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New change! Three kinds of "oil" grabs the throne of "profit king" and iron ore becomes the "loss king" unexpectedly.
Jul 20,2020 08:07CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: the 14th National Futures (options) Real Trading Competition (hereinafter referred to as the National Competition) and the Seventh Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition (hereinafter referred to as the Global Competition) have started for nearly 4 months, and the participants' enthusiasm has not diminished. As of last Friday, a total of 85916 participants had signed up for the national competition, with a total capital of 2.22 billion yuan and a cumulative number of profit accounts of 17328, accounting for 32.27% of the total number of accounts participating in transactions, with a cumulative net profit of 856 million yuan. As of July 15, there were 2716 global competition accounts, with a total participation fund of 160 million US dollars, and a cumulative profit account of 852, accounting for 31.37% of the total number of participating accounts.

The cumulative net profit of the National Games account fluctuated last week, with the weekly net profit reaching as high as 1.97 billion yuan, which fell back to 856 million yuan on Friday. Analysts believe that this is largely related to the volatility of stock index futures last week. According to the overall variety profit and loss statistics of last week's national competition, in last Monday's profit leader, CSB 500 and CSI 300, the profits once reached 192 million yuan and 116 million yuan respectively, but quickly turned into a loss-taking variety. As of last Friday, CSI 300 and CSB 500 ranked first and second in terms of loss in the variety profit and loss statistics, with the participating accounts losing 105 million yuan and 88.06 million yuan respectively on CSI 300 and CSI 500 futures.

"Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index as a whole showed a large decline, and the CSI 300 Index was slightly better than the SSE 50 and CSI 500 in terms of index performance." Wang Junku, an analyst at Zheshang Futures Stock Index Futures, said: "the large fluctuations in the market are mainly due to policy factors, and then affected by market sentiment fluctuations." According to him, in terms of policy, a series of financial regulatory policies were issued over the weekend before last week, including the emphasis at the meeting of the Financial Committee on "zero tolerance" for crimes in the capital market, the strict prohibition of banking and insurance institutions from illegally participating in over-the-counter capital allocation, and the addition of an upper limit on the size of funds, mainly to deal with the problem of excessive market growth last week, overheated investment sentiment, and obvious increases in individual stocks and even industry valuations, which led to the creation of asset bubbles. It is conducive to guiding the long-term and healthy development of the capital market, but this series of financial regulatory policies will become negative factors in the market in the short term. The reduction of the holdings of national funds and the restriction of over-the-counter capital allocation directly lead to a large outflow of funds from the national team and overseas. As a result, the market fell sharply last week. "in fact, the rebound in economic indicators in the second quarter reflects the improvement in China's economic recovery, coupled with the relatively low valuation of A-shares, which will attract overseas capital back to A-shares." Wang Junxue said.

In terms of commodity varieties, compared with the previous week, the overall variety profit and loss statistics of the national competition also showed great changes in the top three. The oil plate became the new "dark horse" last week, and crude oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil were the top three varieties in the competition account profit. As of last Friday, the participating accounts had accumulated profits of 65.77 million yuan in crude oil futures, 53.01 million yuan in palm oil futures, 49.5 million yuan in rapeseed oil futures and 49.42 million yuan in silver futures. Iron ore, nickel and soybean meal futures are the three commodity categories with more losses in the participating accounts. Among them, the participating accounts lost 78.38 million yuan on iron ore futures, 56.14 million yuan on nickel futures and 54.08 million yuan on soybean meal futures.

Zhang Yimeng, an oil researcher at Huarong Rongda Futures, said that the bearish attitude of traders on palm oil led to a slowdown in imports in recent months. With the orderly resumption of domestic work and production, oil consumption increased rapidly, leading to a continuous decline in palm oil inventories. The average inventory is close to 2016 and 2017 levels. At the same time, imports of rapeseed oil have shrunk, and continued low inventories have attracted frenzied speculation, contributing to the rise in palm oil. In addition, palm oil producers released data on a sharp increase in June, but the market questioned the authenticity of the data and is expected to reduce production by 10% month-on-month in July.

"the advantage of trading brown oil lies in the sharp decline in consumption expectations during the epidemic, but the success of China's epidemic prevention policy has led to a rapid recovery of residents' normal life, and the issuance of food and beverage consumption vouchers has boosted oil consumption and led to a rapid growth in domestic demand. The domestic inventory of palm oil itself is at a low level in recent years, the production area has been expected to reduce production since last year, and the import policy is stable, making the cost of palm oil the most robust of the three major oils. " Zhang Yimeng said that in the future, however, palm oil traders should pay attention to the increase in palm oil production in the third quarter, which will continue until October, and the increase in production stocks will dampen palm oil prices. Domestic palm oil stocks usually hit bottom at the end of August and early September, and the recent rise in palm oil is expected to boost traders' imports, and the sharp rise in recent months may lead to an early arrival of inventory bottoms. In addition, the violence of rapeseed oil may lead to policy regulation and control, affecting the palm oil market.

In addition, it is worth noting that the market volatility has intensified, prompting the participants' enthusiasm for options to continue to rise, the number of participants in the national right group continues to increase, and the performance of the contestants is very outstanding. As of last Friday, the number of accounts participating in the national competition rights group had increased to 6377, and 11 of the top 30 accounts had royalty returns of more than 500 per cent, of which the highest was 2873 per cent. Temporarily ranking first in the national competition rights group is the "crown investment (robust)" account from Haitong Futures. The individual group of Zheng Shang Institute options Special Award has 3229 accounts to participate, and the "no wind without waves" account from Huatai Futures ranks first temporarily, with a royalty income of 2.4581 million yuan. Zheng Shang Institute options Special Award Institution Group participates in 160. the account of "Financial Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneurship Private Equity Fund" from Soochow Futures ranks first temporarily, with a royalty income of 560000 yuan.

In terms of global competition, as of July 8, in the special awards of Zhi Shang Institute, the "Guofa Zhongjin" account of American Yingtuo Securities temporarily ranked first in the WTI crude oil options group, the "forge ahead" account of China International Futures (Hong Kong) temporarily ranked first in the CBOT soybean futures group, and the "Guofa Zhongjin" of American Yingtuo Securities temporarily ranked first in the COMEX gold options group. The "Yan Sheng China CTA-1" account of Yuanda Futures (Hong Kong) temporarily ranks first in the AUD / US dollar futures group, Xueying Securities's "Xueying 971025" account temporarily ranks first in the mini-NASDAQ 971025 index futures group, and the "William" of Hong Kong Jinshan Financial temporarily ranks first in the 10-year US Treasury group. In the ranking of gross palm oil revenue of the Malaysia Exchange, the "open-minded" account of Secondary one futures temporarily ranks first, while the "indestructible king" account of China's new Yongan futures temporarily ranks first in the ranking of crude palm oil trading volume. Among the three individual awards on the Singapore Exchange, the stock index futures group temporarily ranks first in the "whole-share good" account of Secondary one futures, the "TD" account of CUHK Futures (Hong Kong) is temporarily ranked first in the foreign exchange futures group, and the "bricklayer" account of Singapore Kaiji Securities temporarily ranks first in the commodity futures group.

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