SMM News: in the early morning of the 2nd, U. S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, the Dow rose more than 200 points, the S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq hit new highs. Fed governor Brainard said the economy faces considerable uncertainty and still needs fiscal and monetary support. The US ISM manufacturing index in August reached its highest level since January 2019.
The Dow closed up 215.61 points, or 0.76%, at 28645.66; the Nasdaq was up 164.21 points, or 1.39%, at 11939.67; and the S & P 500 was up 26.34 points, or 0.75%, at 3526.65.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose as high as 11945.72, while the S & P rose as high as 3528.03, both hitting new intraday highs.
Technology stocks led the market higher, with Zoom up more than 40 per cent and Netflix up more than 5 per cent and apple up 4 per cent. Wal-Mart closed 6.3% higher, leading Dow stocks higher.
In the past August, the three major US stock indexes all recorded big gains. The Dow rose 7.57%, its biggest August gain since 1984. The s & p 500 rose 7%, its biggest gain since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 9.6%, the biggest August increase since 2000.
In addition to technology stocks, revived economic concept stocks such as cruise operators, airlines and hotels also gained a lot in August. Royal Caribbean and MGM Resorts are both up about 40 per cent, while FedEx and GAP are up 30 per cent respectively. Delta Airlines and Norwegian Cruise also led the S & P 500 in August.
Investors appeared to be snapping up the split between Apple and Tesla, which rose 3 per cent and 12 per cent respectively on Monday. Shares of Zoom Video soared after the videoconferencing company reported a surge in second-quarter results, with revenue more than tripling from the same period last year.
Mark Hackett, head of investment research at Nationwide, said in a report: "while growth and momentum sectors are still the main drivers of stock market gains, value and cycle have begun to catch up."
Fed Brainard: the economy faces considerable uncertainty and still needs fiscal and monetary support
Speaking at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday on the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework, Fed Governor Brainard (Lael Brainard) said the economy faces considerable uncertainty and still needs fiscal and monetary support.
Mr Brainard said the US economy faced "considerable uncertainty" in the coming months and called on central banks and fiscal policymakers to continue to provide support to help the country recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
"Financial support is still critical to sustaining many families and businesses," Brainard stressed. The timing and scale of such support are key factors in the outlook. It is important for monetary policy to shift from stable to loose. "
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell announced a new monetary policy framework to adopt a more relaxed attitude towards inflation to solve the problem of low inflation for many years. This shift means that the Fed will allow the job market to heat up, and price pressures can float higher without triggering a rise in interest rates.
In its revised statement on long-term goals, the Fed also shifted its focus to the "deficiency" of employment maximization, and the Fed now calls employment maximization a "broad and inclusive goal". As long as price pressures remain contained, this will give the Fed more room to achieve low unemployment.
"this change means that the committee will develop a monetary policy to minimise the welfare costs of underemployment and not withdraw support early," Mr Brainard said. I would expect the committee to adapt to rather than offset inflationary pressures of moderately higher than 2 per cent in the process of opportunistic reflation. "
To make up for the fact that inflation has remained below 2% in the past, as it has been for most of the past decade, the fed will now seek to average inflation of 2% over a period of time and explicitly tolerate moderate inflation above that level.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida said Monday that inflation below the 2% target risks gradually lowering public expectations of future price pressures. He said yesterday that the Fed would not raise interest rates simply because unemployment had fallen, underscoring the Fed's easing stance.
The ISM manufacturing index in August reached its highest level since January 2019.
The US ISM manufacturing index was 56 in August, up from 54.2 in July, the Institute for supply Management ((ISM)) said on Tuesday. This is the highest level since January 2019, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.
An ISM manufacturing index above 50 indicates that manufacturing, which accounts for 11 per cent of the US economy, is expanding. Some economists had predicted that the index would rise to 54.5 in August.
But the continued improvement in US manufacturing has been uneven as the epidemic has shifted spending from equipment in service industries such as restaurants and bars to goods such as household appliances.
According to the sub-index of the ISM manufacturing index in August, the new orders index rose to 67.6 in August from 61.5 in July, the highest level since December 2017.
The employment index rose to 46.4 from 44.3 in July, indicating that factory employment is still contracting despite continued improvement last month. Orders from factories are rising, but the job market is still struggling to rebound, in line with economists' view that the job market is losing momentum after companies reopened in May.
Investors are waiting for Friday's important non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show that non-farm payrolls continued to rebound in August. Economists currently surveyed by Dow Jones expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 1.255 million in August.
"as far as the US job market is concerned, it is important to keep in mind that the Fed's new inflation targeting policy may affect the market's assessment of non-farm payrolls data," Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said in a report.
"usually a good jobs report raises concerns that the Fed may tighten monetary policy to actively deal with inflation and economic overheating," she said. That concern has receded as the Fed adjusts its inflation target. "
The Fed announced a major policy shift last week, allowing inflation and employment to be temporarily above target.
In terms of European economic data, the latest data released in the day show that manufacturing in Germany and Italy strengthened last month, but Spain and France are still in trouble. German manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in nearly two years, while Italy recorded its highest manufacturing PMI since the summer of 2018.
Overall manufacturing PMI in the euro zone was able to remain in the growth sector, at 51.7, but down slightly from 51.8 in July. This shows a modest recovery. Manufacturing in France and Spain returned to contraction, reminding that a recovery in the market economy is still not guaranteed.
Figures released by Eurostat also show a rise in unemployment in the euro zone. In fact, unemployment is rising across Europe, another example of how the coronavirus epidemic has hit the economy. Unemployment rose by 336, 000 in the European Union in July and by 344000 in the euro zone. That led to a sharp rise in the eurozone unemployment rate from 7.7 per cent in June to 7.9 per cent in July, the highest since 2017.
Trump Jr. Mo: 's re-election probability rises. Investors should be prepared in advance.
The US general election is getting closer and closer, and the opinion polls seem to have changed a lot. Gen Chase (100.14,-0.05,-0.05) warned that investors should prepare for Trump's rising chances of winning re-election.
Trump's approval rating rose after the Republican National Convention, while Biden's fell, according to a new Morning Consult poll. It is reported that Trump at the convention will quell violent protests of "law and order" as one of the campaign themes.
Since then, Biden's lead has narrowed to 6 percentage points, the smallest gap in nearly two months. Previously, the gap was as high as 12 percentage points. This shift has made the situation of the general election even more uncertain.
(Marko Kolanovic) Kranovich, a strategist at gen Chase, believes that there are two reasons behind Trump's support, which first fell sharply and then rebounded: first, the impact of the degree of violence in the protests on public opinion and voting patterns; second, voters who support Trump are more likely to reject the poll bias caused by opinion polls.
He said that according to previous research, if people's view of the protests changed from peaceful to violent, the Democratic Party's approval rating in the opinion polls could fall by 5 to 10 percentage points.
Biden's shrinking edge in the polls is reminiscent of the 2016 election, when the vote count seemed to be in Mrs Clinton's favor. Although Hillary Clinton won the votes of millions of people, Trump won the result of the state electoral college vote that decided the outcome of the election.
'of course, a lot more could happen in the next 60 days, and the current situation could change again, 'Mr. Kolanovic said. For now, he believes the momentum good for Trump will continue, while most investors are still preparing for Biden's victory. Unless Democrats change their position on the demonstrations, which seems unlikely, senior Democrats are still calling for day-to-day demonstrations.
Kolanovich said that important factors driving the election in the coming weeks include the development of the novel coronavirus epidemic, and the data also show that the number of new coronavirus infections in the United States every day is also related to Trump's approval rating. As the vote approaches, the epidemic seems likely to subside.
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