[SMM Metal Breakfast] the epidemic in South America pushed up copper prices * Electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 7000 tons per week * Nickel pig iron production increased slightly by 0.81% in June compared with the previous month.

[overnight market] US stocks have mixed ups and downs, most of the outer disk metals are up 0.98 per cent, Lun Copper is up 0.98 per cent.

Forecast of Today's Financial and Economic data: the United States releases the annual rate of PPI in June

Today's focus

[national Bureau of Statistics interprets June CPI and PPI data] CPI continues to decline month-on-month, with year-on-year increases slightly expanding. PPI month-on-month from decline to rise, year-on-year decline narrowed. In June, international commodity prices picked up, domestic manufacturing recovered steadily, and market demand continued to improve. On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose 0.4 per cent from 0.4 per cent last month. Among them, the price of the means of production has changed from 0.5% to 0.5%, and the price of the means of subsistence has changed from 0.3% to 0.1%.

[Bureau of Statistics: the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed in June compared with the same period last year.] in June 2020, factory gate prices across the country fell 3.0% from a year earlier, narrowing the decline from a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. Industrial producer purchase prices fell 4.4% year-on-year and rose 0.4% from a month earlier. In the first half of the year, factory gate prices of industrial producers fell by 1.9% compared with the same period last year, and purchase prices of industrial producers fell by 2.6%.

[SMM summary review: the epidemic in South America continues to spread and copper prices continue to rise (with the latest developments in mines in Chile)] the epidemic continues to ferment in South American countries led by Chile. It is reported that 2843 workers in Chile's national copper industry (Codelco) have been infected with the new crown virus. As of July 5, the mines hardest hit by Codelco were El Teniente and Chuquicamata, with 1044 new crown cases and 636 new crown cases respectively, and the infection rate of new crowns in other mining areas is also gradually rising. Affected by this, the market's concern about the supply side is becoming more and more obvious. "check the details."

[SMM data: inventory days set new record low electrolytic aluminum inventory week dropped 7000 tons to 712000 tons] July 9, inventory days hit a new low. SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory weekly dropped 7000 tons to 712000 tons. "check the details.

[SMM data: the inventory of aluminum bars out of storage in East China has increased by 900 tons to 72300 tons compared with last Thursday.] the inventory of aluminum bars in East China has increased by 900 tons to 72300 tons compared with last Thursday. Inventory in Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanchang declined, while inventory in Foshan and Huzhou increased, with a larger increase in inventory in Foshan. "check the details."

[new Zealand officials expressed disappointment at Rio Tinto's decision to close the aluminum smelter during the special period] Rio Tinto (RioTinto) said on Thursday that it would close the New Zealand aluminum smelter because of high costs and difficult market conditions. The decision put more than 1000 jobs at risk and dealt a heavy blow to New Zealand's power giant. New Zealand aluminum smelter is the largest electricity user in China, with annual electricity consumption of about 5 trillion kilowatt hours, equivalent to about 12% of the country's total electricity consumption. The annual output of high-grade aluminum in the plant is 340000 tons.

[SMM analysis: ignoring the fundamentals, hot money pouring into Shanghai zinc surged by more than 4%] in terms of fundamentals, the supply side, the domestic side, entered July, the domestic smelter raw material inventory level returned to normal, the current average raw material inventory days is about 28 days, the smelter raw material shortage problem has been basically solved, mainly to resume work and return to production. Superimposed less overhaul of smelters in July, domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase by 26400 tons to 491800 tons month-on-month in July. "check the details.

[SMM data: national nickel pig iron production increased slightly by 0.81% month-on-month to 44600 nickel tons last month.] National nickel pig iron production increased by 0.81% month-on-month to 44600 nickel tons in June, down 9.85% from the same period last year. In terms of grade, the output of high nickel iron in June was 37500 nickel tons, an increase of 1.44% over the previous month, while that of low nickel iron was 7100 nickel tons in June, down 2.43% from the previous month. The output of nickel pig iron increased slightly in June, mainly related to the release of some new production capacity of high nickel pig iron.

[iron ore futures break through the 800 mark to hit a nearly one-year high] Iron ore opened early yesterday morning, iron ore once extended the rising trend of night trading, breaking 800 points in one fell swoop, a nearly one-year high. But then the upward momentum was insufficient and fell back. As of press time, the iron ore 09 contract rose 0.9% to 788 yuan / ton. The main contracts of thread and hot coil are both up more than 3700 points. "check the details."

[SMM thread: can steel prices continue to rebound when the speed of accumulation slows down? This week, the threaded stock continues to accumulate under the continuous interference of seasonal precipitation, but thanks to the decline of production, the improvement of terminal demand due to the improvement of the epidemic in the north and the south, and the expected strength of the market, the rate of inventory accumulation slowed down significantly this week. as of July 9, the national total inventory of building materials was 10.6759 million tons, month-on-month + 0.7%, year-on-year + 32.2%. "check the details.

SMM Hot Volume inventory: can you still ride the wind and waves with the continuation of the volume price? This week, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil is 3.6332 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.89% and + 8.5% compared with the same period last year. Production of hot rolls this week has increased compared with the previous period, but under the stimulus of a sharp rise in volume, the market turnover is better than last week. Under the background of the increase in supply and the stability of demand, the hot volume continues to weigh on the treasury, and the growth rate is higher than that of the previous period to maintain stability. "check the details.

[SMM hot rolling scheduling report: the planned volume of hot coil commodities increased by 5.9% in July, the price highlight is about to fade away? According to SMM's latest tracking, the planned hot-rolled commodity production of 35 mainstream hot-rolled steel mills surveyed totaled 9.9164 million tons in July, an increase of 5.9% over the actual hot-rolled commodity output in June. "check the details.

[Shagang Forecast & SMM Forecast: it is estimated that the flat price difference of rebar in Shagang in mid-July is 80mur130 yuan / ton] it is estimated that the flat price difference of rebar in Shagang in mid-July is 80mur130 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade large snail (ex-factory price is 3850 yuan / ton), the warehouse cost in East China is 3800 yuan / ton, and the factory cost is 3750 yuan / ton. "check the details.

[important: the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation total quantity control indicators issued in 2020] rare earths are products that the state strictly implements the control and management of total production, and no unit or individual may produce without or exceeding targets. The total amount control targets of the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2020 are 66000 tons and 63500 tons respectively (see Annex 1 for group decomposition).

[China Metallurgical Group has successively issued three international standards led by China Metallurgical Science and Industry Group] recently, there has been good news about the international standardization work of China Metallurgical Science and Industry Group, and three international standards led by China Metallurgical Group have been issued one after another. They are: a ISO international standard "corrosion Simulation of Metals and Alloys in Marine Environment, determination of corrosion rate of reinforcement in concrete structures" led by China Metallurgical Architectural Research Institute Co., Ltd. (ISO 21062 / Mir 2020), etc.

Important news of metals and industry

[high-performance special aluminum production workshop construction of Huajian Aluminum Plant No. 5 Branch] Shandong Province key construction project Huajian Aluminum Co., Ltd. High-performance special aluminum project is a key construction project in Shandong Province. the core project of Linyi County High-end Aluminum processing Industrial Park, with a total investment of 1.6 billion yuan, planning land of 674 mu and construction area of 420000 square meters. The project has a new fine and deep processing production line, a fully automatic surface treatment center and an intelligent packaging and storage system, with an annual production capacity of 150000 tons.

[Chinalco Guinean alumina project successfully passed Guinean government review] recently, the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources of the Guinean government organized relevant experts to review the "Feasibility study report of Guinean Alumina Project of Chinalco Hong Kong Co., Ltd." submitted by Shenyang Institute. In view of the impact of the epidemic, the evaluation meeting was held by video. Li Wangxing, Technical Director of Chinalco, and Chen Xuesen, General Manager of Investment Department, attended the meeting to "check the details."

[SMM analysis: all the lead in Shanghai can't hold back! At the end of Wulianyin pulled a new high] SMM believes that the supply side of primary lead is a little tight, and downstream consumption is basically in a state of digesting inventory, but it is affected by capital disturbance, and warehouse receipt inventory is seriously insufficient, and the overall trend of Shanghai lead is strong in the short term. "check the details.

[note: the first quantum intermediate has arrived in Hong Kong to pre-increase the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials] according to SMM research, the first quantum intermediate has been delivered to the nickel sulfate plant in the past two days. This batch of intermediate is expected to arrive in Hong Kong 10 days ago. Due to the need for customs clearance and other procedures, it has gone through a waiting time of one week to half a month. SMM predicts that after the first quantum intermediate arrives in July, on the one hand, the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials will be increased. The total output of nickel sulfate may increase in July. On the other hand, according to SMM, the price of this batch of raw materials is more competitive than that of similar intermediate products, which may be helpful for the purchasers of nickel sulfate to reduce the cost of raw materials.

On the afternoon of October 20, 2019, Indonesian President Joko Widodo was sworn in for a second five-year term. In his subsequent inaugural speech, he made a "2045 ambition": during the centenary of independence in 2045, Indonesia wants to achieve the goal of a gross domestic product of 7 trillion US dollars and a per capita annual income of 320 million rupiah. To become the world's fifth largest economy. "check the details.

[analysis of SMM lithium electricity data in June: LG chemical installation continues to exceed BYD lithium iron phosphate in passenger vehicles to 9%] according to the SMM new energy database, the production of new energy vehicles in June was 91000, an increase of 21.4% from the previous month. Tesla still ranks first in electric car production this month, but it is down 9.5% from may. In addition, the output of SAIC GM Wuling, SAIC, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Automobile and the new car-building forces Lai, Xiaopeng and Weima all increased month-on-month; the installed capacity of power batteries was 4.7 GWH, a decrease of 28.9% over the same period last year and an increase of 33.9% from the previous month. In June, the proportion of iron-lithium passenger cars increased from 4% to 9%. The main increments are SAIC GM Wuling, Dongfeng Xiaokang and brilliance Xinyuan. "check the details.

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (9th)] Liantie concussion operation, the port spot market early quotation steady rise. Traders are active in shipping, but the quotation is relatively strong; some steel enterprises purchase on demand, and the overall turnover is lower than that of the previous two days. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is 800mur805 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 815 yuan / ton. The overall transaction price is mixed compared with yesterday. "check the details.

[SMM summary: gold breaks through the 1800 mark to rise or fall in the next stage? Gold prices rose moderately, with spot gold in London successfully breaking above $1800 an ounce, its highest level since October 2011. TD gold rose moderately in the previous session, closing at 399.40 yuan / kg, up 2.84 yuan. At the macro level, the intensification and deterioration of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States, Brazil and other countries has aroused investors' concern. Geopolitical risks, trade frictions and loose policies in various countries have led to an unabated bullish atmosphere in the gold market. The current gold price has exceeded 1800 points. For the next stage, will the gold price continue to rise or peak and fall? "check the details.

[Minmetals rare Earth: Jianghua rare Earth Mine is under active construction] recently, some investors have asked Minmetals rare earths how much progress has been completed in the construction of Minmetals rare Earth Group Jianghua Mine. There are only five months left in 2020. The shares of the rare Earth Group have been transferred to Minmetals Nonferrous. Will there be no competition in the industry, and Xinghua rare earths will not have to be injected into listed companies? The company replied that it is understood that Jianghua rare earth mine is actively under construction. "check the details."

[northern rare earths: July listing prices announced praseodymium-neodymium and neodymium products prices] China North rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. announced the listing price of light rare earths in July, showing an overall upward pattern. Neodymium oxide and metal neodymium rose by more than 5%, to 335000 yuan / ton and 420000 yuan / ton, respectively, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose 2.8% and 2.6% to 318600 yuan / ton and 399000 yuan / ton, respectively.

[Guocheng Mining acquires Yubang Mining to control the largest silver mine in China] Guocheng Mining announced on the evening of July 8 that after resource verification, audit and evaluation procedures carried out by a number of professional institutions, the company intends to adjust the investment plan proposed in Chifeng Yubang Mining Co., Ltd at the beginning of the year: from 34% shareholding to 65% holding, and the transaction consideration from about 360 million yuan to 980 million yuan. "check the details.

[Ivanhoe: Zijin Mining Kakula Copper Mine project is progressing faster than expected] the underground development project of Zijin Mining's Kakula Copper Mine is ahead of the target plan, and the construction of the concentrator and other surface infrastructure is progressing smoothly. Production will be completed in the third quarter of 2021 as planned. At present, more than 17 kilometers of underground development projects have been completed, exceeding the set target of 5.1 kilometers, and the mining team's excavation in June is 575 meters ahead of the monthly plan. Part of the development roadway in Kakula extends to high-grade ore sections with a copper grade of more than 8%.

[SMM data: stainless steel production reached its peak in the first half of the year in June and is expected to remain relatively stable in July] according to SMM research, national stainless steel production in June totaled about 2.5529 million tons, an increase of 162000 tons over May, an increase of about 6.81 percent from the previous month, and an increase of 4.73 percent over the same period last year. The output of stainless steel of all series increased in June, with a larger increase of 400 series.

According to the latest comprehensive sales statistics of the Automobile Market Research Branch of China Automobile Circulation Association, the sales volume of domestic narrow passenger vehicles reached 1.661 million in June, down 5.9% from the same period last year. 3.3% month-on-month increase in cumulative sales of 771.2 vehicles from January to June, down 22.5% from the same period last year.

[Shandong Province puts forward guidance on unorganized emission control one by one for 18 key industries such as non-ferrous metals] recently, the Shandong Provincial Department of Ecological Environment issued the "guidance on sub-industry management and control of unorganized emissions from industrial enterprises in Shandong Province." we will strengthen the in-depth control of unorganized emissions from industrial enterprises. Guidance for 18 key industries, such as iron and steel, building materials, non-ferrous, thermal power, foundry, etc., to put forward guidance on unorganized emission control one by one. "View details."

Macro focus

[executive meeting of the State Council: deploy measures to further do a good job in flood control and disaster relief and promote the construction of major water conservancy projects] to determine measures to continuously optimize the business environment to stimulate the vitality of the main body of the market. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative precipitation in the whole country is obviously more than that in the same period of the year, and the rainfall is concentrated, and some areas are seriously affected. Recently, there is still heavy rainfall in most parts of the south, and it is predicted that the rain area will lift northward in the next step. The north and south have entered the main flood season in an all-round way, and flood control will enter the critical period of "seven under eight".

[central bank: on July 1st, Hebei Province comprehensively carried out the pilot work of large cash management] the deposit and deposit of more than 100000 yuan should be registered. Subsequently, the Internet spread the news that "the transfer of money exceeding 100000 will be strictly checked." In response, the central bank responded that the news was made out of nothing and was obviously inconsistent with the pilot policy on large amounts of cash.

[Ministry of Commerce: will actively support Hong Kong and Macao enterprises] make full use of the institutional advantages of "one country, two systems" to open up the mainland market, strengthen the building of their own brands, and establish a mainland marketing network. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce, together with various departments, drafted the opinions on promoting the High-quality Development of Oil products Circulation, which has been revised and improved on the basis of openly soliciting opinions and suggestions from all walks of life, and is currently implementing relevant procedures, which will be introduced in the near future.

In order to counter France's plan to impose a digital tax on technology giants including Amazon, Google and Facebook, the United States plans to release more details of its long-term battle with it. The US tariff list could target between $500m and $700m of goods, including French wine, cheese and handbags, according to two people familiar with the matter. The US could announce it as soon as Friday, but the implementation date will be postponed until France introduces a digital tax later this year, according to one of the people familiar with the matter.

Terminal information

[more convenient to charge, Alipay has covered 95% of the charging piles] on July 8, Alipay released the latest data, covering 95% of the national charging pile network. Through the sesame credit score, users do not need to recharge, they can recharge directly. In 2019, Alipay launched the "Ant charging" mini program, aggregating a number of charging pile platforms. At present, special calls, star charging, interbank technology, fast power and other charging service platforms have been connected to Alipay. Electric car owners do not need another pile of App, to open Alipay to use the vast majority of charging piles.

[Sinopec will reach 884 million yuan in net profit in the first half of 1.6 billion.] on July 7, Sinopec disclosed its 2020 semi-annual results Express report. During the reporting period, the company's overall operating performance continued to improve, achieving operating income of 7.588 billion yuan, an increase of 25.08% over the same period last year, and total profits of 1.066 billion yuan, an increase of 34.93% over the same period last year. The net profit attributed to the shareholders of the listed company was 884 million yuan, an increase of 34.93% over the same period last year.

[June Chinese car dealer inventory is above the warning line] on July 8, the China Automobile Circulation Association released the results of a survey of "car dealer inventory" in June 2020: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in June was 1.74, up 26.1% from a year earlier, up 12.3% from the previous month, and the inventory level is above the warning line.

[Mexican car production and exports rose sharply in June compared with May] official figures released by Mexico on July 7 showed that car production and exports in Mexico rebounded in June compared with May, but still fell significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same month, Mexican car production surged nearly 11-fold to 238946 from 22119 in May, but it was still down 29.3% from the same period last year. Car exports were 13 times higher than in May, rising from 15088 to 196173, but down 38.8 per cent from the same period last year.

[JMP analyst: Tesla is expected to deliver 750000 vehicles in 2021] Tesla's second-quarter delivery exceeded analysts' expectations, and Tesla's shares rose 13.48% on July 6 alone, closing at $1371.58. For a company whose share price was as low as $211 a year ago, this is really impressive. By the end of 2020, the company will deliver an average of more than 120000 vehicles a quarter, which could enable Tesla to deliver more than 750000 vehicles in 2021.

Related market

[interest rate] overnight shibor was 2.1890%, up 10.10 basis points. Seven-day shibor was 2.1920%, up 5.50bp. Three-month shibor was 2.122%, up 1.10bp.

[WTI crude falls below $40 a barrel, a level long to be a floor price] traders said the sharp fall in US stocks fuelled the sell-off in the oil market, as well as concerns about the growth of crude oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma. The increase in new crown pneumonia cases hurt the economic recovery, leading to another decline in crude oil and fuel demand.

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