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-32.9% the worst in the history of GDP in the second quarter of the United States! Trump proposes to postpone the US election! Crude oil suddenly plunged and silver plummeted.
Jul 31,2020 09:41CST
translation
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: Beijing July 30th evening, the United States second-quarter GDP initial value report released. According to the data, the initial annualized rate of real GDP in the United States fell by 32.9% in the second quarter, the worst since the release of quarterly GDP data in 1947. At the same time, the initial quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the United States recorded an initial rate of-34.6% in the second quarter, the biggest drop in history.

U.S. president Donald Trump proposed on social media on Thursday to postpone the November election until voters can safely vote.

Trump tweeted, "A national mail vote (not absentee voting, which is good), but the 2020 election will be the most inaccurate and deceptive election in history." This will be very embarrassing for the United States. Postpone the election until people can vote properly, at ease and safely? "

U. S. stocks were mixed on Thursday, with poor economic data weighing on the market. By the close, the Dow was down 0.85% at 26313.65, the Nasdaq was up 0.43% at 10587.81, and the S & P 500 was down 0.38% at 3246.22.

Affected by factors such as the deterioration of the outlook for US economic recovery, international oil prices suddenly plunged in intraday trading on Thursday, with both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil falling more than 5%, narrowing the closing decline. Ice Brent crude oil futures closed at US $39.92 per barrel, down 3.27 per cent at, NEMEX WTI crude oil futures, down 1.85 per cent at US $42.94 per barrel.

As of Thursday's close, COMEX gold futures closed 0.5 per cent lower at $1966.8 an ounce. COMEX silver futures closed 3.94 per cent lower at $23.362 an ounce in September. Market participants believe that investor profit-taking is the main reason for the decline in precious metals on the day.

The US GDP recorded the biggest drop in the second quarter, and Trump proposed to postpone the US general election in 2020.

On the evening of July 30th in Beijing, the initial GDP report for the second quarter of the United States was released. According to the data, the initial annualized rate of real GDP in the United States fell by 32.9% in the second quarter, the worst since the release of quarterly GDP data in 1947, and is expected to fall by 34.5%. At the same time, the initial quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the United States recorded an initial rate of-34.6% in the second quarter, the biggest drop in history.

For this data, analysts say, it shows the extent of the economic damage caused by the U. S. government's order to shut down the economy and stay at home. The orders are designed to slow the spread of novel coronavirus, which brought a sudden halt to a long period of economic expansion in the United States.

Although employment, spending and production have improved since the restart in May and the implementation of massive federal stimulus measures, the recent surge in COVID-19 cases has curbed the pace of recovery in the US economy.

In addition, as the epidemic has dealt a severe blow to consumer and business spending, the US economy has suffered its worst contraction since the Great Depression, while the rise in COVID-19 cases threatens the fledgling road to economic recovery. The surge in confirmed cases, coupled with a $3 trillion fiscal stimulus package that expires on Saturday, has also led to a continued rise in layoffs.

In fact, the latest initial jobless claims report released by the Labor Department on the same day showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 1.434 million in the week ended July 25, the second consecutive week of increase and a four-week high.

Analysts said that although the number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week to July 25 was better than expected, it was still higher than the previous week. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits has also increased significantly again, indicating that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is on the rise.

On July 30, local time, US President Donald Trump proposed on a social platform to postpone the November election until voters can safely vote.

Trump tweeted, "A national mail vote (not absentee voting, which is good), but the 2020 election will be the most inaccurate and deceptive election in history." This will be very embarrassing for the United States. Postpone the election until people can vote properly, at ease and safely? " U. S. stocks were mixed on Thursday, with poor economic data weighing on the market. By the close, the Dow was down 0.85% at 26313.65, the Nasdaq was up 0.43% at 10587.81, and the S & P 500 was down 0.38% at 3246.22.

The international oil price suddenly plummeted.

Since July, with the gradual opening of the global society and the normalization of production and life, the fundamentals of supply and demand of crude oil have been obviously repaired. However, the continued fermentation of the COVID-19 epidemic and the narrowing of the decline in crude oil supply have led to a further weakness in oil prices.

On July 30th, affected by factors such as the deterioration of the outlook for US economic recovery, international oil prices suddenly plunged in intraday trading, with both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil falling more than 5%, narrowing the closing decline. Ice Brent crude oil futures closed at US $39.92 per barrel, down 3.27 per cent at, NEMEX WTI crude oil futures, down 1.85 per cent at US $42.94 per barrel.

According to Futures Daily, data released by the US Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) on Wednesday showed that EIA crude oil stocks decreased by 10.611 million barrels in the week ended July 24, with an expected decrease of 171000 barrels and an increase of 4.892 million barrels in the previous value. But at the same time, inventories of gasoline and distillates, including diesel and heating oil, rose in the US, indicating uncertainty about the recovery in fuel demand.

In addition, considering that US shale oil production has recently stabilized at 11.1 million barrels per day, without further decline, Li Wanying, a senior analyst at the East China Sea Futures Research Institute, told reporters that to a certain extent, this reflects that the shale oil industry chain is waiting for recovery after the oil price center has shifted upward. In fact, from the perspective of the industry chain, she believes that shale oil companies will gradually enter a period of adjustment and repair in the coming month, it is difficult to have a further decline in production, and the number of Baker Hughes drilling is not expected to decline significantly.

She also said that from the perspective of price difference, since the beginning of this year, affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, global social activities have stagnated, and oil product consumption has dropped sharply, followed by the continuous compression of cracking price differentials. Due to the spread of the epidemic in foreign countries, there is still great uncertainty in the demand for crude oil and oil products, and it is difficult to completely reverse the trend of accumulation. The latest figures show that US gasoline inventories are 247 million barrels, 16 million barrels higher than the average of the last five years; similarly, diesel stocks have remained high at 178 million barrels, which explains why the current cracking spread is still below the 2019 average. Recently, the cracking price spread has relatively rebounded, but due to the epidemic, it is still difficult to reach the peak season level in 2019 as a whole.

She believes that given that the current spot prices of crude oil in the Middle East have broken through previous highs, and the level of 40 US dollars per barrel can basically cover the production costs of most countries, under the premise that the demand outlook is not clear, the completion of future production cuts may be reduced.

In fact, recent news and data have proved that Iraq, the second-largest oil producer of OPEC, has yet to meet the target of the OPEC-led production reduction agreement so far in July, and its current export volume is much higher than the loading plan in July.

Saudi Aramco is expected to cut the official price of its Arab light crude sold to Asia in September by 48 cents a barrel for the first time in four months, according to a survey of eight traders and refineries in the region.

In Li Wanying's view, the official price of Saudi Aramco is likely to fall, reflecting the general mentality of oil-producing countries such as OPEC. It is expected that the completion rate of production reduction in the coming months may be difficult to continue the previous high, and the struggle for market share will fall back into the game. Investors are advised to continue to pay attention to the actual adjustment of Saudi OSP.

In addition, Li Wanying also suggested that investors should pay close attention to changes in the macro situation. Recently, Sino-US relations are relatively tense, and the global macro situation is volatile, which may have a short-term impact on crude oil prices; in addition, whether extreme weather, such as the tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, will disturb oil production is worth tracking continuously.

In the view of French oil giant Total, as the global economic outlook is not optimistic, international crude oil prices may usher in a new round of decline in the second half of the year. Brent is expected to fall back to $35 a barrel by the end of the year, after which the average price for the whole year of 2021 will be only $40, followed by a long-term equilibrium range of $60, but global demand may not return to its pre-outbreak peak until 2025.

"if we see a blockade or a partial blockade, traffic will be disproportionately hit. Transportation accounts for 2/3 of oil demand. The rebound in demand is likely to be hit at a time when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies are preparing to increase production in August, increasing global production by about 1.5 million barrels a day. " Total says.

High level adjustment of precious metals

When it comes to the most volatile commodities in the market these days, the first thing that comes to mind is probably precious metals. Both gold and silver have fluctuated greatly in recent days.

As of Thursday's close, COMEX gold futures closed 0.5 per cent lower at $1966.8 an ounce. COMEX silver futures closed 3.94 per cent lower at $23.362 an ounce in September.

For Thursday's decline in precious metal prices, Green Dahua Futures Precious Metals analyst Liu Yang said that there are three main reasons: first, the overall profit-taking of early long positions. Including long positions in precious metals involved in unilateral strategy and arbitrage strategy, for early investors, it has reached a relatively suitable closing exposure in recent trading days; second, the monthly change of the main contract of overseas COMEX gold has led to the spread of cash basis once expanded to more than US $20 / oz, and the convergence strategy of cash spread indirectly affects the price trend of precious metals. Third, due to the large increase in the previous period, from the point of view of the expected price trend, there may be a certain adjustment demand in the short term.

Liu Yang believes that the probability of continued strong performance of precious metal prices in the medium term is still relatively large, but the price increase space is expected to be limited by marginal effects.

Liu Yang suggested that investors should be cautious about the trading opportunities of unilateral investment strategies when participating in investment, pay more attention to the opportunities of precious metal price-related arbitrage strategies, and avoid unnecessary investment risks such as "betting" on the market. "in the medium term, the suggestion is to pay attention to the development and changes of the epidemic in winter, and to flexibly adjust the investment strategies and ideas of precious metals in the mid-term period according to the changes of the external macro environment." Liu Yang said.

According to Futures Daily reporter, Bank of America recently raised the valuation of gold for the next 18 months, thinking that it will rise to 3000 US dollars / ounce.

Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai Nickel showed strong performance.

July 30 night trading session, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai nickel prices although there has been a certain correction, but on the whole, the recent performance is relatively strong.

For this, Zheng Jingyang, an analyst at South China Futures Metals, believes that the recent rise in Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai nickel prices is mainly due to the continued weakness of the US dollar as a result of the Fed's loose monetary policy, and abundant market liquidity makes funds continue to be enthusiastic about non-ferrous metals. In particular, the price of nickel, which did not follow the strength of other non-ferrous metals in the early stage, led to its relatively low price, coupled with Tesla's CEO Musk's call for nickel miners to increase nickel mining, which makes the market expect a big increase in demand for nickel from new energy vehicles and a stronger willingness to be long. As for the rise in aluminum prices, in his view, it is mainly due to the boost of low inventories, the traditional downstream consumption off-season, aluminum demand has not significantly decreased, so the market is more enthusiastic.

Zheng Jingyang said that taking into account the current acceleration of new aluminum production capacity, but the actual implementation of the increase in production will be relatively limited, so the supply pressure will not appear in the short term; and after August will enter the traditional peak demand season for aluminum, when the real estate back-end and power grid investment pull, demand will be more optimistic, inventory is expected to continue to decline, aluminum prices will still be strong in the future.

In this regard, Galaxy Futures Commodities Department of non-ferrous metals researchers agree. In his view, even if there is a short-term adjustment in aluminum prices, the range is limited. However, the current macro environment is not stable, and if Sino-US relations remain tense, risk aversion in financial markets may rise again, which may adversely affect the trend of aluminum prices. "investors are advised to pay more attention to changes in macro sentiment." should not chase too much.

As for nickel, Zheng Jingyang said that in view of the gradual increase in the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and the continuous commissioning of the Ferro Nickel project in Indonesia, the overall supply of nickel is relatively loose, which will limit the upward space for nickel prices to a certain extent. However, in the context of the overall liquidity of the market is still relatively loose, it is expected that the price of nickel is still easy to rise and difficult to fall.

In this regard, Galaxy Futures Commodities Department of non-ferrous metals researchers have different views. The researcher believes that with the continuation of the increment of Ferro nickel in Indonesia, the large probability of domestic ferronickel decreases slightly, and the increment of domestic 300 series stainless steel on the demand side slows down. The extrusion of Ferro-Nickel to pure nickel makes it possible for overseas pure nickel to have hidden inventory, and the global supply and demand is in surplus in the third quarter. The current macro mood deviates from the fundamentals, and the resonance between the macro and the fundamentals may lead to a sharp fall.

Zheng Jingyang believes that even if the whole of non-ferrous metals is still strong, high prices are also brewing risks. Under the current circumstances, he suggested that attention should be paid to whether there will be a sudden shift in macro-monetary policy, whether there will be friction between China and the United States again, and whether the epidemic will break out again. "if the above situation occurs, it is recommended to adjust the strategy in time to avoid risks." Zheng Jingyang suggested.

Tianjiao rushes high and falls back.

On July 30, Tianjiao fell high. Dai Gaoze, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Energy, said that from the drastic changes in position transactions, it can be seen that the market is mainly driven by strong funds, but the flow of funds is relatively fast, and the sharp reduction in positions yesterday afternoon resulted in a sharp return of gains.

As far as he knows, there are three main reasons for bulls: first, emotionally, most of the other varieties with a large decline in the early Nenghua plate have upward repair, but Tianjiao's overall rebound is not strong and is still at a low price level; Second, the upstream Thailand production areas have more impact on yield release, while Yunnan production areas in China are still in diseases and insect pests, the early drought tree recovery period yield is also less, the supply of light-colored glue is relatively tight, and the alternative indicators have not yet landed. The inventory of delivered goods is also significantly lower than that of last year, and the delivery pressure is lighter; third, downstream tire export orders have been restored to a certain extent. I have heard that some orders have been issued at the end of the month, and the inventory pressure of tire factories has been alleviated to a certain extent. There is a willingness to step up production and replenish raw materials before arrangements such as power restriction and maintenance in August.

As for the main reason for the sharp reduction in positions yesterday afternoon, in his view, after the sharp rise in Tianjiao futures prices, the basis has obviously widened in the past two days, and the willingness to hold positions in arbitrage positions has increased certain pressure on prices to continue to rise. In addition, the current fundamentals of supply and demand have not improved significantly, port inventories have not been significantly de-capitalized, the expectation of short-term oversupply has not changed significantly, and the fundamentals have limited support for the rise of the market.

However, considering that short-term raw material prices are still relatively strong, some standard glue processing is still in a state of loss, and there is still some support at the lower level, Dai Gaoze believes that Tianjiao is unlikely to hit a new low in the future. "however, after entering August, fundamental supply and demand expectations are still weak, spot trading sentiment has not recovered significantly after the price rise, for short-term market expectations, if there is no strong capital promotion, we maintain a weak adjustment attitude." Dai Gaoze said.

As for the long-term market, especially in the fourth quarter, Dai Gaoze is relatively optimistic.

He said that at present, the price of raw materials in Thailand is OK, and the willingness to tapping rubber is strong. In the future, the output of glue in domestic production areas will continue to pick up, and the pressure on port inventory may go up further. The tight supply of domestic rubber will also be repaired in the near future.

"in addition, in the downstream market, the supporting demand for the substantial increase in sales of heavy trucks in the early stage has recovered better, but under the influence of limited production and maintenance by manufacturers in August, production and marketing will weaken to a certain extent, making it difficult to maintain the trend of high growth in the early stage. The demand for replacement remains stable, but some first-line brand promotions squeeze the production and sales of domestic manufacturers. At the same time, there are still certain repeated risks in overseas outbreaks, and export orders are expected to recover slowly. In the short and medium term, the recovery of supply pressure is greater than that of demand recovery, and there is still room for consolidation and adjustment. " He thinks.

According to Dai Gaoze, for the long term, the special situation of this year is that concentrated milk diverts the whole latex raw materials, the total latex production of RU delivery products has been significantly reduced, and the speed of old glue removal is also faster. after the old glue is released from the warehouse in 2019, the delivery pressure for the 2101 contract will be very low, and the whole latex may come out of a relatively independent market, and the regression logic of previous years may not be established this year. In addition, vaccine research and development is good to spread frequently, and if there is a large-scale launch of the vaccine in the fourth quarter, the obvious recovery of consumer demand in the global community will also bring a strong pull to the downstream. If the industry returns to the normal cycle of supply and demand in previous years, the growth rate of output will gradually enter the cycle of slowing down, so the long-term market is worthy of investors' attention.

Under the current circumstances, Dai Gaoze suggested that investors pay attention to the changes in the pace of the market that may be brought about by the domestic withdrawal of the treasury, and look for opportunities for the future pullback low to remain stable and intervene again. In addition, we can continue to pay attention to the impact of weather changes in domestic and foreign producing areas on output. The generation of typhoons this year is less than that of the same period in previous years, and strong typhoons may bring changes in supply in the future. The impact of macro factors such as the world trade pattern and the control of the global epidemic on the demand side also needs to be monitored continuously. Short-term funds, emotions cause high volatility risk, investors can combine options and other tools, through reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of risk.

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