SMM News: last night 11: 00, it is reported that US Secretary of State Pompeo has just announced that the United States will impose sanctions on some Huawei employees, and he also announced that Washington will announce new visa restrictions for technology companies like Huawei later on the 15th. Earlier, Pompeo declared that the United States "welcomes" Britain's ban on Huawei, and his latest statement on the 15th claimed that Britain's move is conducive to transatlantic security.
At the meeting of OPEC + Ministerial Supervisory Committee last night, Russia and Saudi Arabia both stressed that loosening production cuts would not lead to a flood of supply in the market, and both of them tended to support a reduction of production reduction restrictions in August.
Saudi Energy Minister Abdul-Aziz said OPEC + the implementation rate of the June production reduction agreement was 107%, and Saudi oil exports did not increase in August. He also stressed that the compensatory production reduction of OPEC + member countries is a key criterion, and the effective production reduction will exceed 7.7 million barrels per day. Russian Energy Minister Novak also expressed a tendency to relax production cuts. Novak said that seeing early signs of a recovery in global crude oil demand, it was in line with the market trend to cut the production limit to 7.7 million b / d. However, he also stressed that the risk of an increase in the second wave of new crown pneumonia still exists, it is still important for OPEC to continue to work together, and Russia fully complies with the requirements of production reduction.
At 11:00 last night, the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) ended. The meeting finally decided to reduce production reduction in August, the next OPEC Technical Committee will be held on August 17, and the Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) will be held on August 18. The Saudi energy minister said the effective crude oil production cut in August was between 810 and 8.2 million barrels per day.
After the news was announced, the US and cloth oil rose in the short term, and the rise of WTI crude oil expanded to 2 per cent at one point. By the close of trading this morning, WTI crude oil was up 1.25%; Brent crude oil was up 1.21%; Lun copper was down 1.62%; and gold was up 0.00%. American beans rose 0.54%; American soybean meal rose 0.24%; American soybean oil rose 0.86%; American sugar rose 4.76%; American cotton fell 0.69%.
In addition, the three major indexes of US stocks all closed higher, the Dow initially closed up 228 points, and the S & P and Dow both reached a five-week high.
Short-term pressure on stock index
Since July, the strong trend of the stock index has attracted market attention, but after entering this week, the trend of the stock index is obviously under pressure. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed negative for two consecutive days, and both fluctuated greatly during the day.
"yesterday, A shares maintained the trend of oscillatory consolidation throughout the day, and the market amplitude was larger. After the continuous rapid rise of the market, there is a certain degree of oscillatory adjustment, which is a normal phenomenon of market volatility. " Wang Mengying, an analyst of South China Futures Stock Index Futures, said that from the spot market, the turnover between the two cities today dropped to 1.5 trillion from 1.7 trillion of the previous day. Although the turnover is still very high, a significant decline can be seen. Some market indicators show that the market is overheating. For example, the turnover rate of Wande all-A is close to the level at the top of the calf market in 2018. At the same time, major stock indexes have made huge profits in the short term. The CSI 500 index, for example, has risen more than 13% since the beginning of July. Under such circumstances, it is normal for some funds to come out after making a profit.
Specifically, yesterday's market structure was "strong and weak", and the degree of differentiation was obvious. The main contract of IH closed down 0.77% today. If the main contract closed down 0.89%. The main contract of Magi IC closed down 1.91%. The decline in IH and IF narrowed compared with the previous day, while the decline in IC widened from the previous day. Wang Mengying believes that the pattern of "big strong and small weak" appeared in Tiantian A shares yesterday was affected by the disk structure of US stocks the night before. The night before, the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial average had a bright performance, closing up 1.34% and 2.13% respectively, while the NASDAQ gradually regained its lost ground after a deep fall, up 0.94%. "the previous day, US value stocks outperformed technology stocks, which to some extent affected the A-share market preference." She said that the net outflow of northbound capital today was only about 2.7 billion, which was significantly lower than that of the previous day. Therefore, although US stocks continue to disturb A shares in mood, yesterday's selling pressure mainly came from domestic self-owned capital selling.
In the view of Jin Hui, an analyst of Zhejiang Merchant Futures Stock Index Futures, there are three main reasons why the index is under pressure in the near future. First, the weekend meeting of the Financial Committee stressed "zero tolerance" for crimes committed in capital markets, and the strengthening of financial regulation suppressed short-term risk appetite. Second, the early northward capital inflows continue to form a strong support to the index on the demand side, but the amount of northward capital inflows has slowed significantly recently, with a large net outflow on Tuesday, and the support of northward funds to the index has also weakened. Third, the recent upward range of the index is relatively fast, and technically it also needs to undergo a period of oscillatory consolidation. Due to the joint action of many factors, the pressure above the short-term index increases obviously.
For the follow-up outlook, Jin Hui believes that the index can continue to maintain a long line of thinking. "from the perspective of corporate profit prospects, because the trend of epidemic prevention and control in China is improving, counter-cyclical policies continue to develop, and both ends of supply and demand continue to pick up, the follow-up corporate profit outlook still supports the index." He said that from the perspective of risk preference, although the short-term Finance Committee meeting stressed that supervision would suppress market sentiment, it actually stressed that "zero tolerance" for crimes committed by the capital market is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the capital market, and the progress in the construction of relevant systems will form a strong support for the index in the long run.
From the perspective of monetary policy, Jin Hui believes that there is some concern about the recent shift in monetary policy, but on June 30, the central bank decided to cut re-lending and rediscount interest rates from July 1st, as well as the central bank to carry out 400 billion MLF operations to hedge the July maturity volume to improve short-term liquidity, various signs show that the current monetary policy has not turned to tightening, the follow-up index upward momentum still exists, can continue to maintain a long line of thinking.
In addition, Wang Mengying said that the recent change in the price of the index has a certain guiding significance for short-term market fluctuations. For example, on July 8, the three major futures indexes did not rise as much as the spot index, and the discount status changed from the previous premium to the discount. In the following trading days, although the futures index did not show a significant decline, but the upward momentum significantly weakened. The decline of the three major futures indexes yesterday was not as deep as the spot index, and the rising discount also showed significant changes, in which IH full contract turned to rising water, IF main and next month contracts turned to rising water, and IC only the main contract turned to rising water. "from the change in the situation of rising and sticking water, the current market funds still maintain a bullish view on the future market, and the funds that are bullish on IH and IF are more bullish on IC." Wang Mengying said.
In terms of specific operation, Jinhui suggests that multiple orders can continue to be held in the early period of the index, and positions can be increased in every callback. In addition, due to the recent acceleration of plate rotation, hedging strategies are recommended to avoid.
Can the grease remain strong?
In terms of commodities, the oil plate has been particularly prominent in recent days. Recently, the three major oil contracts in the futures market reached their highest level since March after oscillatory consolidation. Among them, rapeseed oil outperformed others, breaking through the 8000-point mark.
"in fact, recently, as the macro-economy has gradually picked up and crude oil has bottomed out, the valuation of the entire commodity market has entered a stage of re-repair, and the oil sector has also risen to a certain extent against this background." Xiang Bo, an agricultural analyst at Zheshang Futures, said that the oil has not been greatly affected during the epidemic, and its fundamentals are still better than in previous years, which makes its valuation and repair process more smooth.
According to him, from the most intuitive inventory data, in China, soybean oil depots rose during the period of centralized prevention and control of the epidemic, but with the gradual resumption of work and production across the country, demand rebounded and fell back to a low level over the years, with some accumulation at this stage, but still at the average level over the years, while port palm oil stocks continued to decline, rapeseed oil stocks remained low, and the three major oil stocks were all at a low level over the years. Overseas, palm oil inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia are lower than last year, while US soybean oil inventories have been high over the years, but global oil inventories have fallen back to levels seen before the trade friction between China and the US.
According to Zhang Yimeng, an oil researcher in Huarong Rongda Futures, the common factors of the three major oil increases are, first of all, the resumption of domestic work and production, the further improvement of economic vitality, and the rapid recovery of oil demand. Secondly, the supply of some oils is tight in the short term, and the mutual substitution between oils and fats has produced a linkage market. In addition, with the quantitative easing of the global market, futures contracts with financial attributes re-find the value balance after meeting supply and demand.
For rapeseed oil, which has the brightest performance recently, Xiang Bo said that its supply and demand situation is significantly better than soybean oil and palm oil. In recent years, the planting area of domestic rapeseed has continued to decline, the output has decreased, the pre-storage of rapeseed oil has been completely out of storage, and the policy supply pressure has been reduced. Coupled with the tense relations between China and Canada, rapeseed imports have declined sharply, and the overall domestic supply is shrinking. On the demand side, after the continuous rise of rapeseed oil, the widening oil price gap suppresses part of the alternative demand for rapeseed oil, but the demand is still large, and to a certain extent, the supply falls short of demand. At present, there is heavy rain in the south, and the purchase and sale of rapeseed is tight under the influence of logistics, which also supports the price of rapeseed to a certain extent. However, when the rapeseed oil price broke the 8000 mark, we can see that some data began to change, the spot basis, which has been relatively strong, began to decline, and the price difference between domestic imported rapeseed oil and Canadian imported rapeseed oil also reached a higher level since 2019. These factors may indicate that the rise of rapeseed oil has a weakening trend, which may change from unilateral upward to strong oscillatory trend, but the strong pattern is difficult to reverse.
On the whole, the difference between the strength of the three major oils lies in the supply side. Zhang Yimeng also said that due to the recent expansion of soybean meal storage, oil factories reduced pressing, soybean oil inventory is in a flat period, inventory is lower than the five-year average. At the beginning of this week, there were rumors of temporary detention of ships in the sampling inspection of palm oil, pushing the already tight supply of palm oil to the forefront of the wind and waves. On the evening of the 14th, this news was falsified, and spot merchants said that palm oil delivery was normal, which showed that palm oil prices under low inventory could not stand the wind and grass. At the same time, recently, rapeseed oil experienced several rounds of temporary storage auctions, and the auction prices were all higher than the futures prices at that time, and the spot price of rapeseed oil rose sharply in September. The tightening of quality inspection of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in Canada caused domestic rapeseed oil stocks to lie flat at historical lows. Under the expectation of a gradual recovery in demand, the State Reserve declined, imports and production shrank, and the contradiction between supply and demand attracted market funds to push up rapeseed oil prices.
As for the future, Zhang Yimeng said that due to the adequate supply of soybean oil, soybean inventories can continue to grow in the second half of the year while maintaining high pressure, and soybean oil inventory pressure may be highlighted in the fourth quarter. With regard to palm oil, the recent export data of palm oil producing areas are better than expected. Indonesia's firewood policy achieved its annual target of 43.4% in the first half of the year. With the expected rise in crude oil prices in the second half of the year, the firewood policy of palm oil producing areas may be fully implemented. For rapeseed oil, the decline in state reserve stocks, imports and production to maintain contraction is still the main line of rapeseed oil fundamentals in the future, supply can not be effectively solved, rapeseed oil prices may approach 10,000 points in the future. In addition, it has recently been reported that the global epidemic has led to an increase in snack food consumption, and oil consumption has a substantial growth potential in the post-epidemic era. in the short-term oil rise, rapeseed oil is larger than palm oil, palm oil is larger than soybean oil, and in the medium term, palm oil is larger than rape oil. rapeseed oil is bigger than soybean oil.
In operation, Xiang Bo said: "at present, crude oil and macro are still in a state of recovery, the bullish sentiment in the market still exists, it is difficult for the whole oil plate to fall deeply, it is still recommended to roll more mainly, but it needs to be operated cautiously under the strong oscillation pattern."
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