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[SMM Metal Breakfast] most metals closed up * exports of aluminum cables increased by 15.1% in June compared with the same period last year * demand is expected to lead to a volatile rise in zinc prices.
Jul 29,2020 06:52CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] most metals closed up * exports of aluminum wires and cables rose 15.1% in June compared with the same period last year * demand is expected to lead to a volatile rise in zinc prices * imports of refined zinc rose 49.6% month-on-month in June * national output of stainless steel crude steel decreased by 2.74% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year * electric furnace operating rate rebounded for three consecutive weeks * 150 major water conservancy projects built in three years * long profit-taking gold rally * sparse Earth permanent magnet plate strengthens again * ICBC will suspend account opening trading of platinum and palladium
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight] Lun Pan Metal Plus rose 1.43% and the index closed down 0.13% in a row.

Forecast of Today's Financial and Economic data: the United States releases the initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in June and the contracted sales index of existing homes.

Today's focus

[the management of Chile's Centinela copper mine accepts a new pay agreement to avoid a strike] the union president said on Monday that the management of the Centinela copper mine in Antofagasta, Chile, had accepted the new salary agreement and the strike was avoided. Previously, trade unions voted in favor of the strike on July 13, but both sides must participate in government-led talks, and the strike usually lasts five to 10 working days to begin. Union representatives said Antofagasta promised to make a new contract offer on Monday. The Centinela mine produced 276000 tons of copper in 2019.

[Chile's Productora copper and gold mine goes into production four months ahead of schedule] the mining company Hot Chili's Productora copper and gold mine project in Chile has been put into production, four months ahead of schedule, and, Hot Chili has jumped from a copper and gold miner to a copper and gold producer. The Perth-based company has signed a mining and processing agreement with Chile's ENAMI, under which, Hot Chili is required to transport about 120000 tons of ore per year to ENAMI's Vallenar plant within two years. The factory is only 15 kilometers from the Productora copper mine.

[SMM analysis: China's exports of prebaked anodes increased by 23.4% in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year.] according to customs data, the export volume of China's prebaked anodes in the first half of this year was not affected by the epidemic, and was on the rise as a whole. Affected by the oversupply at home, domestic anode enterprises are now paying more attention to foreign market demand, but affected by the continued spread of the overseas epidemic. Some overseas electrolytic aluminum and aluminum enterprises adjust their operating capacity. At present, anode orders from overseas aluminum plants after June may be affected. SMM expects the total anode export in the second half of the year may be restrained to a certain extent. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: summary of China's aluminum cable exports in the first half of 2020] aluminum cable exports reached 19800 tons in June 2020, down 1.2% from the previous month and an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year. According to SMM, the export of aluminum cable enterprises has been affected to a certain extent in the context of this year's epidemic. Some enterprises said that export orders in Southeast Asia, such as India, have decreased, but because the epicenter of the foreign epidemic is in Europe and the Americas, the main export areas of aluminum cables, Central Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are relatively limited, and the exporting countries are relatively scattered. The degree of frustration is not as obvious as that of products with relatively high export share, such as aluminum strip and aluminum foil. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: demand driven by overseas economic restart and post-disaster reconstruction zinc prices are expected to rise in shock] as overseas countries restart their economies one after another, orders for die-casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide in Southeast Asia have improved, leading to a pick-up in their plate operating rate. SMM believes that from a fundamental point of view, with the gradual restart of overseas economies and the superimposition of relevant national policies to stimulate infrastructure development, zinc consumption will gradually resume and future consumption can be expected, but supply-side increments restrain the rise in zinc prices, and zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend.

[SMM analysis: the import of price-locked zinc ingots in Hong Kong rose 49.6% month-on-month in June] in July, the Shanghai-Lun ratio first rose and then declined, and the import loss also widened to around 450 yuan / ton, while domestic consumption entered the off-season, while smelter output increased sharply by more than 20, 000 tons month-on-month. Under this influence, domestic spot transactions weakened, while overseas consumption continued to rise from the freezing point. The short-term import window is still difficult to open, based on which SMM expects imports to fall to about 45000 tons in July. "check the details.

[SMM brief Review: LME Zinc inventory increases sharply. LME Zinc inventory has continued to climb since the middle and late July. As of July 28, LME Zinc inventory increased by 14175 tons to 173000 tons, with the largest increase in New Orleans inventory. SMM believes that the main reason for the sharp increase in LME zinc inventory is: first, the new Orr warehouse is located in the United States, and the current epidemic situation in the United States is still grim. Although overseas countries have started their economies one after another, the recovery of overseas consumption is still slow, and some zinc ingots need to be delivered to digest some of the excess zinc ingots. Second, with the rebound in the price of zinc, especially after the price of Lun zinc has exceeded 2200 US dollars / ton, the holder is more willing to cash in at the high price. "check the details."

SMM point of view: can you still get on the bus after the short-term rise of the US dollar and the collective fall of the Shanghai-tin roller coaster? Recently, the tin situation in Shanghai is strong, the lower support is solid, the short sellers dare not enter the market rashly, and the bulls are advancing by leaps and bounds. The superposition of two waves last week was affected by diplomatic events and the accumulation of strength was able to break through the pressure level this week. The price of tin in Shanghai is now near the Brin belt. In the short term, we need to be on guard against the risk of a high correction, but the overall market is still dominated by bullish forces, so it is difficult to reverse for the time being. "check the details.

[SMM Hot Volume: rising reluctantly, falling unwilling Hot Volume prices can usher in a phased correction? Mainstream market resources are expected to arrive at 183000 tons this week, down 7000 tons from last week. This week mainly focus on Shanghai and Lecong small increments, Tianjin arrival volume basically maintain stability. "check the details."

[SMM exclusive monitoring: demand "sees the day", electric furnace operating rate has rebounded for three consecutive weeks] according to SMM research, as of July 28th, the operating rate of 34 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country was 81.27%. It rose 2.72 percentage points from last week, 3.54 percentage points higher than the same period last month. This week has been three consecutive weeks of rise, mainly due to the reduction of the geographical scope affected by the rainy season, the demand gradually began to improve, and the shipping situation of steel mills also improved compared with the previous period. The relief of the pressure on the factory warehouse has led to the resumption of production in some steel mills that have reduced production as a result. "check the details.

[SMM Steel: 150 major water conservancy projects will be built in three years, "rigid demand" big projects are coming] recently, the National standing Committee of our country has studied and deployed to promote the construction of 150 major water conservancy projects from 2020 to 2022, and proposed to step up efforts to promote construction and promote the expansion of effective investment. At the same time, it makes clear the work policy for the next step: the construction of major water conservancy projects can only be strengthened and will not weaken "check the details."

[SMM brief comment: bulls choose to take profits to take back the gold rally] apart from the surge in global novel coronavirus cases and geopolitical tensions, the most important reason is that central banks such as the United States and Europe have put in a large amount of liquidity, resulting in negative real interest rates in the United States. The market is also expected to launch a new round of stimulus package in the United States. But last night, Republican senators announced the benefits of a $1 trillion anti-epidemic stimulus package. Some gold bulls chose profit-taking, and gold prices plunged sharply in the short term. Gold's record rally shows signs of losing momentum after COMEX futures hit an all-time high of $2000.

[SMM brief comment: rare earth permanent magnet plate strengthened again recently some rare earth prices continue to rise] according to SMM, light rare earths, praseodymium and neodymium oxide downstream enquiries increased yesterday, the price of the holder has been raised, the overall trading focus of the market has moved up slightly, there is a bullish mood. In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, holmium oxide market procurement enquiries are more active, the seller's offer is firm and somewhat pulled up, but the downstream metal factories mainly purchase with appropriate rigid demand, and the transaction at a price of more than 420000 yuan / ton is more cautious. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: 5G mobile phone market share first exceeds 60% lithium cobalt order price may rise in August] SMM believes that the proportion of 5G mobile phone applications continues to increase, superimposed by the expected price rise from June to August, the procurement peak comes earlier in the second half of the year, the stock is available ahead of schedule, and the supply of lithium cobalt continues to increase from June to August. Upstream cobalt raw material prices rise, demand increases, lithium cobalt order prices may rise in August.

SMM topic: gold prices soar the top ten gold mining companies in the world want to lie down and count money! Recently, precious metals have strengthened rapidly, and gold and silver prices have repeatedly hit record highs. In early trading yesterday, the highest price in spot gold trading in London was $1981.2 an ounce, setting another all-time high. Spot gold rose above $1921.18 an ounce on the 27th, setting an all-time high in 2011. Gold prices soared, the stock markets of related precious metals companies followed suit, and the share prices of a number of gold mining companies also rose to their highs of the year. Has the surge in gold prices brought days of lying down and counting money for global gold miners? Let's take a look at how much gold the world's major gold mining companies have. "check the details."

[China Gold Association: 217.80 tons of gold produced in the first half of the year fell 7.30% compared with the same period last year] according to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, domestic raw material gold production in the first half of 2020 was 170.07 tons, a decrease of 10.61 tons compared with the same period in 2019. Down 5.87% from the same period last year. Of this total, gold mineral gold reached 141.82 tons, and non-ferrous by-product gold reached 28.25 tons. In addition, imported raw materials produced 47.73 tons of gold in the first half of 2020, down 12.05% from the same period last year. If you add this part of imported raw materials to produce gold, the country produced a total of 217.80 tons of gold, down 7.30% from the same period last year.

Important news of metals and industry

[industrial production rebounded steadily in the first half of the year, the output growth of ten non-ferrous metals and other products continued to accelerate] the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the main indicators of China's industrial production rebounded steadily in the first half of this year. The added value of industries at and above the national scale decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, which was 7.1 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, of which the growth rate in the second quarter was 4.4%, and the production and marketing situation improved. In 41 major industrial sectors and 31 provinces and cities, 26 industries and 29 provinces and cities achieved positive growth in value added in June.

After more than two months of painstaking efforts, the blue aluminum hollow ingot production line was put into trial production on July 22, and the transformation work was completed 9 days ahead of schedule, and successfully produced the first batch of φ 546mp 335 hollow ingots. After inspection, the appearance size and quality of the product meet the industry standard of wrought aluminum and aluminum alloy round ingots (YS/T67-2018), and the internal grain size of the product reaches the first grade, which marks the success of one-time test run in the transformation of the production line, and adds a new variety of aluminum alloy products to the company. "View details."

[Ningxia's aluminum output in the first half of the year increased by 22% over the same period last year] relying on electrolytic aluminum to actively develop deep processing and extend the industrial chain, It has built 3 million pieces of automobile wheels, 400000 tons of aluminum strip processing of Jinning Juke, 300000 tons of aluminum bar processing of Guangyin Aluminum Industry, 150000 tons of aluminum plate and strip of Qinghai Aluminum, 100000 tons of aluminum bars of Haoyuan Aluminum, 50, 000 tons of aluminum profiles of Jinchuang Aluminum Industry, 50, 000 tons of aluminum rods of Xindian Aluminum Co., Ltd., 50, 000 tons of aluminum bars of Hongyu Aluminum Industry and other production lines to promote the transformation and upgrading of the aluminum industry. In the first half of 2020, the output of aluminum in the region increased significantly, with production of 277000 tons, an increase of 22 percent over the same period last year, and the deep processing rate of electrolytic aluminum rose to 47.4 percent, an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year.

[China's refined zinc imports increased by 13.73% in June compared with the same period last year] data released by the General Administration of Customs show that China's refined zinc imports in June were 64686.35 tons, an increase of 13.73% over the same period last year, and an increase of 49.65% from the previous month. "check the details.

[breakdown of China's imports of refined lead in June] data from the General Administration of Customs's online inquiry platform showed that China's imports of refined lead (unwrought refined lead) were 9875.13 tons in June, an increase of 148.91% year-on-year and 537.75% month-on-month.

[Canadian Nickel's proposed plant processes nickel in an environmentally friendly way] (Canada Nickel Co.), a small Canadian nickel company, is accepting Musk's offer to mine nickel efficiently and environmentally. Following Mr Musk's call for miners to increase nickel mining, the nickel company said it was planning to build a plant to process nickel (carbon free nickel) in an environmentally friendly way.

[SMM brief comment: the new distribution network is about to deliver electricity price cost to reduce the cost of R & F Ni-based pre-cast Ni-Fe project to gain advantages] according to SMM research, Dalian Fuli Nickel-based New Materials Co., Ltd. is currently building 8 33000KVA RKEF high nickel pig iron production lines, with an annual production capacity of 48000 nickel tons. Two lines are expected to be put into production by the end of the third quarter of 2020. After the implementation of the above power projects, the electricity price cost will be effectively reduced and the smelting cost advantage will be enhanced.

[Qinghai: carrying out special law enforcement inspection on production safety in iron and steel smelting enterprises] in order to conscientiously learn from the lessons of accidents in iron and steel smelting enterprises in recent years, and to prevent and resolve major safety risks in the iron and steel industry in Qinghai Province, the Qinghai Provincial Emergency Management Department organized experts in the field of iron and steel smelting inside and outside the province to carry out special law enforcement inspection on the iron and steel smelting plate of Xining Special Steel Group together with Xining City and Chengbei District Emergency Management Bureau.

[Australian wire rod launches first anti-dumping sunset review investigation] on July 27, the Australian Anti-dumping Committee issued notice No. 2020 / 077, saying that the first anti-dumping sunset review investigation on imported wire rod (RodinCoil) from China was launched on the application submitted by the Australian company InfraBuild (Newcastle) PtyLtd. The dumping investigation period of this case is from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020. The Australian customs codes of the products involved are 7213.91.00.44 and 7227.90.90.02.

[India: crude steel production rose 17.7 per cent to 6.8 million tons in June from a month earlier] India's steel ministry said its latest figures showed that crude steel production in June was 6.8 million tons, up 17.7 per cent from a month earlier, but still down 27.2 per cent from the same period last year. With regard to steel production, production has continued to increase after the decline in production in April this fiscal year. The output of finished steel in June 2020 was 5.9 million tons, an increase of 15.6 per cent from 510 tons in May. However, the output of finished steel decreased by 33.3% compared with the same period last year.

[stainless steel branch of China Special Steel Enterprises Association: the national output of stainless steel crude steel decreased by 2.74% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period last year] the national output of stainless steel crude steel in the first half of 2020 was 13.9613 million tons, a decrease of 393100 tons and 2.74% compared with the same period in the first half of 2019. Among them, the output of Cr-Ni stainless steel decreased by 165800 tons, or 2.35%, to 6.8991 million tons, and its share increased by 0.20 percentage points to 49.42% compared with the same period last year.

[Indian miner NMDC's new steel plant project has been postponed again] NMDC executives said that India's state-run iron ore miner NMDC Co.'s 3 million-ton new steel project in Nagamar, Chhattisgarh, is once again over budget and will be completed by next year. The original plant is scheduled to start production at the Greenfield plant, but it will take more than a year to start commercial production because of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to the shortage of manpower, the project has also been hit by delays in the import of machinery imported from the factory.

Keep going crazy! Shanghai Silver opens trading limit and Shanghai Gold continues to rush! As soon as trading opened yesterday morning, precious metals continued the recent crazy momentum. The main force of Shanghai Bank of China rose to a new high of 5988 yuan / kg in more than seven years, while the main force of Shanghai gold continued to rise more than 2 percent, reaching as high as 440.08 yuan / gram in intraday trading. Once again, the highest level since listing. Driven by the surge in global novel coronavirus cases, increased tensions between China and the United States, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and the depreciation of the US dollar, the precious metals market has recently become the brightest metal variety. "View details

[Anglo-American Platinum Industry: with the recovery of demand in the automobile market, the palladium market is expected to be short of supply in the second half of the year.] (Anglo American Platinum Ltd.) of Anglo-American Platinum Co., Ltd. said recently that with the recovery of demand in the automobile market, it is expected that there Craig Miller, the company's chief financial officer, said shortages of palladium and rhodium would persist as the epidemic affected production, which would continue to support prices. In Europe and China, stricter vehicle emission standards will also boost demand for platinum group metals, and the government will take stimulus measures to revive the economy.

[ICBC will suspend account opening trading of platinum and palladium and opening trading of position customers will not be affected] from 0:00 on July 31, 2020, ICBC will suspend open trading of all products of platinum, palladium and precious metals index of the account. the unwinding trading of customers with positions will not be affected. Jinshi data learned that ICBC's account gold and silver products can still be traded normally, which is not affected at present. In addition, the opening trading of platinum and palladium in the accounts of Bank of Communications and Minsheng Bank were also suspended.

Macro focus

[Chongqing Flood Control and drought Relief headquarters lifted River Flood level III early warning] according to the Chongqing Flood Control and drought Relief Emergency Plan, after consultation, the Chongqing Flood Control and drought Relief headquarters decided to lift the river flood level III early warning and end the level IV emergency response at 18:00 on July 28th. In the later disposal work, the district and county headquarters and municipal defense means that all member units should, in accordance with their duties, make every effort to restore the normal order of production and life in the disaster areas, do a good job in psychological counseling and appeasement of the affected people, and prevent the occurrence of secondary disasters, especially the epidemic of infectious diseases, to ensure social stability and peace of mind in the disaster areas.

[1 trillion yuan anti-epidemic special treasury bonds at the end of the month some local funds have been allocated to the project] the Ministry of Finance invited a tender for the third renewal of the 2020 anti-epidemic special treasury bonds (four issues) on July 28, with an actual issuance volume of 70 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.86%. The maturity is 10 years. According to statistics, as of July 28, 15 issues of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds have been issued, with a total of 930 billion yuan issued, of which 200 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 630 billion yuan have been issued for five-year, seven-year and 10-year periods, respectively. In order to raise financial funds and comprehensively promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the Ministry of Finance will issue 70 billion yuan of special treasury bonds (the fourth tranche) for the fourth time on July 30, the Ministry of Finance said in a recent announcement. This means that 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will be issued by the end of the month.

Recently, in order to further stimulate the vitality of private capital, a series of policies and measures have been introduced intensively from ministries and commissions to local governments, and a pool of private investment projects has also been released intensively, attracting private capital into the fields of "two new priorities" (that is, new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects). It has become a prominent bright spot to attract private investment into the field of "two new priorities" (that is, new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects). Since July, the all-China Federation of Industry and Commerce has conducted a number of key investigations around the participation of private enterprises in "two new and one heavy" investment. With the support of a series of policies, private capital is accelerating the accumulation of "two new and one important" areas.

 

[the Italian Foreign Trade Commission released an annual report pointing out that China and other Asian emerging markets will lead the recovery of world trade in 2021.] according to the website of Italy's 24-hour Sun, July 28, local time, the Italian Foreign Trade Commission released its annual report on the state of Italy's foreign trade. The report points out that Italian exports are in good condition in 2019, with an annual growth rate of 2.3%. According to the report, the recovery in world trade in 2021 will be mainly led by emerging markets in Asia, with China second to none. In these countries, the application of e-commerce will promote the recovery of consumption and economy and trade.

Terminal information

[Jinfei Motorcycle Aluminum Wheel production Line was put into production in September] Jinfei Intelligent Manufacturing equipment and Automobile and Motorcycle parts Project is located in Feiyang Intelligent Manufacturing Town, Wucheng District, Jinhua City, including Motorcycle Aluminum Alloy Hub Intelligent Manufacturing Project (Phase I). At present, the intelligent production line is being installed and is expected to be put into production in September. After the project is put into production, it can produce 10 million pieces of motorcycle aluminum alloy wheels per year.

[Asia-Pacific Science and Technology wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 600 million yuan to build lightweight aluminum alloy products project] Asia-Pacific Science and Technology announcement, the company held a board meeting on July 27, 2020 to examine and approve the motion on signing and investing in the construction of lightweight aluminum alloy products by Asia-Pacific Light Alloy (Nantong) Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Asia-Pacific Technology. It is agreed that the Management Committee of Yatong Science and Technology and Haian Economic and technological Development Zone, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, signed the Investment Agreement on the project of Yatong Science and Technology to invest in the construction of lightweight aluminum alloy products in Hai'an Economic Development Zone. New land, plants and equipment will be added to the west side of Yatong's existing plant, and the project will be invested in lightweight aluminum alloy products with a total investment of 600 million yuan.

[Daimler and Renault may deepen cooperation to share more electric vehicle technology] Daimler may deepen its cooperation with Renault, and the two sides are likely to share more electric vehicle technology. Last year Daimler announced that its next generation of Mercedes-Benz Citan vans would be fully electric. The Pure Electric Citan will use Renault-Nissan technology and will be based on Renault Kangoo models. Daimler CEO Corinson (Ola Kallenius) said the company would continue to explore possible areas of cooperation with Renault, including electric vehicles.

Build 100 exchange power stations! On July 27, Beijing Automobile Group Co., Ltd. and State Grid Electric vehicle Service Co., Ltd. signed a framework agreement on deepening strategic cooperation to jointly promote the development of new energy vehicle industry. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in promoting car and electric bag and vehicle sales business, battery energy package business, power exchange business, green power trading and smart energy service business, as well as capital cooperation. According to the agreement, the relevant companies strive to fully cooperate in the construction of 100 power stations by the end of June 2021 to serve no less than 10000 power transfer vehicles across the country.

Related market

[Rosehill Resources filed for bankruptcy] the U.S. oil and gas industry has a growing army of bankruptcies, with Rose Mountain Resources company (Rosehill Resources) filing for bankruptcy protection on Sunday, local time. The collapse in oil prices forced the shale oil prospector to seek debt restructuring. Rose Mountain Resources Company mainly conducts crude oil drilling in the part of Delaware Basin on the west side of Permian basin (Permian Basin). The company has filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 in Federal bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. As oil prices have rebounded over the past few years, a large number of US shale companies have been borrowing to raise money to expand production, making them vulnerable to this year's historic crude oil crash.

[oil prices fell during the day as hopes for the US stimulus package faded] and huge differences between the two parties on economic issues, coupled with the "pause" of (MLB) in Major League Baseball, slowed the rebound in demand. Although API data showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, given the unexpectedly large increase in data last week and doubts about consumer demand for gasoline, WTI crude prices fell after hitting $41 a barrel after the data were released, and market sentiment was mixed. Tyche Capital analysts believe that there is a significant weakening in demand for crude oil in both the driving and aviation industries.

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