SMM: in the early morning of the 3rd, U. S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, and the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high. Investors are still watching the epidemic and economic data, with non-farm payrolls growing at an all-time high in June. The epidemic in the United States has rebounded recently, and many states have announced a suspension and restart.
The Dow closed up 92.39 points, or 0.36%, at 25827.36; the Nasdaq was up 53.00 points, or 0.52%, at 10207.63; and the S & P 500 was up 14.15, or 0.45%, at 3130.01.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq rose as high as 10310.36 points, an all-time high. Technology companies such as Amazon (2890.3,11.60,0.40%) (AMZN), Tesla (1208.66,89.03,7.95%) (TSLA) and Microsoft (206.26,1.56,0.76%) (MSFT) all hit record highs.
The fourth of July (Saturday) is an Independence Day holiday in the United States, and U. S. stocks will be closed on Friday. U. S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq hitting an all-time high. Pfizer (34.51, 0.77, 2.28%) pharmaceutical company (PFE) 's candidate coronary disease du vaccine clinical trials made progress, the Federal Reserve promised to continue to provide loose monetary policy, giving U. S. stocks a boost.
According to the epidemic statistics of Johns Hopkins University, there were 50700 new confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States on July 1, the highest number of new cases in a single day. Record-breaking increases in coronavirus infections could set a volatile tone for the market in the second half of the year.
Data released by the Florida Department of Health on July 2 showed that the state had 10109 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia in a single day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 169106. It is by far the highest number of confirmed cases in a single day in the state.
After New Jersey, New York City also announced plans to postpone the reopening of in-room dining. Outside the New York metropolis, there has also been a sharp increase in coronavirus infections. The surge in infections in California has prompted the state to suspend indoor activities such as dinners to contain the spread of the virus.
But in the second quarter, US stocks rebounded astonishingly, with all three major indexes posting their best quarterly performance since 1998. In the second quarter, the s & p 500 rose nearly 20%, the Dow rose about 17.5%, and the Nasdaq rose more than 30%.
Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 4.8 million in June to an all-time high.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that non-farm payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, a record high, with an expected increase of 3 million, while the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month to 12.3 percent at 11.1 percent in June.
The Labor Department said non-farm payrolls were revised down by 100000 in April (from-20.7 million to-20.8 million) and up by 190000 in May (from 251st to 2.7 million).
The Labor Department said employment in the leisure and hotel sectors rose sharply in June, as did retail trade, education, health services, manufacturing, professional and business services.
The good performance of non-farmers in June was expected, and now market participants are worried about whether the situation will worsen again in July and beyond. The reason for this concern is that the number of confirmed new crown infections across the United States has risen sharply since the multi-state restart was announced in June, with more than 800000 new cases nationwide that month and a number of severely affected southern states suspending the restart.
Public health experts in the United States say that many states have restarted their economies too early and too quickly without confirming that the number of coronavirus infections has dropped to a certain extent, causing damage to the economic recovery. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stressed on Thursday that the United States is still mired in the first wave of the epidemic.
It is worth noting that there may be misleading information about non-farmers in June. Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, pointed out that the survey of employment data was conducted in the week of June 12, when the epidemic in the southern states of the United States had not yet rebounded on a large scale. Two weeks later, more than 250000 Americans were diagnosed with coronavirus. in the three days of last weekend alone, more than 40, 000 cases were confirmed nationwide in the United States. But these facts are not reflected in the employment data survey in mid-June.
Business Insider said the non-farm data reflected US efforts to press ahead with the restart plan in the first half of June. However, in the past two weeks not covered by the report, the surge in coronavirus infections has raised doubts about the path to economic recovery.
Separate data from the Labor Department showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was 1.427 million, compared with market expectations of 1.35 million. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the previous week was revised to 1.482 million.
Under the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States has exceeded 1 million for 15 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative total of about 48 million. Among them, unemployment was the most serious in March and April. The labour market has improved since May as the US economy restarts. Last week was the 13th week in a row that the number of first-time jobless claims fell.
Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate fell to 11.1% in June, down from 13.3% in May, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the same day. Although the unemployment data continues to improve, it is still higher than the peak of the recession triggered by the international financial crisis, and the situation is not optimistic. With the recent rebound in the epidemic, many states have announced a suspension and restart, and some economists warn that the current data may not be enough to reflect the actual situation. With signs of a new round of shutdowns emerging, the market fears that the actual unemployment situation could be even worse.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, according to the CME Fed Watch, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates in the 0.5% range of 0% Mo in July is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% will be 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the range of 0% Mo 0.25% in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.
Analysts say non-farm data for June are mixed
After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the Associated Press said that the United States added 4.8 million jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent, but the outlook for further employment growth was darkened by the viral pandemic.
Non-farm payrolls were well expected in June, but the wage data were disappointing again.
Dansk Bank believes that the judgment of the market is clear, and the June non-farm report is by no means a change in the rules of the game, but on the whole it is relatively moderate.
Although wage growth remained slow in June, the non-farm report reinforced the impression that the US economy was stronger than other economies in the short term and could encourage the Fed to raise interest rates at least once more this year in an environment of uncertain trade policy, said Allianz's chief economic adviser.
Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed out that the survey of employment data was conducted in the week of June 12. At that time, the epidemic in the southern states of the United States had not yet rebounded on a large scale. Two weeks later, more than 250000 Americans were diagnosed with new crown pneumonia. In the three days of last weekend alone, there were more than 40, 000 confirmed cases nationwide, but these facts were not reflected in the employment data survey in mid-June.
The analysis said the employment report did not reflect the surge in coronavirus infections; for anyone concerned about the employment data and the confirmed rise in coronavirus cases in many major states, the June employment report did not reflect the rise in cases. because the survey took place at the beginning of the month, and the rise in cases occurred later.
Congressional Budget Office: GDP will shrink by 5.9% this year
The US economy will contract more severely this year than previously forecast, but there will also be a bigger rebound in 2021, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Thursday.
The latest economic forecast released on Thursday by the non-partisan CBO shows that US gross domestic product will shrink by 5.9 per cent in 2020 and grow by 4.8 per cent next year. In its forecast on may 19th, the CBO expects the economy to contract by 5.6 per cent this year and grow by 4.2 per cent in 2021.
The agency said it expected the job market to improve slightly more this year and next, but still much weaker than it was before the coronavirus pandemic. The average unemployment rate this year and next is expected to be 10.6% and 8.4% respectively, compared with previous forecasts of 11.5% and 9.3%, respectively.
The forecast reflects the information as of June 26, and data released earlier Thursday showed stronger-than-expected job growth in June.
The economic impact of pandemic-related blockades will last for several years, especially for those who are about to or have just entered the labour market. The Congressional Budget Office expects the unemployment rate to average 6.3% in 2023-2024. GDP growth averages 2.2%.
Fed official: it will take at least four or five years for the US economy to recover
San Francisco Fed President Daley painted a bleak picture of the U. S. economic outlook Wednesday. She said that even under her best-case scenario, the unemployment rate would still exceed 10% by the end of the year and would not return to pre-crisis levels for four or five years.
"if we can bring public health problems under control through really strong mitigation strategies or vaccines, then we can quickly get back into economic activity, which could only take four or five years," Daley said. but if the economy ends up suffering a widespread and lasting blow, it may take longer. "
Since the end of June, several states have scaled back or suspended economic restart measures, making it impossible for some people to go to work. The impact of these decisions will not be reflected in the June employment report, which was surveyed in mid-June. During the Great Depression, the monthly unemployment rate in the United States never exceeded 10%; in February 2020, it was 3.5% before a massive shutdown of economic activity to slow the spread of the virus.
Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell acknowledged that economic activity had rebounded, saying the economy had "entered an important new phase and has been faster than expected." But he warned that the outlook was "very uncertain" and would depend on "our ability to successfully contain the virus".
The Fed released the minutes of its last policy meeting yesterday, saying the outlook for the US economy remained highly uncertain and reiterated that a full recovery depended on whether the epidemic could be brought under control. The minutes sent a signal about the Fed's economic forecasts, and policymakers were pessimistic about the economic outlook.
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