.2010%, down 1.00bp. Three-month shibor was 2.6460%, up 0.60 basis points.

The German government piloted a green bond issue on September 2 and received good subscription demand, marking a landmark moment for Europe to promote climate-friendly financing. The German Ministry of Finance announced that the issuance of 6.5 billion ou yuan of 10-year government bonds was subscribed by investors of more than 33 billion ou yuan. According to media reports, Germany's green bond market in 2021 is expected to exceed $1 trillion.

Us corporate bond issuance reached $1.919 trillion in 2020, breaking the previous annual high, and the Fed's supportive measures have prompted companies to flock to the bond market to raise money.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that US jobs will grow at an annual rate of 0.4 per cent from 2019 to 2029, well below the 1.3 per cent growth rate after the Great Recession. Employment will increase by 6 million to 168.8 million over the next decade, according to a report released on Tuesday. The annualised rate of economic growth during this period is likely to slow to 1.8 per cent from 2.3 per cent in the previous decade. At the same time, productivity is expected to increase.

Terminal information

[U.S. heavy truck sales fell 26% in August from a year earlier] seasonally adjusted sales of U.S. heavy trucks in August were 395000, up from 379000 in July, but down 26% from 534000 in August 2019.

[the number of new robot-related enterprises in China has approached the whole year of 2019 in the first August of this year.] according to the data of Tianyan Professional Edition, over the past decade, the annual increase in the number of robot-related enterprises (all enterprise status) in China has continued to grow, and from 2015 to 2018, the registration growth rate of related enterprises has exceeded 40% for four consecutive years. As of Sept. 2, the number of robot-related enterprises in China was nearly 40, 000 in August before 2019, which is close to the number of robot-related enterprises in 2020.

[China Federation of things: the overall operation of the warehousing industry will still maintain a steady and positive trend] according to the website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on September 2, the warehousing index fell slightly in August, reflecting a slowdown in the development of the industry and increased short-term pressure. However, the index has remained above the rise and fall line for six consecutive months, indicating that the overall operation of the industry will remain stable and positive.

[Chenglian hui: has great potential for "Golden Nine and Silver 10" in the car market this year. According to an article issued by Chenglian hui, the sales trend under the influence of the epidemic this year showed the characteristics of a downturn at the beginning of the year. With the promotion of marketing activities such as the Beijing Auto Show at the end of September, the rebounding effect of "Golden Nine and Silver 10" should be obvious. Long-distance trips and overseas trips under the influence of the epidemic this year should still be cautious, so the craze for self-driving trips in autumn should be strong, promoting the recovery of the "Jinjiu" car market. The flood and waterlogging disaster this summer is more serious, although the price of autumn harvest rice has increased compared with that of last year, the effect of farmers' autumn harvest under the influence of flood is not very strong, and the effect of buying cars in county and township markets in autumn may not be strong.

[China Automobile Dealer inventory early warning Index for August 2020 is 52.8%] on August 31, 2020, the latest "inventory early warning Index Survey of China Automobile Dealers" released by the China Automobile Circulation Association (VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index)) showed that the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in August 2020 was 52.8%, down 9.9% from the previous month and 0.5% from the same period last year. The inventory early warning index is above the boom and bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry has improved, but it is still in a depressed range.

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