[overnight market] geopolitical tensions intensify, outer disk metals fall across the board, precious metals continue to rise.

Forecast of Today's Financial and Economic data: China releases the annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above scale in June

Today's focus

According to the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs today, China imported a total of 485800 tons of refined copper (refined copper cathodes with unwrought copper content > 99.9935% and other unwrought copper cathodes) in June 2020, an increase of 63.17% month-on-month and 128.79% over the same period last year. Since mid-April, import parity has been open and maintained for nearly a month and a half. Yangshan copper premium has risen rapidly, and the warehouse receipt price is still at a high of about US $100 / ton by the end of May. Traders signed a large number of orders during this period and shipped them to China for import declaration in early June. Domestic consumption performed well in June, and there was still demand for imported copper against the backdrop of tight supply, and the import window opened again, continuing to drive traders to transport electrolytic copper domestically.

[SMM analysis: scrap copper rod beats electrolytic copper rod.] with the continuous rise of copper prices, the price difference of processing fees for fine copper rods has expanded rapidly recently, resulting in downstream cable enterprises switching to waste copper rods, resulting in a rapid decline in the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises. According to our SMM survey, the processing fees for electrolytic copper rods in various parts of the country on July 24 are as follows: the processing fees for electrolytic copper rods in East China 8mm power industry are 600-700 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton higher than that of last Friday; the average price of 8mm power industry in Guangdong is 480-650 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that of last Friday; generally speaking, the processing fee for copper rods in southwest China is the highest, while that in North China is the lowest.

[announcement of the 10th batch of scrap Copper, scrap Steel and waste Aluminum in 2020] A few days ago, the China solid waste Chemicals Management Network released the tenth batch of scrap metal import approvals, including 10110 tons of scrap copper and 1110 tons of waste aluminum. "3970 tons of scrap iron and steel." check the details.

[SMM analysis: small increase in inventory, negative drop in aluminum bar market] overall, the aluminum bar market in July fully entered the summer off-season mode, although inventory has not obviously accumulated, but the overall supply of goods in circulation is abundant, more on-demand purchases downstream, and more tend to be delivered to the factory aluminum bar, so the warehouse self-pick-up aluminum bar performance is not good. The processing fee will remain relatively weak in the short term, and the rate of price adjustment depends on the shipper's willingness to ship and the fluctuation of the base price. "check the details.

[round table interview: "New Infrastructure" forecasts how lead and zinc prices are driven by zinc consumption and TC trend of domestic mines] from a macro point of view, in the context of global water release, lead prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. From a fundamental point of view, the impact of the epidemic increases the difficulty of waste recovery, which will affect consumption to a certain extent. On the other hand, the production capacity of recycled lead is gradually released and the supply pressure increases, which is not conducive to the price of lead. However, the problem of tight supply of waste batteries is still a matter of constant attention. "check the details."

[SMM research: weekly start-up of lead-acid batteries in the traditional peak season] according to SMM research, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the five provinces of SMM from July 20 to July 24 was 65.71%, which was stable compared with last Friday. According to the research, as the flood in some areas recedes, the temperature picks up rapidly, such as the automobile battery market replacement demand shows signs of regional improvement, coupled with the lead price is in a strong state, dealers are more enthusiastic to purchase "check the details."

[SMM data: the advantage of recycled lead price difference is no longer the end of ten consecutive increases in lead ingot inventory] according to SMM, as of Friday, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 42000 tons, down more than 5600 tons from last week. It is understood that the price of lead fell and rebounded during the week, while the price of waste batteries remained high due to continuous tight supply, which dragged down refinery profits, and the recycled discount narrowed rapidly. As of Friday, recycled refined lead was traded to 150-100 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead, and a few even reached flat levels. Recycling discount narrowed, its price priority significantly weakened, downstream procurement demand returned to the primary lead market, while downstream procurement, including more inventory reduction in major consumer provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.

[SMM survey: refinery maintenance completed recycled lead weekly operating rate rose to 53.5%] according to the Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) survey, SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in four provinces have a weekly operating rate of 53.5% from July 20 to July 24, up 0.3% from last week. Among them, the operating rate of Jiangsu recycled lead smelting enterprises is 53.3%, which is the same as last week, because the supply of waste batteries is still tight, only enough for refineries to maintain normal production, it is difficult to further increase production, and it is difficult to fluctuate the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises. "check details.

[SMM data: July 24th SMM Seven zinc ingots social inventory] according to SMM, as of Friday, the total inventory of SMM seven zinc ingots was 198900 tons, down 7800 tons from last Friday and 6200 tons from Monday. Inventory in Seven places recorded a large decline this week, mainly contributed by Shanghai and Tianjin. The Shanghai area fell by more than 4000 tons, mainly because the arrival of goods was affected by the flood in the south, and the pace of entering the warehouse was affected, while the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy every fall this week turned better, and the overall decline was recorded. "check the details."

[SMM data: inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Free Trade Zone] according to SMM, as of Friday, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 44100 tons, down 1900 tons from last week. It is understood that this week, along with import losses slightly narrowed, part of the import of zinc ingots to Hong Kong to the domestic, driving efforts out of the warehouse. The arrival of the goods is relatively normal. Under the offset of difference and difference, the inventory of zinc ingots in the bonded area as a whole recorded a slight drop of 1900 tons this week. "check the details."

[SMM data: the impact of the outbreak caused by the 105.5 per cent month-on-month increase in China's nickel mine imports in June was basically eliminated] Customs data show that China's total nickel mine imports in June were 3.4546 million tons, an increase of 1.7739 million tons over May, an increase of 105.5 per cent month-on-month and a decrease of 17.1 per cent from the same period last year. Among them, imports from the Philippines were 3.0748 million tons, up 129% from the previous month and 3.54% lower than the same period last year. The impact of Philippine exports caused by the epidemic has been basically eliminated, and imports may return to normal shipping levels in July. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Shanghai Nickel rose sharply in the morning and suddenly narrowed down in the afternoon diving gain.] at present, the fundamentals of the nickel market are still short, but under loose monetary policy, inflation expectations make Shanghai Nickel easy to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to judge the middle track of the Boll line of 105000 yuan / ton and the highest point of the year at 110000, while paying attention to the changes in the main positions and appropriate short-term operation. "check the details."

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (24)] as of July 24, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 105.21 million tons, up 2.31 million tons from last week and down 1.09 million tons from a year earlier. Port inventory has accumulated for the sixth week in a row, and the growth rate continues to expand. "View details

[SMM analysis: the upper reaches of magnesium ingots are disapproved of due to the cost of standing price] the price of ferrosilicon coal rose one after another in the early stage, although it has begun to decline gradually, but the increase in the cost of magnesium ingots does cause some pressure to the upstream factories, and the upstream insists on raising prices. And traders and some downstream said that the recent domestic downstream orders significantly reduced, and now it is the summer vacation in Europe, so exports are also more difficult, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market is obvious. Most think that prices may continue to fall. "check the details.

[special topic on SMM: European car giants smell potential business opportunities to accelerate seeking cooperation with domestic car battery manufacturers) the broad space for the development of new energy electric vehicles has become the focus of automobile manufacturers. In the first half of this year, the French president announced that he would further increase subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, raising the number of private car owners who buy electric vehicles from 6000 euros to 7000 euros. Subsequently, in the 130 billion economic stimulus package launched by Germany, the subsidy for electric vehicles also increased from 3000 euros to 6000 euros. Under the stimulation of market consumption expectations and policies, European car companies began to accelerate the layout of electric vehicles. SMM combs the relevant cooperation events this year as follows: "check the details."

Important news of metals and industry

[SMM brief Review: China imported 68744.67 tons of copper scrap in June slightly lower than the previous month] according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the domestic import of copper scrap in June 2020 was 68744.67 tons, down 1.08 percent from the previous month, and 59.61 percent lower than the same period last year. 430617.60 tons of copper scrap were imported from January to June, a cumulative decrease of 50.17 percent over the same period last year. SMM believes that in May, the control of the global epidemic gradually relaxed, Southeast Asia quickly entered the stage of resumption of work, and domestic enterprises gradually sent scrap copper inventory to China, but China's middle managers going abroad are still restricted by many factors, affecting the starting level of scrap copper disassembly and processing enterprises, and the long ocean transportation cycle in Europe and the United States, resulting in less than expected scrap copper imports in June. "check the details.

[SMM data: inventory of mainstream copper consumption sites across the country increased by 15700 tons month-on-month this week] as of last Friday, according to a survey by SMM, market inventories in mainstream copper regions across the country totaled 255900 tons this week, an increase of 15700 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, copper stocks in Shanghai increased by 12500 tons to 189500 tons compared with the previous month; copper inventories in Jiangsu decreased by 1000 tons to 34700 tons; and copper inventories in Guangdong increased by 4200 tons to 31700 tons.

[Freeport McMoran copper production fell 1.2% year-on-year in the second quarter gold production rose 19% year-on-year] Freeport McMoran (Freeport McMoRan), the world's largest copper producer, released second-quarter results on Thursday. During the reporting period, Freeport copper production fell 1.2 per cent year-on-year to 767 million pounds, while gold production rose 19 per cent year-on-year to 191000 ounces. The company said underground mining at Ggrasberg continued as planned and that the copper mine was now shifting from open-pit mining to underground mining.

[Tektronix's copper production fell 23 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter and profits plunged more than 82 per cent] during the reporting period, the company's copper production fell 23 per cent year-on-year to 59000 tonnes. In the first half of 2020, Tektronix's copper production totaled 130000 tons, down 11.6 percent from a year earlier, compared with 147000 tons in the same period last year. The company reported on Thursday that its adjusted second-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders fell more than 82% to C $89 million, compared with C $498 million in the same period last year.

[SMM bonded warehouse inventory: Shanghai bonded warehouse copper inventory increased by 5000 tons this week] according to SMM research, copper inventory in Shanghai bonded area increased by 5000 tons to 217500 tons on Friday compared with last Friday, and stocks increased for the third consecutive week. The off-season effect appeared in July, the domestic copper elimination fee was weaker than the previous month, the inflow of imported copper and the squeeze of scrap copper occupied the refined copper, and the social inventory continued to increase. This week, import losses are gradually expanding, import demand is depressed, and the supply of goods is flowing into bonded warehouses one after another, so bonded inventory continues to grow.

At 10:00 on July 22nd, the launching ceremony of the aluminum intensive and deep processing project of Guizhou Chinalco Aluminum Co., Ltd. was solemnly held in Wangzhuang Aluminum processing Park, Jingkai District, Qingzhen City. Wu Yongkang, deputy secretary of the party committee and general manager of the Guiyang Industrial Development holding Group Co., Ltd., and Wu Yongkang, secretary of the party committee and chairman of the Guiyang Industrial and Commercial Investment Group, and Liao Ziyang, deputy secretary of the Qingzhen Municipal CPC Committee, delivered a speech. Liu Liangguo, party committee secretary and director of Guiyang Industry and Information Bureau, announced the

[SMM analysis: South Korea's export business declined in the first half of the year, crude steel procurement reduced raw material demand.] according to recent reports, the Bank of Korea released data on the 23rd, showing that South Korea's gross national product (GDP) shrank 2.9% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year and 3.3% month-on-month, the worst performance in a single quarter since 1998. South Korean exports fell 13.6 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the worst since the fourth quarter of 1974, according to the data. According to SMM, South Korea's export business as a whole has a downward trend in the first half of 2020, including steel production and foreign trade. With the economic contraction, the demand for crude steel in infrastructure construction in the market is reduced, so the demand for steelmaking raw materials in South Korean steel mills may be relatively reduced.

[mining quarterly report: ANTAM:2020Q2 nickel production and sales achieve positive growth of 2% compared with July 22], PT Aneka Tambang Tbk released a report on July 22nd that the company's unaudited nickel production and sales performance will achieve positive growth in the second quarter of 2020 (April-June 2020, 2Q20). During the second quarter of 2020, ANTAM's unaudited ferronickel production reached 6447 tons of nickel in Nickel Iron (TNi), an increase of 2 per cent over the production of 6315 TNi, in the first quarter of 2020 (January-March 2020, 1Q20).

[Naiman Banner Jingan 1.3 million ton stainless steel project put into production six nickel-iron lines in September] Naiman Banner, Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia, went all out to overcome the impact of the epidemic and promote the resumption of key projects. During the year, 86 key projects (57 newly built and 29 continued) are planned to be implemented, with an investment of more than 7 billion yuan. Jingan Nickel-based Alloy New material Project. More than 2000 workers have returned to work, and 18 Ni-Fe alloy production lines have all resumed work, of which civil works have been basically completed. the production and installation of steel structure and the installation of equipment such as drying kiln, rotary kiln and submerged arc furnace are being carried out. 1 workshop has entered the commissioning stage of equipment power supply system and start-up of water supply system, and 6 production lines have been put into production in September.

[general Administration of Customs: China's exports of sheet steel fell by 31.1% in June compared with the same period last year] according to the latest data of the General Administration of Customs, China exported 2.2 million tons of steel sheet in June 2020, down 31.1% from January to June, down 14.9% from the same period last year. In June, China exported 400000 tons of iron and steel bars, down 42.3 percent from the same period last year. From January to June, exports totaled 3.95 million tons, down 28.7 percent from the same period last year.

[world Iron and Steel Association: global crude steel production fell 7 per cent year-on-year to 148.3 million tons in June] according to data released by the World Iron and Steel Association, world crude steel production in 64 countries reported by the World Iron and Steel Association was 148.3 million tons, down 7 per cent from the same period last year. Among them, China's steel output rose 4.5 per cent in June from a year earlier to 91.6 million tons. In the first half of this year, global crude steel production was 873.1 million tons, down 6 per cent from a year earlier. Of this total, crude steel production in Asia was 642 million tons, down 3 per cent from the same period in 2019; EU crude steel production was 68.3 million tons, down 18.7 per cent from the same period last year; and North American crude steel production was 50.2 million tons, down 17.6 per cent from the same period last year.

[previous period: the margin ratio of rebar, hot-rolled coil, stainless steel and other trading margin was adjusted to 8%. The range of trading limit was adjusted to 6%. According to the study, starting from the closing and settlement on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, the margin ratio and the range of trading margin of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coiled plate and stainless steel futures contract are adjusted as follows: the margin ratio of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coiled plate and stainless steel futures contract is adjusted to 8%, and the range of trading limit is adjusted to 6%. If the margin ratio and the limit range of the above-mentioned transaction are different from the current margin ratio and the range of the trading margin, then check the details according to the execution with a high proportion and a large range of the two.

[small metal conference practical information: selenium raw material sources, product applications, supply and demand analysis] Ten years ago, the price of selenium products was nearly one million yuan, due to the doubling of the scale of the copper industry. the demand for minerals has increased from 4 million tons ten years ago to nearly 10 million tons in recent years. Of course, the production of selenium has also increased from less than a thousand tons ten years ago, with the upgrading of selenium removal technology and equipment in recent years, the output has reached about 2600 tons per year. The supply of selenium in Jiang Copper, Tongling and medium Copper in the top three copper smelting enterprises exceeded 1000 tons, and the output of the top ten copper smelting enterprises exceeded 2,000 tons. (Yunnan Copper now belongs to China Copper, with an annual output of not less than 500 tons of selenium.)

[SMM analysis: magnesium alloy production is relatively stable and may be affected by terminal automobile production and marketing] China's magnesium alloy output in June 2020 was 20600 physical tons, an increase of 1% from the previous month and 2% from the same period last year. The output of magnesium alloy in June has little change compared with that in May, and the domestic downstream is still the main market. Exports are greatly affected, which has a lot to do with the shutdown of overseas car enterprises. In May 2020, China's magnesium alloy exports were 3065.58 tons, a decrease of 51% from the previous month and 52% from the same period last year. "check the details.

Macro focus

[foreign Ministry: the Chinese Consulate General in Houston is still in operation to urge the US side to reverse the wrong decision] Wang Wenbin said: the Chinese Consulate General in Houston is still in operation, and we urge the US side to reverse the relevant wrong decision. He said: on July 21, the US side unilaterally stirred up trouble and suddenly asked the Chinese side to close the Consulate General in Houston, seriously violating international law, the basic norms of international relations and the relevant provisions of the Sino-US consular treaty, and seriously damaging Sino-US relations. The above-mentioned measures of the Chinese side are a legitimate and necessary response to the unreasonable actions of the United States, in line with international law and basic norms governing international relations, and in line with diplomatic practice.

[opinions of Seventeen departments on improving the system of supporting the Development of small and medium-sized Enterprises] recently, in order to thoroughly implement the spirit of the fourth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, adhere to and improve the basic socialist economic system, and adhere to the "two unwavering", we will form a regular and long-term mechanism to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and promote the high-quality development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Make the following comments: "check the details."

[after four consecutive weeks of decline, the Fed's balance sheet expanded slightly for the second week in a row] the Federal Reserve recently said that in the most recent week, the total assets held by the Federal Reserve rose slightly to $6.964 trillion, nearly double that of the same period last year. After four consecutive weeks of declines, the Fed's balance sheet rose by $6.151 billion this week, down from $38 billion last week, according to the data. Total assets rose to $6.964755 trillion, up from $6.958604 trillion the week before. In the same period in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet was $3.803436 trillion.

[us Treasury Secretary Nuchin: a rescue bill to deal with the epidemic will be introduced on Monday] hopes to act as soon as possible. Republicans in the White House and Senate are in step. The most pressing problem is that unemployment insurance is about to be exhausted. The Republican stimulus package will be $1 trillion.

Terminal information

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a news conference of the State Information Office to accelerate the development of the new energy vehicle industry. It is necessary to speed up the release of the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035). At present, the planned research work has been completed, and we have now reported it to the State Council. We will further strengthen our confidence in promoting the development of the new energy industry and further clarify the development goals.

[Zhongjin Lingnan 3.8 billion yuan convertible bond issued successfully] the announcement shows that this time 3.8 billion yuan of convertible bonds have been issued. the funds raised are mainly used for the mining and separation project with an annual output of 2 million tons of Maimeng Mine of Dominica Mining Company, the upgrading of zinc slag from Danxia smelter and the technical transformation project of mining waste rock utilization of Fankou lead-Zinc Mine.

12:41 on 23 July, the long March 5 remote four rocket lifted off China's independently developed "Tianmen-1" Mars probe and successfully lifted off from China's Wenchang space launch site. About 2167 seconds after the rocket flew, it successfully put the probe into the scheduled orbit and began the journey of Mars exploration, which took the first step of planetary exploration in our country. Like the major space launch missions in the past, a number of enterprises affiliated to the Chinalco Group have once again given full play to their advantages and undertaken the development and production of key materials for the long March 5 carrier rocket and the "Tianmen-1" Mars rover. to help China make new breakthroughs in aerospace.

[Tianhua Super Clean: the company intends to obtain 26% equity transfer of Tianyi Lithium Industry] the company and Chendao Investment signed the "Equity transfer Framework Agreement" on July 9, 2020, and Chendao Investment intends to transfer its 26% equity stake in Tianyi Lithium Industry to the company.

[to maximize profits in the first half of the year, the operating income of Jinchuan Group increased by 35.9% over the same period last year] Li Shangyong, general manager and deputy secretary of the party committee, made a comprehensive analysis report on the company's medium-term In the first half of the year, the company's operating revenue completed 54.1% of the annual plan, an increase of 35.9% over the same period last year, of which products and trade revenue accounted for 42% and 60.43% of the annual budget, respectively. The total industrial output value accounted for 45.9% of the annual plan, an increase of 12.1% over the same period last year, and the total profits and taxes accounted for 39.25% of the annual budget.

Related market

[a new US stimulus package is a big negative for the dollar] the $2.9 trillion of federal money used to support the economy is about to dry up in a few weeks, and the United States is trying to launch a new stimulus package, which means that the US government deficit will rise sharply again. According to a new report released by the Congressional Budget Office, the US budget deficit in June was 863 billion US dollars, while the fiscal deficit has climbed to 2.74 trillion US dollars in the past nine months, the highest in history.

[with the improvement of health events around the world, crude oil demand in many countries rebounded strongly in May, June and July] the decline in oil demand in the second quarter was smaller than expected. On July 10th the (IEA) of the International Energy Agency revised this year's oil demand to 92.1 million barrels a day, 400000 barrels a day higher than its June forecast. Affected by this, the meeting of energy ministers of the OPEC+ mechanism held on July 15, local time, decided to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels per day from August. However, since countries that have not fulfilled their production reduction quotas in May and June will make compensatory additional production cuts in August and September, the actual scale of production reduction will exceed this level, with a total reduction of about 8.1 million-8.3 million barrels per day.

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