SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes panel: yesterday's aluminum prices continued to pull back, Lun aluminum closed at 1678.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.24%, down 4 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract fell 1.24%, down 180 yuan / ton, closed at 14305 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 96.041.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, there were 67400 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia in the United States on July 14. There were 3.4315 million confirmed cases and 136400 deaths in the United States at 2030 on July 15, up to Beijing time. U.S. crude oil imports fell 1.8 million barrels a day last week, the biggest weekly decline since 2016. EIA crude oil stocks fell by 7.493 million barrels that week and are expected to fall by 2.1 million barrels. (liduoqi) 3) the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments deployed to carry out new energy vehicle activities to the countryside, and 10 car companies participated in (Ledouqi) 4) the central bank carried out 400 billion yuan 1-year mid-term loans to facilitate (MLF) operation, winning the bid interest rate of 2.95% and 2.95% last time. The central bank said that the MLF operation is a continuation of two MLF maturities this month and a targeted medium-term loan facility (TMLF) maturity, in which TMLF can continue to roll for a total period of 3 years. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) the annual production capacity of domestic prebaked anode is expected to increase by 4.36 million tons from 2020 to 2022, and the expansion trend in southwest China is obvious. (neutral) 2) the quotation of alumina market yesterday was basically maintained compared with the previous day, and the transaction scale was relatively limited. From the seller's point of view, the quotation of the alumina plant is strong, and the price of some holding traders is slightly lower, but the overall quotation is maintained at more than 2480 yuan / ton; the buyer still maintains a wait-and-see mentality, and the electrolytic aluminum plant and traders do not have a strong willingness to purchase. (neutral) 3) according to the Federation of passengers, retail sales in the automobile market got off to a weak start in July, with daily retail sales averaging 25000 vehicles in the first week of July, down 15 per cent from the same period last year and 3 per cent lower than in the first week of June. Retail performance was weak in the first week. Retail sales in the second week of July averaged 31000 vehicles a day, down 5 per cent from a year earlier and 21 per cent from the same period in June. Overall retail sales fell 9% from July 1 to 12 from a year earlier, down 15% from the same period in June. (bullish)
Yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi was between 14820 and 14840 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi was slightly higher, and the price in the two places was 75 yuan / ton lower than the previous day, and the morning discount was near Pingshui, 11; Aluminum fell back in the later period of 00, but most of the holders are reluctant to follow the sharp price reduction, the price adjustment space is only less than 20 yuan / ton, and the basic rising water to the plate is around 40 muri 60 yuan / ton, but there are not many holders who actually follow the quotation. The transaction price in Hangzhou is 14830 Mel 14850 yuan / ton. In the morning, traders made active inquiries, and the holders' willingness to ship goods was low and relatively high, and the transaction heat gradually increased after 10: 00, but in view of the fact that a large family still did not carry out a procurement plan in eastern China yesterday, it was difficult for traders to actually increase their own trading volume. trading between the two sides is more general. Spot transactions this morning focused on rising water around 300 yuan / ton in the same month.
Summary: in the macro aspect, the domestic sound and loose monetary policy continues to optimize market liquidity, and there is a lot of good news. Fundamentals, although the current inventory warehouse receipts, the supply side of the tight to give aluminum price support, but the impact of the weakening of fundamentals can not be ignored.