SMM5, March 20: in 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, zinc prices fell sharply and enterprises were restricted to resume work, affecting downstream zinc consumption, but at present, the domestic epidemic has been controlled and more overseas countries have relaxed epidemic prevention and control measures, and the economy has been restarted one after another. since February, the operating rate of zinc oxide has shown a continuous upward trend, but it is still not as good as the same period last year. According to SMM, the operating rate of zinc oxide was 41.51% in April, up 2.4% from the previous month and down 13.99% from a year earlier. As for the tire industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of terminal consumption of zinc oxide, export orders have been blocked and have also been affected to a certain extent.
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After the introduction of various consumption stimulus policies in China, automobile production and sales showed positive growth compared with the same period last year, coupled with an increase in the proportion of private car travel under the influence of the epidemic, driving the freezing point of sales of the tire industry. At the same time, with the resumption of the economy in Europe and the United States, automobile production is also expected to resume. Some enterprises have reported that some foreign trade orders can already leave the port, and it is expected that the impact of foreign trade in the tire industry is expected to be lifted slowly. But it may be difficult to achieve positive growth during the year.
The ice corner of the tire industry is melting, but the pressure is still there. Sino-US trade problems have heated up in the past two years and show no sign of stopping.
Over the past decade or so, the United States has conducted several anti-dumping investigations against Chinese tires, such as anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese cars and light truck tires exported to the United States in 2014. This is the largest amount of trade relief measures suffered by China's tire industry. Once the double counter-case is established and the high tax rates of 60.15% and 25.73% are levied, then the Chinese products involved cannot be exported to the United States at all. It will affect nearly one million workers in China's tire and rubber products industry.
Recently, the United Steelworkers of the United States submitted a new round of trade investigation applications to the US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission, requiring passenger car and light truck tire products from South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan of China to initiate anti-dumping investigations and anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against the same products from Vietnam. Although the "double reverse" survey does not involve mainland China, Chinese tire enterprises have carried out global capacity layout in recent years, including in South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and other places. Therefore, China's tire enterprises can not be affected.
Under the double impact at home and abroad, China's tire industry is carrying a heavy load. Xu Wenying, deputy secretary general of China Rubber Industry Association, analyzed that from a macro point of view, the increasing downward pressure on China's economy, the decline in new car sales, the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions, and the investigation of "double reversals" of Chinese tires by many countries are the main reasons. From a specific point of view, first of all, China's tire industry overcapacity, mainly low-end overcapacity; second, tire enterprises rely too much on exports; Third, a magic weapon for Chinese tire enterprises to participate in the international market competition is that the product cost is low, but it also means that customers do not recognize its value. Chinese tire enterprises fighting a "price war" is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst.
In such a severe environment, the relevant policies of the tire industry also have a great impact on the development of enterprises, as follows:
New regulations on comprehensive utilization and management of waste tires officially released
On May 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Industry Standard conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of waste tires (2020)" and the "interim measures for the Administration of Industry norms for Comprehensive Utilization of waste tires (2020)". It will be implemented as of June 1.
In the standard conditions, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology makes it clear that the comprehensive utilization of waste tires refers to the processing of waste tires and the realization of resource utilization, including refurbishment of old tires, production of recycled rubber, rubber powder, and pyrolysis.
The new specification also makes corresponding provisions on the technology, equipment, technology and energy consumption index for the comprehensive utilization of waste tires.
In addition, in the new norms, the requirements of environmental protection are also very strict. Standardize and encourage qualified enterprises to carry out the construction of intelligent factories, the application of automated intelligent equipment, and gradually achieve intelligent management.
The State Council has issued a heavy policy to ease the pressure on enterprises.
On February 18, the Premier of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, which decided to reduce and reduce enterprise social security premiums in stages and implement the policy of holding back the payment of housing provident fund by enterprises, and take more measures to stabilize the employment of enterprises. These relief measures can reduce the cost pressure of enterprises to a certain extent. The meeting also called for the urgent promulgation of scientifically classified and realistic guidelines for epidemic prevention and resumption of work, to guide all localities to reasonably determine the conditions for resumption of work and production, to abolish unnecessary deposits, and to speed up the implementation of fiscal, taxation, financial, and other support policies already issued.
In addition, the meeting stressed that individual industrial and commercial households are important main bodies of employment, and it is necessary to study and introduce supporting policies as soon as possible.
And most of the terminal stores that sell tires are individual industrial and commercial households. After the introduction of targeted policies, they can solve some of the problems they face.
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology cancels tire access documents
On November 15, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice and decided to abolish 26 documents related to the management of raw material industry norms (access) conditions, such as "ammonium phosphate industry access conditions", "synthetic NH3 industry access conditions" and so on. It contains three tire industry access documents.
The new regulation requires that the specification of the tire shall not be changed.
The new version of the Motor vehicle Inspection regulations issued by the Ministry of Public Security will be formally implemented on September 1, 2019. Among them, it is said that for car owners who like to refit, under the premise of ensuring that the main structure and safety of motor vehicles will not be changed, luggage racks can be added or modified, but it should be noted that the added value of vehicle height should not exceed 300mm after retrofitting. Similarly, under the premise that the length and width of the vehicle body and the main body structure and safety of the vehicle are not changed, the owner can install pedals, bumpers, and replace the heat dissipation mask and wheel rim style, but the tire specifications shall not be changed.
Two mandatory national standards for tires will be revised soon
In April 2019, the National Standardization Management Committee plans to revise a number of mandatory national standards. Among them, the two standards of "car tire (20190068-Q-339)" and "truck tire (20190072-Q-339)" have entered the revised list issued by the State Standards Commission. "View details
In 2019, global trade disputes escalated, the global economy was under pressure, and central banks began a wave of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that at present and for some time to come, the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement will remain unchanged, and 2020 will also be the year when China will build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the 13th five-year Plan ends. In this context, the new crown virus is rampant all over the world, and it is worth looking forward to how to achieve steady economic growth.
In the zinc market, the production of overseas mines increased step by step in 2019, but the production of domestic mines was repeatedly hindered. In the first quarter of 2020, zinc prices fell below the mine cost line, and mine profits plummeted. How will the profits of smelters and mines be distributed in 2020? can overseas mines be expected to be put into production under the disturbance of the epidemic? In addition, the output of domestic zinc refining smelters broke through the bottleneck and set a new record in 2019, but under the disturbance at the supply end of zinc mines in 2020, can the capacity utilization rate of smelters maintain a high load? Whether the infrastructure investment under the tone of "stabilizing the economy" in 2020 can exceed the expected performance, whether the galvanizing industry can exceed the seasonal performance is still worth looking forward to, and the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc may be reversed in 2020, so paying attention to and distributing structural opportunities is another choice. Can zinc prices fall and rise in 2020?
In response to the above topics, SMM will invite industry celebrities, industry professionals, enterprises from the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain to hold the "2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit" in Changsha to jointly discuss the current situation and problems of the industry, as well as the future development prospects, and analyze the fundamentals and the future trend of zinc prices.
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