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[SMM Metal Breakfast] Mine interference aggravates Shanghai Copper piercing through 53000 Gate * Shanghai Zinc Rapid attack * Iron Mine soars by more than 5%
Jul 14,2020 07:32CST
[SMM Metal Breakfast] Shanghai copper pierced the 53000 gate * the reduction of copper strip exports led to a decline in the operating rate in June * scrap copper consumption strengthened * the operating rate of aluminum foil maintained more than 80% in June * Shanghai lead is still expected to strengthen * Shanghai zinc rush to break away from the fundamentals * Silicon enterprises start work in the first month of the flood season, regional differences in production increase and decrease parallel * iron ore soars more than 5% * Russia Norilsk Nickel Company has another fuel leak * In June, the net inflow of global gold ETF was 104t * large silicon plants in Xinjiang resumed production.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[Summit Forecast] is the new high bull market in copper prices coming? Watch this big talk!

[overnight market] non-ferrous metals rose across the board. Shanghai copper rose more than 5% in intraday trading.

Outlook of Today's Financial and Economic data: focus on China's June trade account and the monthly CPI rate after the June quarterly adjustment in the United States

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: mine interference aggravates Shanghai copper piercing the 53000 gate] from the pace of recovery after the epidemic at both ends of supply and demand, short-term supply reduction is still not the main contradiction of fundamentals, especially after domestic demand enters the off-season but overseas takes over the baton of recovery, the overall demand is resilient and the fundamentals are strong. "View details

[SMM analysis: the start-up rate of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises fell in June as a result of the export reduction in the off-season] the overall operating rate of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises in June was 65.89%, down 3.42% from the same period last year and 0.05% from the previous month. After entering the traditional off-season of plate and strip enterprises in June, most enterprises report that the number of orders began to decline, but the impact on June output is not significant, roughly the same as in May. "View details

[SMM analysis: scrap copper consumption strengthens month-on-month to 78.66%] according to SMM survey data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in June was 78.66%, a decrease of 1.70% from the previous month, and an increase of 3.01% over the same period last year. The order concentration effect embodied in April continued to weaken in May and June, and enterprise stock orders decreased. Orders for refined copper rods are obviously impacted by scrap copper rods, and it is expected that the operating rate of 7 fine copper rod enterprises will further drop to 76.79%. "View details

[SMM analysis: air conditioning foil and food foil perform well. The operating rate of aluminum foil in June was maintained at more than 80%. In June, the average weighted operating rate of China's aluminum foil industry was 83.71%, down 0.15% from the previous month, and 4.11% lower than last year. The overall stability of the aluminum foil market in June is more stable than that in May, and the prosperity of the aluminum foil industry is higher than that of the strip industry. "View details

[SMM data: electrolytic aluminum inventory of 712000 tons is flat compared with the previous week] on July 13, SMM counted domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 712000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday. Inventory in East China and South China Sea is a little tired, while inventory in Gongyi region has decreased. "View details

[SMM analysis: Lun lead inventory continues to decline & consumption is expected to continue to strengthen Shanghai lead] SMM believes that Lun lead inventory has continued to decline since June 17. As of July 10, LME lead inventory was 61675 tons, down 14475 tons from the high since the beginning of the year, to a certain extent, indicating that overseas consumption is recovering one after another, adding that the lead consumption peak season in the third quarter may be coming. However, the position of the domestic Shanghai lead 2007 contract remains high, which deviates from the warehouse receipt inventory, and the macro atmosphere has improved, and the short-term lead price is expected to rise. "View details

[SMM analysis: who touched the nerve by the rapid advance of Shanghai Zinc? Detached from fundamentals? SMM believes that under the optimistic background of the capital market, the market hype about the expectation of the peak consumption season has pushed zinc prices back up strongly, but macroscopically, there is still great uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations and the development of the epidemic in the United States. It should be noted that China's flood control and flood fighting has entered a critical period, the water level in many places has exceeded records, and the emergency response has risen to level II. We should pay attention to the impact of the flood season on the start-up of local enterprises. "View details

[SMM data: Silicon enterprises start work in the first month of the flood season, regional differences in production increase and decrease in parallel] the operating rate of the metal silicon industry surveyed by SMM in June was 37.5%, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month, and an increase of 3.1% over the same period last year. "View details

[SMM Steel] Futures rebar, hot coil, iron ore rebound new highs, but the spot rebound has been less than futures, the basis continues to converge, resulting in current arbitrage big steel trade losses, such as East China Hangzhou market once this batch of steel traders stop loss, Hangzhou market de-treasury will accelerate, regain the dominant market position in the south. Although the rebound in the general direction is still on the way. No, no. However, short-term inventory and flood season will still suppress the rebound, while strong expectations will have a greater impact on the spot once the tide ebbs. Therefore, the spot short-rhythm operation still recommends that it is hard to cash profits every high, and then gradually replenish inventory when turning back; between 3780 and 3820 of the main contract of Futures Steel RB2010, it is recommended to make more profits and leave the market, and short-rhythm empty orders and light positions are involved in making mistakes, and then make more orders when the tracks are in place.

SMM Hot Volume: the price gap between the north and the south is gradually expanding. Is East China facing an incremental crisis? According to the feedback from SMM Steel from steel mills and traders at present, a large number of northern resources have not yet been sent to the East China market. Only some of the out-of-stock traders have a small number of lock-in resources, the northern steel works said that the recent local and surrounding areas can be digested, southward is not the best choice, so it is mainly wait-and-see. At the same time, Angang and Bengang, two large steel mills in the north, gave a 30% discount to the resources of the East China long Association in July. Therefore, in the short term, the supply of resources in the East China market is still relatively tight, the fundamentals are still strong relative to other markets, and short-term spot prices are expected to remain strong. "View details

[SMM brief comment: supply concerns hit iron ore soaring by more than 5%] according to SMM, although the previous production restrictions in Tangshan area are strict, but the actual implementation is lower than expected, the current period of port dredging in Tangshan has maintained an increasing trend, with an average of nearly 340000 tons per day. With the recent increase in arrival and the relief of superimposed pressure on the port, the inventory of the two ports in Tangshan increased slightly compared with the previous month. The recent arrivals of Qingdao and Rizhao ports have dropped by 24% month-on-month, and the overall steady increase in superposition and thinning of ports has led to an upward trend in the price of imported minerals in Shandong. However, it is worth noting that, in view of the recent rapid rise in iron ore prices, steel mills mainly purchase on demand, short-term sparse port or difficult to see a substantial increase. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[Zambian Minister of Transport and Communications tested positive for new crown virus] according to the Zambian Ministry of Health on July 12, Zambian Minister of Transport and Communications Mtotwikavvia tested positive for (Mutotwe Kafwaya) new crown virus. Mtotvikavvia also became the third cabinet minister to test positive for the new crown virus after Zambian Minister of Information and Broadcasting Dora Celia and Zambian Minister of Health Chitalu Chilufia.

[Guangyuan Zhongfu Green Aluminum Project II Project was officially put into production] at 2: 00 a.m. on July 12, Guangyuan Zhongfu Green Aluminum Project Phase II project with an annual output of 250000 tons of green aluminum project, the main transformer charging operation is normal, indicating that the project can be officially put into production. Guangyuan Zhongfu green aluminum project is invested in Guangyuan by Zhongfu Industries, a subsidiary of Henan Yulian Group (Russian Industrial Investment Group holding Company). The project has a total investment of 5 billion yuan and covers an area of 1020 mu. The main construction of an annual output of 500000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and supporting high-end aluminum-based materials processing production line. The project is divided into two phases. The first phase of the project is Linfeng Aluminum Co., Ltd., which was put into production on November 27, 2019. The second phase of the project is Zhongfu Aluminum Co., Ltd., which started in March 2020, and the busbar is electrified normally in May 2020.

[another fuel leak at Norilsk Nickel] according to Nornickel, the leak occurred around 11:15 on Sunday, July 12, 2020. Preliminary data show that nearly 44.5 tons of fuel leaked during the decompression process, which lasted about 15 minutes. "View details

[the company initially estimated the direct loss of 9.674 million yuan in the accident fire in the excellent new energy plant] at 10:00 on July 12, 2020, a fire broke out in the Dongbao plant area of Longyan excellent New Energy Co., Ltd. During equipment maintenance. After the accident, the company will immediately organize personnel to carry out on-site rescue and report to the relevant local government departments to cooperate with the emergency handling of the accident. The specific cause of the accident is still under further investigation, and rescue and follow-up work is being carried out in an orderly manner. The fire has caused 2 missing people and 3 injured. The company initially estimated that the direct loss caused by the fire is about 9.674 million yuan. The assets involved in this accident are not covered by the property insurance purchased by the company and will be included in the company's profit and loss.

[global gold ETF net inflow reached an all-time high of 104t in June] Global gold exchange-traded funds (gold ETF) had a net inflow of 104t in June, bringing the total holdings of global gold ETF to an all-time high of 3621 tonnes. Gold ETF products are based on physical gold and are increasingly favored by investors in recent years because of their convenient investment. In the first half of this year, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global investor demand for risk aversion rose sharply, further benefiting gold ETF. "View details

Yintai Gold: the net profit in the first half of the year is expected to be 600-630 million yuan, an increase of 36.97% Murray 43.81% over the same period last year. The growth in the current period is mainly due to the year-on-year rise in gold prices and the increase in profits brought about by the annual production of Qinghai Da Chaidan Mining Co., Ltd.

[Luoyang Molybdenum signed a $550 million metal flow agreement with Triple Flag] Luoyang Molybdenum recently reached a metal flow agreement with Australia's Triple Flag, under which Luoyang Molybdenum will sell 54 per cent of the gold production of the Northparkes copper and gold mine until a cumulative delivery of 630000 ounces, and 84 per cent of silver production until a cumulative delivery of 9 million ounces. Meanwhile, Toronto-based Triple Flag will make a cash advance of $550 million and pay Luoyang Molybdenum at 10 per cent of the spot price. "View details

[China's rare earth carbonate precipitation production is automated for the first time] the northern rare earth "10,000-ton light rare earth carbonate continuous production process research and industrialization" project has been reviewed by experts of China rare Earth Industry Association. It was officially confirmed as "the overall technology reached the international leading level" and was successfully put into production. This also marks the first time that China has realized the continuous and automatic production of rare earth carbonate precipitation in the rare earth industry for the first time.

[large silicon plant in Xinjiang resumes production] according to SMM research, a large silicon plant in Xinjiang ignited and resumed production last week and is expected to ship normally this Wednesday, and the number of furnaces is gradually increasing. The plant stopped production on June 6th and is expected to produce around 8000 tons in July.

[Samarco Iron Mine will reopen in December] according to local reports, Brazilian iron ore producer Samarco, a joint venture between Vale and BHP Billiton, has confirmed that it hopes to resume production by December this year. The company is expected to resume operations by the end of the year, but this week it announced a timetable for a change. The company said the restart was now 61 per cent complete. Samako (Samarco) already employs 1300 people and hopes to hire another 700 when it resumes business by the end of the year. Samarco's Ubu plant in (Anchieta), Ankieta, (EspiritoSanto) state, Esp í rito should be the first to resume activity, and other plants will gradually resume production.

Macro focus

[Li Keqiang: maintaining liquidity, reasonable, abundant and greater consumption potential] Li Keqiang said that it is necessary to enhance the timeliness of the implementation of macro policies and strive to protect the main body of the market for employment and people's livelihood. We will adhere to and fully implement a proactive fiscal policy, a prudent monetary policy and a policy of giving priority to employment, so as to benefit enterprises by reducing taxes and fees on a larger scale. Li Keqiang said that it is necessary to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, further promote and alleviate the problem of financing difficulties and expensive financing for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and use modern technological means to develop inclusive finance. to effectively increase the amount of credit and significantly reduce the cost of comprehensive financing.

[the US budget deficit hit a record high in June due to a surge in spending due to bail-outs for small businesses] the US budget deficit reached a record high in June as federal spending more than tripled year-on-year in response to the economic impact of the new crown epidemic. The budget deficit widened to $864.1 billion in June, reflecting a record $1.1 trillion in spending, much of which came from the pay protection scheme.

On the afternoon of July 13, local time, the Bolivian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced through its official social account that Minister of Foreign Affairs Langarika (Karen Longaric) tested positive for the new crown virus. It is reported that Langarika is currently asymptomatic and is in home isolation. Prior to this, the Bolivian interim government, the Minister of Affairs of the Presidential Office, the Minister of Mining, the Minister of Health and the Minister of Justice have also been diagnosed.

[the latest trend of the global epidemic: the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 13.22 million] according to Worldometers world real-time statistics, as of 07:05 on July 14, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide exceeded 13.22 million, reaching 13220393, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 574000, reaching 574803. The cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States is the largest in the world, exceeding 3.47 million to 3476044, and the cumulative number of deaths is more than 138000, reaching 138191.

Terminal information

[electric carmaker Rivian gets $2.5 billion in financing. Amazon, a longtime shareholder, recently raised $2.5 billion in financing for electric carmaker Rivian. In this round of financing, T. Rowe Price led the investment of, Soros Fund Management, Coatue, Fidelity Management and Research Company, Baron Capital Group, and existing shareholders Amazon and BlackRock. This is the largest round of financing for Rivian to date.

[BYD launches its first model with blade battery, "Han" Huawei 5G technology.] on the evening of July 12, BYD launched its new "Han" model, which includes three "Han" EV and a "Han" DM. It is understood that the "Han" EV is the world's first car with a blade battery, while Huawei and BYD will jointly build the "Han", which will be the world's first mass-produced car equipped with Huawei 5G technology.

Toyota: the company will restart its plant in Venezuela on Monday (July 13), which means all factories in South America will be operational. In addition, the company has reopened all its factories in Japan, North America and Europe. Now, for the first time in about five months, the carmaker has opened all its factories.

[Daimler plans to expand layoffs will exceed 15000] it is reported that Wilfried Porth, head of human resources at Daimler Group, said in an interview with German news agency DPA that the company will need to lay off more than the 15000 employees previously announced. Porth did not disclose the exact number of layoffs, but said, "the new layoffs will exceed the previously announced figures, which is necessary for the group." "View details

Related market

National Energy Administration: in June, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 635 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 6.1 percent over the same period last year. From January to June, the electricity consumption of the whole society totaled 3.3547 trillion kilowatt hours, down 1.3 percent from the same period last year.

Source: Saudi crude oil exports in August will remain at the same level as in July. In view of the rising local demand for power generation in August, the increased capacity will be mainly used domestically.

[the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an investment of 9.3 billion yuan in the central budget to support the construction of ecological civilization in various localities] according to the National Development and Reform Commission, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has allocated an investment of 9.3 billion yuan in the central budget to support the construction of a number of key projects such as urban domestic sewage and garbage treatment, resource conservation and recycling, and environmental pollution control, so as to make up for the weaknesses and weaknesses of urban environmental infrastructure, promote the efficient use of energy resources, and help fight a tough battle for pollution prevention and control. In the next step, the NDRC will guide and urge all localities to speed up the implementation of investment plans and projects within the central budget, form a physical workload as soon as possible, earnestly give full play to the benefits of investment within the central budget, and speed up the construction of ecological civilization.

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