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[SMM monthly Outlook] the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel is expected to hit the high at the beginning of the year next week. 110000 integer mark is expected.
Jul 31,2020 22:46CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 31: looking back in July, the overall upside of Shanghai Nickel was relatively large this month, with a rise and fall of more than 2% in several trading days. On July 28, Shanghai Nickel reached this month's highest point of 112150 yuan / ton. As of July 31, the closing price was 110440 yuan / ton, up 8200 yuan / ton compared with 102240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 8%.

In terms of the abnormal market, on the morning of July 24, non-ferrous metals collectively floated red, with half of the varieties rising more than 1%, of which Shanghai Nickel was better, rising more than 3% alone. However, in the afternoon, Shanghai Nickel continued to dive, falling as low as 106290 yuan / ton, with the increase narrowing to around 2%. By the end of the day, Shanghai Nickel was at 107620 yuan / ton, up 2.2% on the day. On the news side, Musk, chief executive of the electric car manufacturer, said: "if you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will provide you with a huge contract for a long time." Musk called on nickel miners to increase nickel mining, raising expectations of demand for nickel for new energy, while the recent fall in the dollar index has also supported metal prices.

On the spot side, the weekly average price of SMM1 nickel is 110500 yuan / ton this week, the weekly average price of SMM Jinchuan nickel is 110800 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price of Russian nickel is 110220 yuan / ton. Since Monday, traders have turned to Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract quotations, and there has been little fluctuation in the discount rate during the week. Russo Nickel's mainstream quotation for Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract remains stable at around 300yuan / ton, while the market only has a lower price for the non-deliverable Russian board. Jinchuan Nickel rising Water also remains at 300yuan / ton for Shanghai Nickel 2009 contract, and some first-hand agents can increase 200yuan / ton shipments. In terms of transactions, as nickel prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, downstream users' willingness to purchase was suppressed, so the turnover in the five trading days of the week was relatively light. In terms of nickel beans, there were certain transactions within the week, but due to the recent lack of import replenishment, the supply of goods in circulation decreased, and the nickel bean discount gradually narrowed to around 1000 yuan / ton. It is expected that while the downstream nickel futures are still expected to strengthen, it will be difficult for the spot market to pick up, and the holder will continue to maintain the quotation, waiting for the nickel price correction or rigid demand customers to enter the market.

This week, the main 2010 contract trend of Shanghai Nickel showed a concussive upward trend, opening at 107510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, during which it failed to hit 112000 yuan / ton twice, but the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel continued to rise along the 5-day moving average, closing temporarily at 110370 yuan / ton at the end of Friday. The weekly increase was 2860 yuan / ton, or 2.66%. Although the macro aspect is still strained by Sino-US relations this week, the heightened geopolitical risks have led to a continued rebound in risk aversion in the market, and precious metals have also dived back for a time, Shanghai Nickel has remained multi-oriented in terms of technology. The MACD red column continues to enlarge, and the main bulls are always present, so the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel is gradually effectively sitting at the 110000 integer mark. It is expected that next week, Shanghai nickel is still expected to hit the high of 112500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

This month, overseas nickel mining companies have released their second-quarter financial reports, which have been sorted out and updated by SMM. For details, please click: "[SMM Summary] second-quarter results summary of major overseas nickel mining enterprises (updating)

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