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The third round of lifting and lowering of high-output and high-stock coke has been started.
Jul 21,2020 08:09CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: July 18, 2020 National Competition China International Futures Special event held online, but also the sixth event of the National Competition. The online event with the theme of "Investment Strategy Exchange and sharing meeting in the second half of 2020" is co-sponsored by China International Futures and hosted by Futures Business School. China International Futures has added 65 internal awards to the actual competition, with a total bonus of 1.23 million. At the meeting, the third runner-up in the weight group of the 11th Real offer Competition, the gold medal mentor of Futures Daily Real Competition, Zou Jun, Chairman and Investment Director of Shenzhen Jun Ruifeng Capital, and Li Feng, the winner of many real disk competitions, gave an in-depth explanation on the black market analysis, futures thinking and operation after the epidemic and interacted with the audience online. The online event was watched by more than 2000 people.

Zou Jun said that trading must form an independent trading system, whether it is fundamental research or technical research, there must be an overall analysis system. Fundamentals include macro fundamentals and industrial fundamentals, macro fundamentals determine the direction, industrial fundamentals determine the market trend and market size. The technical aspect includes K-line combination, moving average system and main technical indicators. Technical analysis is mainly used for entry point, exit point and plus (minus) warehouse point.

As we all know, whether investors can correctly interpret the fundamentals depends on the depth of understanding of the industry. "when there are differences between fundamentals and technical aspects, it is often the time when there is an inflection point in the market. Psychological game is very important in trading. Futures trading is a game in which a small number of people make money. When most people decide on a direction, this direction is often reversed. " Zou Jun said.

With regard to the black system, what is the recent trading logic? How should traders combine fundamentals to make correct judgments?

Zou Jun believes that the general pattern of environmental protection has not changed, coking is still a key industry of environmental protection, and investors should pay attention to the fundamental information of the industry. For example, since 2018, environmental protection has been an important disturbing factor in the coke market. The change of environmental protection policy in recent years is a gradual process from planning to improvement, from introduction to implementation. The focus of pollution control is air pollution "water pollution" soil pollution, the order of treatment is from visible pollution to invisible pollution, with the progress of pollution battle, the environmental protection level of the industry involved has also been improved, and equipment technology has been upgraded. Short-term labor pains in exchange for long-term benefits, the general pattern of ecological environment protection has not changed.

The reporter found that in recent years, the implementation of the environmental protection production restriction policy has had a real impact on the prices of many commodities, especially black commodities, and has also become a barometer of the expected adjustment of market prices.

In addition, the Futures Daily reporter noted that in early May this year, coke continued to rise due to the improvement of the downstream steel market. On May 21, the Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Shandong Provincial Department of Ecological Environment jointly issued the "notice on the implementation of Coking Project list Management and the work of" determining production by Coal. "as soon as the news came out, under the premise of strong demand for coke, The market expects that there will be a regional shortage of coke on the spot. During the period when the steel market began to oscillate and the increase has shrunk, coke has become the fastest rising variety in the black system.

The reporter learned from business people that coke has risen six rounds this year, and so far, steel companies have reduced the purchase price of coke for two rounds. The production situation of coking enterprises has not changed much, the overall starting level remains high, the shipping enthusiasm is good, and individual inventory accumulates slightly. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, some enterprises with higher inventory have control over the arrival of goods, the willingness to reduce prices is not reduced, and the scope of the second round has a tendency to expand. The mentality of the port is weak and the transaction is deserted.

According to the monitoring of the latest forecast trend of the national coke price on July 17, 2020 by the China report Hall, the average national coke price on July 17, 2020 was 1775 yuan / ton, and on July 16, the average price was 1777.78 yuan / ton, down 2.78 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, a drop of 0.16%.

With regard to the price trend in the later period, Zou Jun believes that coke production remains high in the short term, steel mill profits move further down, and the spot price of coke period continues to rise.

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