SMM7 March 30: there were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:40, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.1%, Lunxi was flat, Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.1%, Lunnickel fell nearly 0.2%. Domestically, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 2.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.6%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.3%. In the domestic market, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 2.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1.6%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.3%. Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.9%. On zinc, the Fed said it would extend its seven emergency loan programs by three months to December 31 to support economic activity during the coronavirus pandemic. Affected by optimistic expectations of monetary easing and the economic stimulus package for US stocks, the recovery in macro sentiment boosted zinc prices. SMM believes that, from a fundamental point of view, the current galvanizing terminal orders have improved, superimposed die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide export orders have improved, driving the removal of social inventory, zinc consumption gradually recovered in the second half of the year, long-term consumption is worth looking forward to. Overall, in the context of macro water release superimposed on the recovery of long-term consumption, in the medium to long term, zinc prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall.
[SMM brief Review] Zinc in Shanghai is up nearly 3%. The price of zinc is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the medium and long term.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 0.2%, hot coil rose nearly 0.3%, stainless steel rose nearly 1.3%, coke fell nearly 0.2%, coking coal fell nearly 1.2%, iron ore rose nearly 0.5%, hot roll inventory in Shanghai this week 299600 tons, month-on-month compared to-38100 tons, year-on-year-232500 tons, inventory decreased significantly. According to SMM, the recent actual warehouse processing volume has no obvious signs of improvement, which means that the sharp reduction in warehouse is not driven by the improvement of terminal demand. Mainly due to the flood, the water transportation of the Yangtze River has been blocked, the transportation cycle of some resources has been prolonged, and the superimposed resources from the north to the south are still on the way, so the actual storage volume has decreased compared with the previous period, leading to a significant decline in inventory this week. However, it is worth noting that plums are basically coming out in various regions, the floods are gradually fading, and the affected resources will reach the market one after another. And according to SMM statistics, resources from the north to the south have increased and gradually reached the market this week, so it is expected that inventory in the market will accumulate in the future.
The last period of crude oil rose nearly 0.5%. In terms of data, according to data released by the US EIA, except for the strategic reserve, the commercial crude oil inventory of the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended July 24, refined oil inventory basically met expectations, and gasoline inventory growth exceeded expectations.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai silver rose slightly, and COMEX futures rose for the ninth day in a row on Wednesday, closing at a new high. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reiterated its plan to keep interest rates near zero until the economy improves further and gold prices rise further in after-hours trading. In a statement issued after the two-day meeting, the Fed noted that economic activity and employment had "rebounded in recent months" and renewed its commitment to use various tools to support further economic improvement.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Brief comments on SMM:
Copper: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6476 US dollars / ton, up 0.11%. The trading volume was 11000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2515 to 318000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2009 contract closed at 52010 yuan / ton, up 0.25%, the trading volume was 66000 lots, and the long positions increased by 2773 lots to 123000 lots. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and promised to use "all tools" to support the economy and keep interest rates near zero. The dollar index rose to 93.17, its lowest level since May 2018, and monetary easing pushed commodity asset prices higher again. Spot gold rose more than 1 per cent at one point, and base metals generally rose. In addition, the three major indexes of US stocks rose more than 1% last night, A shares rebounded sharply during the day, and improved investor sentiment led to positive copper prices. Spot, the recent offer is relatively deadlocked, the overall market turnover is weak, it is expected that the situation will continue today. It is expected to be 6480-6540 US dollars / ton for Lun Copper and 51900-52300 yuan / ton for Shanghai Copper today. It is expected that the spot water will rise by 30-90 yuan per ton today.
Aluminum: yesterday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14500 yuan / ton in the morning, opened shaken down, low to 14400 yuan / ton, and then rebounded slightly to about 14450 yuan / ton; afternoon price trend is strong, wipe out the decline before noon, in the 14500 yuan / ton first line adjustment, closing at 14505 yuan / ton, trading volume increased to 149000 hands, position increased to 124000 hands, daily close in small Zhongyang. Shanghai Aluminum has a total position of 385000 lots and a trading volume of 272000 lots. Yesterday night trading Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract opened at 14500 yuan / ton, opened continuously pulled up, the high point to 14680 yuan / ton, and then fluctuated in the range of 14620-14680 yuan / ton, closing at 14655 yuan / ton. The overall macro aspect is too much, there is no obvious change in inventory, spot still has a supporting role in futures prices, the recent two trading days position increased significantly, some funds re-enter the market. It is expected that today's Shanghai Aluminum 2009 contract operating range of 14400-14800 yuan / ton.
Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15515 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead briefly climbed to a high of 15650 yuan / ton. later, affected by the overall decline of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead fell rapidly, and then the selling pressure slowed, and Shanghai lead stopped falling. During this period, the low reached 15485 yuan / ton, finally reported at 15605 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.84%, the domestic market, fundamentals are expected to be good, the spot market supply is slightly tight, to support the high oscillation of the market.
Zinc: overnight, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18720 yuan / ton, briefly arranged along the daily moving average at the beginning of the day, hit an intraday high of 18895 yuan / ton, and then the outer disk led Shanghai zinc to bear the pressure and down, falling step by step to 18480 yuan / ton, short sellers stopped at a low level and left the market, Shanghai zinc revised up and fluctuated all the way up, closing up at 18780 yuan / ton, up 405 yuan / ton, up 2.2%, and the trading volume increased to 168170 hands. Position increased by 398 hands to 113448 hands. The positive pillar was recorded in Shanghai zinc overnight, jumping away from the multiple arrangement pattern of the lower averages, the upper Bollinger Road was suppressed, and the opening of KDJ index was expanded. The long-term strength of overnight funds shows to promote the strong operation of Shanghai zinc, refresh the recent high level, under the background of macro water release, domestic foreign trade and foreign investment are gradually stabilized, and long-term terminal consumption is expected to support the upward trend of Shanghai zinc, but geopolitics increases short-term risk. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the price of domestic Shuangyan zinc will rise by 90,100 yuan / ton in August.
Nickel: the Federal Reserve maintained loose expectations, the dollar index continued to fall to a two-year low at night, and non-ferrous metals rose. Overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 main contract opened at 109550 yuan / ton, at the beginning of trading, Shanghai Nickel pressure 110000 mark, the center of gravity around 109800 yuan / ton narrow fluctuation. Then the short positions fell sharply, and the bulls followed up. Shanghai Nickel broke through the 110000 mark and fluctuated all the way up to 110500 yuan / ton. after short-term consolidation, the reduction of short positions at the end of the day once again led Shanghai Nickel to rise to 110740 yuan / ton. compared with the previous trading day, the settlement price rose 1240 yuan / ton, or 1.13%, the turnover was 421000, and the position increased by 11000 to 146000. Overnight, Shanghai nickel closed at the Zhongyang column, the support level under the K column is near the 5-day moving average, the trend of the Bol line is parallel upward, and the position of the upper rail position of 111500 yuan / ton is today's pressure level. Today, we will pay attention to the pressure situation of this pressure level.
Tin: Shanghai tin trend: the main 2010 contract of Shanghai tin opened at 146720 yuan / ton last night, the highest was 148170 yuan / ton, and the lowest was 146550 yuan / ton. It closed at 146800 yuan / ton, down 770 yuan / ton, or 0.52%. 24746 hands were traded and 25261 positions were held, a decrease of 575 hands. Yesterday, the main tin 2010 contract in Shanghai opened at 146720 yuan / ton, and the opening price fluctuated widely, hitting the intraday high of 148170 yuan / ton above. Then the concussion range narrowed somewhat, the horizontal market was arranged, and the center of gravity gradually moved down slightly. Below hit the lowest point of 146550 yuan / ton in the night market, closing at 146800 yuan / ton. It is a Xiaoyang line, the physical part is above all moving averages, and the upper pressure level is expected to be around 148000 yuan / ton.
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