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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the return of zinc in Shanghai has a significant macro impact * global aluminum demand is expected to fall by 5.4% this year * Hydro aluminum plant output increased in the second quarter.
Jul 23,2020 07:30CST
[SMM Metal Breakfast] International Aluminum Association: global aluminum demand is expected to decline 5.4% this year * the return of Shanghai zinc to the top of Wan Ba has a significant impact on macro sentiment * sporadic precursor prices in the power market have risen slightly * the average daily output of crude steel in key iron and steel enterprises in the first ten days of July decreased by 2.1307 million tons month-on-month, 0.53%*Oz Minerals raised the annual copper and gold production target * Antofagasta second quarter Copper and gold output are both significantly reduced month-on-month * Minmetals rare earths: first-half net profit increased by 189% 262% compared with the same period last year
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[overnight market] the metal market fell, the dollar fell again, and US stocks closed slightly higher and gold futures rose sharply.

"Today's financial data outlook: evening release of the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the consumer confidence index of the euro zone in July.

Today's focus

[SMM scrap copper column: shipping giant will shut down solid waste on scrap copper import impact] Today (July 22) Shanghai electrolytic copper spot quoted a monthly contract of 20 ~ 120 yuan / ton, flat copper transaction price of 52500 yuan / ton ~ 52630 yuan / ton, water copper transaction price of 52560 yuan / ton ~ 52700 yuan / ton. Copper prices have risen by more than 1,000 for two consecutive days, copper prices are high, the outflow of goods continues to increase, the downstream is back to fear of high and stop to wait and see, and most of the market transactions are still long single traders, but under the strong market, the target psychological price may be even lower. sellers are more concerned about high and fast cash. "View details

[ICSG: global copper market supply shortage of 86000 tons in April 2020] International Copper Research Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly report that the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 86000 tons in April and 3000 tons in March. The refined copper market was oversupplied by 59000 tonnes in the first four months of this year, compared with a shortfall of 181000 tonnes in the same period last year, ICSG said. In April, global refined copper production was 1.98 million tons and consumption was 2.07 million tons. In April, China's bonded warehouses had a shortage of 131000 tons of copper, compared with a surplus of 2000 tons in March. "View details

[SMM analysis: production reduction superimposed suspension of production of aluminum rod market in the northern region is worrying] according to SMM understanding, the recent trend of production reduction or suspension of aluminum rod manufacturers in the northern region. Due to the implementation of production restrictions on environmental protection in Jiaozuo, Henan Province, local aluminum rod factories are all in a state of suspension of production, and normal production and operation activities are restricted. Some aluminum rod enterprises in Luoyang area have stopped production due to poor market demand. Several aluminum rod production plants in Inner Mongolia have or are considering implementing production reduction plans, and individual aluminum rod manufacturers in Shandong are more inclined to produce high-end customized aluminum rods with high processing fees. The output of common aluminum rod decreases again and again. On the whole, the supply end of aluminum rod in the north is weaker. "View details

[international Aluminum Association: global aluminum demand is expected to decline 5.4 per cent this year] MilesProsser, secretary-general of the International Aluminum Association, said global aluminum demand is expected to fall 5.4 per cent this year compared with 2019, which will lead to inventories as production has increased so far this year. However, in an interview with S & P Global Platts Energy News, Prosser quoted research analyst CMGroup as saying that demand will grow strongly in the medium term because of government investment in infrastructure, construction and automotive industries to accelerate economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. He pointed out that primary aluminium production has increased so far this year, in part because smelters rely on a stable power supply, making it difficult to shut them down. "View details

Recently, EU leaders reached an agreement on a "recovery fund" totaling 750 billion euros and the EU budget for the next seven years, which means that the EU will begin to implement the largest economic rescue plan in history. (SMM Analysis: the return of Shanghai Zinc has a significant impact on macro sentiment.) recently, EU leaders reached an agreement on a "recovery fund" totaling 750 billion euros, as well as the EU budget for the next seven years. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the Trump administration is expected to launch the fourth phase of the New Crown pneumonia pandemic relief plan by the end of this month, with more than $1 trillion in aid. "View details

[Australian miner South32's Metalloys smelter in South Africa enters maintenance period] diversified mining company South32 has carried out a temporary overhaul of (Metalloys), a manganese alloy smelter in Meyerton, Gauteng province. South 32 said in its second-quarter results that the decision was made after considering the future economic viability of the smelter. "View details

[SMM analysis: cobalt raw material supply is tight and downstream demand is slightly warmer.] according to the current understanding, SMM expects power ternary orders to continue to pick up in August, the digital 3C end begins to prepare raw material inventory for the September-October peak, and downstream demand is expected to pick up more than in July. The shortage of cobalt raw materials may continue, the coefficient may continue to rise, and the cost of the smelter may continue to rise. Therefore, SMM expects the prices of cobalt series products to continue to rise, but considering the impact of the epidemic on downstream procurement caution, the room for price increase may be limited, or it may make up for the part of the cost increase, but the degree of demand recovery is not enough to continue to significantly increase prices for the time being. "View details

[SMM July 22nd Ternary precursor spot Express: sporadic precursor prices rose slightly] Today (July 22nd) the market price of ternary precursor 523 (power type) is 7.15-73000 yuan / ton, the average price is up 300 yuan / ton, the market price of ternary precursor 523 (single crystal) is 7.35-75500 yuan / ton, the average price is up 300 yuan / ton, the market price of ternary precursor 523 (single crystal) is 7.35-75500 yuan / ton, and the average price is up 300 yuan / ton. The price of ternary precursor 622 (power type) is 7.85-80500 yuan / ton, the average price is 300 yuan / ton, and the price of ternary precursor 811 (power type) is 9.1-95000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 300 yuan / ton. In the digital market, small and medium-sized factories have made zero transactions one after another recently, with the transaction price rising by 500mur1000 yuan / ton, and Sanyuan material enterprises can only accept a slight increase in price. "View details

SMM Steel: how is the production and transportation of the thin steel mill in the ferocious flood? Recently, heavy rainfall has continued in most parts of the Yangtze River basin, causing floods in many places and almost paralyzing road traffic. When people all over the country are generally concerned about whether the affected people have been resettled in time, the vast number of steel traders are also concerned about whether the production and transportation of various steel mills will be affected. Generally speaking, the steel mills in Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and other regions are relatively seriously affected by the flood, and the steel output and raw material input are hindered to varying degrees, but they are not stagnant. At present, only a few steel mills have chosen homeopathic furnace to slow down the production pace, taking into account the factors of their own high inventory. The impact on the production of other steel mills is limited. And with the end of the rainy season, the flood gradually fades and road traffic resumes one after another, the production of the affected steel mills will soon return to normal and will not have much impact on the overall steel supply. "View details

[SMM thread: Hangzhou warehouse wants to charge storage fee, what is the impact of the spot market? This week Hangzhou thread inventory 1.078 million tons, month-on-month-7000 tons, year-on-year + 377000 tons. Recently, the high level shock of thread inventory in Hangzhou has not been accumulated continuously. the main reason is that Jiangsu, Anhui and other places are seriously affected by floods, shipping and automobile transportation are limited to a certain extent, and the shipments of local resources to Hangzhou have decreased. Secondly, Hangzhou inventory is close to the peak storage capacity, superimposed by the impact of the rainy season, port ships are inconvenient to unload, due to inventory pressure, some steel mills, such as Yonggang, have reduced shipments to Hangzhou. Finally, the plum gradually emerged from Hangzhou and its surrounding areas this week, and market traders said that terminal demand showed obvious signs of recovery, although it had not yet reached the level of prosperity, but it had made a certain contribution to the elimination of inventory in Hangzhou. "View details

[China Iron and Steel Association: the average daily output of crude steel in key iron and steel enterprises decreased by 0.53% in the first ten days of July] in early July 2020, iron and steel enterprises produced a total of 21.3071 million tons of crude steel, 19.1726 million tons of pig iron, 19.8003 million tons of steel and 3.2454 million tons of coke. The average daily output of this ten-day period was 2.1307 million tons of crude steel, down 0.53% from the previous month, up 5.81% from the same period last year; pig iron was 1.9173 million tons, up 0.11% from the previous month and 7.61% over the same period last year; and steel was 1.98 million tons, down 7.20% from the previous month and up 5.61% from the same period last year. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[overseas take over recovery baton Hulun copper inventories continue to diverge] London Metal Exchange (LME) data released on Monday showed that Lun copper inventories continued to decline to 151075 tons, a new half-year low. At present, the economies of most overseas countries have restarted, and the exchange's copper inventories have been reduced by more than 100,000 tons in the past two months, supporting the rise in futures prices. As of July 17, copper stocks in the previous period rose for three weeks in a row, with weekly inventories rising 15.52% to 158647 tons, a recent two-month high, indicating that after entering the off-season of traditional consumption, copper market consumption has weakened. "View details

[Oz Minerals raises full-year copper and gold production target] Mining company Oz Minerals recently released its second-quarter production report and raised its full-year copper and gold production target. During the reporting period, the company overcame the disruption caused by the epidemic and achieved strong results in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, the company produced a total of 24577 tons of copper and 68740 ounces of gold, mainly driven by production at the Prominent Hill mine in South Australia. "View details

[Norwegian Hydro's second-quarter earnings rose unexpectedly due to lower costs and increased production of its aluminum plants] recently, Norwegian Hydro said that despite the weak market caused by Covid-19, Hydro's profit before interest and tax in the second quarter of 2020 was 949 million Norwegian kroner (US $104.32 million), up from 875 million NOK in the same period last year. Global primary aluminium consumption fell 9 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier and is expected to remain depressed for the rest of the year, resulting in a supply glut of 300-4.7 million tons, Hydro said. "View details

[creditors of the German lead factory are negotiating to sell it to Glencore] it is reported that creditors of Weser Metall, Germany's main insolvent producer, have decided to start exclusive negotiations on the sale of the lead factory to Glencore, a commodities group. Glencore said it would not comment. Weser Metall GmbH, based in Nordenham, produces about 105000 tons of lead a year and is one of the leading lead producers in Europe. In May, the company filed for bankruptcy after demand for metals fell due to the Xinguan pneumonia crisis. The lead factory stopped production last weekend. "View details

[pan American Silver announces suspension of Huaron and Morococha silver mines in Peru] after several workers tested positive for the new crown virus, (Pan American Silver), a precious metals mining company, is suspending its operations at the Huaron and Morococha silver mines in Peru for maintenance until it is certain that operations can be safely resumed. Pan American Bank owns and operates silver and gold mines in Mexico, Peru, Canada, Argentina and Bolivia. As the world's second largest producer of raw silver, it has the largest silver reserve base in the world. "View details

[Resolute Mining maintains full-year gold production target of 430000 ounces] Resolute Mining forecasts full-year gold production, maintaining its previous forecast of 430000 ounces for the current fiscal year. The company said it produced 107183 ounces of gold in the second quarter of this year and maintained a cost of $1033 per ounce in the second quarter. The group level maintains a cost guidance of US $980 / oz to reflect the production costs incurred by Ravenswood and the uncertainty that COVID-19 affects the increase in potential costs of related companies. "View details

[Antofagasta's copper and gold production fell sharply in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter] Antofagasta released its second-quarter production report. In the second quarter, the company's copper production fell 8.4 per cent to 177700 tons; copper sales decreased 8.4 per cent to 178900 tons; gold production decreased 29.3 per cent to 46000 ounces; and molybdenum production increased 29.2 per cent to 3100 tons. Antofagata's copper production so far totaled 371700 tons, down 4 per cent from a year earlier, while gold production totaled 111100 ounces, down 25.5 per cent from a year earlier. "View details

[Citic Special Steel: wholly-owned subsidiary "Xingcheng Special Steel" plans to invest 500 million yuan in "Peng Heng Investment"] CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. according to the needs of business development, Jiangyin Xingcheng Special Steel Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, plans to contribute 500 million yuan to Jinshi Investment Co., Ltd., CITIC Securities Investment Co., Ltd., three Gorges Jinshi (Wuhan) Equity Investment Base Capital Partnership (limited partnership), Shenzhen Dingxin Private Equity Investment Partnership (limited partnership), Ningbo Hanhai Qianyuan Equity Investment Fund Partnership (limited partnership), Beijing Xinyin Hengtai Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) jointly invests Jiaxing Jinshi Peng Heng Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as "Peng Heng Investment"), The partnership agreement is scheduled to be signed in July. Peng Heng Investment will, according to the needs of the company, invest in objects that meet the requirements of the company, and promote the company to achieve high-quality and sustainable development. "View details

[BHP Billiton faces Britain's largest class action for causing dam collapse in Brazil] the Funda dam in Brazil killed 19 people and caused lasting damage to the environment. The facility is operated by a company jointly owned by BHP Billiton and vale sa. Residents, businesses and local governments say BHP Billiton is ultimately responsible for the collapse of the Funda dam. More than 200000 Brazilians have asked British judges to sue BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, in British courts over the collapse of the dam five years ago. "View details

[Canadian Iamgold restarts a gold mine in Suriname] Canadian gold miner Iamgold recently said it would restart operations of the Rosebel gold project in Suriname after employees tested positive for the virus and issued a shutdown order in June. Some employees at the Rosebel mine returned to work on June 20, adding that they hoped to return to full production by July 23, but that there might be fewer people than usual. The company said the Rosebe gold miners' organization, which represents the interests of miners, agreed to restart the mine after meeting with management and the company's medical team on July 15. "View details

[Zambia's state-owned investment sector will be the operator of future mines] it is reported that in order to play a more active role in mineral assets, Zambia's state-owned investment sector will operate mines as a mineral operator, not as a minority investor. Investment holding Company (ZCCM-IH), which is controlled by the industrial development company (IDC), is the country's mining investment arm and owns minority stakes in mines such as First Quantum,Kansanshi and Mopani. Its largest shareholding is Konkola copper mine (KCM), which owns 20.6 per cent, while Vedanta Resources owns the remaining 79.4 per cent. "View details

[Minmetals rare earths: first-half net profit increased by 189% muri 262% compared with the same period last year] recently, Minmetals rare earths issued a performance forecast that the net profit in the first half is expected to be 140 million yuan-175 million yuan, an increase of 189.30% Mui 261.63% over the same period last year. Up to now, Ganxian Hongjin rare Earth Company, a separate enterprise owned by the company, has received a total of 155 million yuan in relocation compensation and relocation rewards. during the reporting period, the company recognized asset disposal income of about 69.82 million yuan and non-operating income of about 25.37 million yuan according to the progress of relocation liquidation. In addition, the company's main merchandise sales gross margin increased year-on-year and the relocation of inventory surplus, also contributed to the pre-increase in performance. "View details

[Shenghe Resources: MPMO, a subsidiary shareholding company, signed a merger agreement and plan with companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange] recently, Shenghe Resources issued an announcement that MPMO, a shareholding subsidiary of Leshan Shenghe, a holding subsidiary, and Fortress Value Acquisition Corp., a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange. And other relevant parties signed the merger Agreement and Plan. All shares in MPMO are proposed to be priced at $719 million for Fortress Value Acquisition Corp. at the price of $10 per share. Donovan's shares. MPMO currently has a total of 1110.98 shares, with Leshan holding 110.98 preferred shares. "View details

[Bohai shares: investment in the construction of 300000 tons / year hazardous waste recycling project] Bohai shares announced on the evening of July 22 that the company signed a contract with the government of Zhe Wang Town, Ganyu District, Lianyungang City. the company will set up a project company to invest in the construction of 300000 tons / year hazardous waste recycling project, mainly to deal with industrial hazardous waste in Lianyungang City, while taking into account the comprehensive disposal of hazardous waste in other areas of Jiangsu Province. The registered capital of the company is 150 million yuan, and the company subscribes to contribute 79.5 million yuan, accounting for 53% of the shares. Yucheng Zhiyuan Environmental Science and Technology (Xuzhou) Co., Ltd. subscribed to 70.5 million yuan, accounting for 47% of the shares.

Macro focus


According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the G20 digital economy ministers' meeting will be held by video on July 22 and 2020. Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, led a delegation to attend the meeting and made a speech. With regard to smart cities, Miao Wei introduced the concept and practice of the development of smart cities in China, as well as typical applications such as mobile payment, smart health care, urban brain, and communication big data itinerary cards, and said that China is willing to work with G20 members to carry out practical exchanges and cooperation in the field of smart cities to jointly promote smart city cooperation to a higher level.

The SASAC of the State Council held a mid-year video forum of responsible persons of the local SASAC, which pointed out that we should unswervingly strengthen, optimize, optimize and expand state-owned enterprises, strive to optimize and stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain, highlight scientific and technological innovation, and actively develop strategic emerging industries. cultivate more leading enterprises and invisible champions. Highlight the three-year action on the reform of state-owned enterprises, focus on key points, make up for weaknesses, strengthen innovation-driven development, step up efforts to tackle key core technologies, strengthen strategic guidance in planning, and speed up the optimization and structural adjustment of state-owned capital.

On the evening of July 22nd, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the gem reform and pilot registration of accepted enterprises. Shenzhen Minbao Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. applied for IPO, Changhai shares and Laimei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. to apply for refinancing.


According to Johns Hopkins University data, as of 05:34 EDT on the 22nd, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States reached 3941741, with the death toll reaching 142756. Compared with the evening of July 21, there were about 50,000 more confirmed cases.

Total annualized sales of existing homes in the United States in June: 391, expected: 478, published: 472. Total sales of existing homes in the United States rose at an annualized pace in June, the biggest increase since records began in 1968.

Interest rates in all BRICS central banks are already below 5 per cent. Mizuho said central bank policy rates in major emerging economies had fallen and believed the downward trend needed to continue.

Terminal information

[auto giant Daimler may cut 30,000 jobs] Daimler could cut up to 30,000 jobs worldwide. Wilfried Porth, the company's head of personnel, said this month that at least 15000 jobs must be cut to avoid further layoffs. The latest financial report shows that the company lost $1.9 billion in the second quarter.

[Changhong Meiling: being included in the "entity list" by the US Department of Commerce will not have a significant impact on the company's operations] Changhong Meiling announcement, the company has recently been included in the "entity list" by the US Department of Commerce. Up to now, the company purchases a small number of alternative American accessories every year; the company does not rely on American technology; and the company exports less business to the United States, which will not have a significant impact on the company's operations. The operation of the company is normal, and this inclusion in the "entity list" will not have a material impact on the day-to-day operation of the company.

[wave Group: the first batch to join China Mobile's 5G special network sailing plan] according to the Tide Group, on July 22, a press conference on the launch plan of China Mobile's 5G special network was solemnly held on the Internet, sponsored by China Mobile, "the Future of 5G Private Network, enjoy all kinds of knowledge," and the launch plan of China Mobile 5G Private Network was solemnly held online. Chaochao, as an excellent partner of China Mobile and one of the four core manufacturers of the 5G special network sailing plan, joined the first batch of "sailing plan" together with mainstream CT manufacturers.

[car] Tesla: total production of electric vehicles in the second quarter was 82272, down 20 per cent from the previous quarter. Of this total, second-quarter production of Model 3Compact Y was 75946, down 13 per cent from the previous quarter, down 13 per cent from the previous quarter and 6326 from the previous quarter, down 59 per cent from the previous quarter.

Related market

[China Power Union: the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to increase by 6% in the second half of the year] according to the latest statistics released by the State Energy Administration, the electricity consumption of the whole society in China in the first half of the year was 3.35 trillion kWh, down 1.3% from the same period last year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the China Light and Power Union predicts that the growth rate of electricity consumption will continue to pick up, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 6

[crude oil] the operating rate of the East Coast refinery of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA):) fell to an all-time low last week.

[Baltic dry bulk freight index hit a new low in more than a month, demand for sea isthmus and Panama ships fell] the Baltic dry bulk freight index fell 121 points, or 7.6%, to 1473 points on Wednesday, the lowest since June 17. The capesize index fell 303 points, or 11.1%, to 2426, with an average daily profit of $2515 to $20120. The Panamanian freight index fell 80 points, or 5.7%, to 1335, while daily profit fell $724 to $12012. The index of super-convenient ships rose 3 points to 932.

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