Nickel price judgment: the weakening of nickel price is contrary to the firm trading direction of nickel pig iron, the spot consumption of nickel is not very optimistic, and there is still no obvious accumulation, mainly because the import volume is less than expected. under the weak supply and demand, the price trend lags behind the nickel pig iron with better fundamentals; compared with pure nickel, the performance of nickel pig iron is better, the transaction price and volume are improved, and the role of positive feedback in the industrial chain continues. In addition, although Indonesia's new mining industry speculated this week whether Indonesia will re-export nickel mines, according to the normal logic of reading its documents, there is no sign of re-opening nickel ore exports, which is intertwined with emptiness. Considering the standoff of stainless steel and the basic performance of nickel itself, there is no significant contradiction in the industry for the time being. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in the range this week. Due to the deep decline last week, there is also some room for pullback. This week, the range of Shanghai Nickel 98000lle 103000 yuan / ton, Lunni 11700Lue US $12300 / ton.
1. Nickel prices in the last cycle fluctuated widely during the day, showing a step-by-step downward trend during the week, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market gradually warmed up as the nickel price fell below 100000. Russo nickel holders limited room for price reduction, the next few days are stable in the 2006 contract flat to rise 100 yuan / ton, until Friday trading volume improved significantly. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract liter water is between 1000Mel 1400 yuan / ton, the downstream side takes the goods on demand, does not have the big order transaction. Due to the close delivery of the Shanghai Nickel 05 contract, after the drop in nickel prices, deliverable brands such as Bofeng Nickel and Jinchuan Electrodeposited Nickel also have a certain turnover, but generally speaking, the consumption power of pure nickel is weak, and the decline in spot inventory has slowed down compared with the previous period. It is expected that traders will gradually turn to 07 contract quotations next week, and Russian nickel is expected to be quoted between 200 and 100 yuan / ton; Jinchuan nickel to 07 contract premium will remain above 1000 yuan / ton.
2. On May 15, the price of high-nickel pig iron is 970mur990 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as that of the previous trading day. According to SMM, a large stainless steel factory in the south newly purchased 10, 000 tons of high nickel pig iron on Thursday, which is Indonesian iron. The price is 995 to 5 yuan per nickel point (including factory tax). Whether the floating price adjustment of 5 yuan needs to be adjusted according to the imported nickel price in recent days. Last week, the transaction is still mainly for large stainless steel factories in the south to replenish a large amount of demand, and the market price to the factory exceeds 1000 yuan. With the correction of nickel futures in recent days, Compared with pure nickel, the sticker of nickel pig iron has shrunk to 17 yuan / nickel point. Recently, the price of ferronickel may continue to remain high, and whether the 1000-yuan mark can be stable still needs to pay attention to whether the price of stainless steel can continue to be strong this week.
On May 15, the price of 304mm cold rolling market in Wuxi was slightly reduced by 50 yuan / ton, the price range of rough edge crimping price of 304 NO.1 2B was 13500 won 13900 yuan / ton, the price of trimming crimping of 304thumb 2B factory was 13800 won 14000 yuan / ton, the average price was unchanged, and the average price was 13,100 won 13300 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan lower than that of Thursday. In the past two days, the transaction is weak, and the price in the stainless steel market has been slightly lowered. According to traders, the delivery volume of cold rolling steel mills is relatively small, and the current decline is smaller than that of hot rolling. However, the supply of spot goods in the overall market is not much, some of the specifications are out of stock, and the pre-term order goods have not yet been fully delivered. For 10:30 SHFE SS2007 contract price is 13315 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water is 355mur755 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton)