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Short-term supply is still tight and the price of Shanghai aluminum is on the strong side.
Jul 20,2020 08:39CST
translation
Source:International trade futures
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News: 1, event Review: (1) Chen Yulu, Deputy Governor of the people's Bank of China, attended the video conference of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. The meeting held that due to the impact of the epidemic, the outlook for the global economy is still uncertain, but it is expected to gradually recover. The meeting agreed that various policy tools will continue to be adopted to deal with the impact of the epidemic, resist downside risks, maintain financial stability, and support economic recovery. (2) National energy production and consumption gradually rebounded in the first half of the year. Electricity consumption in the whole society fell 6.5% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Since April, electricity consumption has achieved positive growth compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate has increased month by month. In June, the freight volume of China's whole society increased by 3.9% compared with the same period last year, the national railway freight volume increased by 7%, and the port cargo throughput increased by 6.9%, the highest monthly growth rate so far this year. (3) the national general public budget revenue in the first half of the year was 9.6176 trillion yuan, down 10.8% from the same period last year. Of this total, the stamp duty on securities transactions totaled 89.2 billion yuan, an increase of 16 percent over the same period last year. The Ministry of Finance said that the results of promoting the resumption of work and production and helping enterprises to bail out enterprises continued to show. Fiscal revenue in June increased by 3.2% compared with the same period last year, changing from negative to positive for the first time this year. (4) the IMF: Fed has room to increase asset purchases and forward guidance; the US economy is expected to plunge 37% in the second quarter and shrink by 6.6% for the whole of 2020. The economic outlook of the United States is at risk, including an increase in the number of diagnosed pneumonia and an increase in systemic poverty.

2, market review: Shanghai Aluminum 2008 contract opened at 14000 yuan / ton, the price fluctuated higher, closing at 14155 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton. The Shanghai Aluminum Index reduced its position by 3000 hands to 396000 hands. LME aluminum fell 0.03 per cent (15:00 price).

On the spot side, the average price of Guangdong Nanzhu aluminum market is 14300 yuan / ton, down 170yuan / ton; the average price of aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River spot market is 14370 yuan / ton, down 160yuan / ton; SMM aluminum spot price is 280yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton. South China market circulation is more relaxed, downstream bargain buying, supply and demand trading atmosphere improved, spot rising water enterprises stable; East China market long single supply circulation, traders to sell at a high price, downstream acceptance sentiment has improved, the overall transaction is better than the previous day.

Logical point of view: Friday non-ferrous plate across the board rebounded floating red, Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated higher, Shanghai aluminum main closing up 180 yuan / ton. The recent macro interference has increased, the market is worried about the escalation of trade frictions, and the domestic GDP in the third quarter is much higher than expected, causing the market to worry about marginal policy tightening. At present, the decline of electrolytic aluminum inventory slows down, at a time when aluminum prices are rising sharply, the bulls take profits, and the domestic Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts have risen, and the risk of further squeezing of Shanghai aluminum has decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes of Shanghai aluminum positions and warehouse receipts. Electrolytic aluminum inside and outside the set to continue to hold (Builun aluminum to sell Shanghai aluminum)

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